Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (4 lettori)

[tommy271]

FinMin: State Deficit At €10,26b



According to the data available for the execution of the State Budget for the five months January – May 2011, on fiscal basis, the deficit amounts to 10,260 million euros compared to the target of 9,072 million euros set in the 2011 Budget. During the same period in 2010, the State Budget deficit amounted to 9,100 million Euros, said the Finance Ministry in a statement.

On State Budget for the first five months (Ordinary and Public Investment Budget), expenditures are lower than the budget target (30,027 mil. Euros) by 736 million euros while State Budget total revenues (Ordinary and Investment Budget) have a shortfall by 1,924 million euros compared to the budget target (20,955 mil. euros).

The five month revenue shortfall can be mainly attributed to the larger than projected recession – during the period when the Budget was being prepared – in the last quarter of 2010, lower receipts from vehicle’s circulation fees by 393 million Euros in January 2011 (because the due date for payment was not extended into January 2011, as in 2010), reduced receipts from withholding personal income tax in 2011 due to the more favourable tax treatment of personal income as a result of the new tax law and the increased tax refunds for the settlement of past years’ obligations. On the other hand, revenues from the Public Investment Budget increased by 117.5% or 363 million Euros vis-à-vis the five months of 2010.

On the other hand, May revenues are increased by 4.7% against May 2010 followed by an increase concerning net revenues by 1.3% despite increased revenue refunds by 151 million euros against May 2010. On a five month basis (January – May), net revenues amounted to 18,358 million Euros, restricting their shortfall to 7.1% comparing to the respective period of 2010 and to 9.1% against the four months (January – April).

It should be noted that the report on the execution of the State Budget provides revenue data for the five months of 2011 on a cash basis. The total level of revenues for 2011 on a national account basis, however, is calculated based on the course of revenues in the first two months of 2012 also, while part of the revenues for the first months of 2011 contribute to the calculation of 2010 revenues on a national accounts basis.

Ordinary budget expenditures increased by 6.4% compared to the same period of 2010. This increase mainly is due to the transfer of 375 million Euros to hospitals for the settlement of past debts and increased interest payments expenditures by 447 million euros. Primary expenditures increased by 4.3% or 872 million Euros during the same period, mainly due to the increased grants to Social Security Funds (Agricultural Insurance Organization -OGA, to Wage Earners Fund -IKA), to the Employment Agency (OAED) and to Hospitals for the settlement of their obligations from procurement.


Moreover, Public Investment Budget (P.I.B.) expenditures declined by 47.3% or 1,528 million euros.

It should be noted that the above data correspond to the execution only of the State Budget and thus do not reflect all fiscal data that are taken into account when measuring the General Government deficit according to the ESA95 (Eurostat’s) classification, which is the benchmark for the assessment of the Economic Policy Programme of Greece.

(capital.gr)

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Un pò di dati ...

 

[tommy271]

The IMF Strikes Again



The intervention of IMF representatives had been the most surprising part of the Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg.

They reinstated that the voting for the Medium-Term Fiscal Program by the Greek House won’t be sufficient for the disbursement of the fifth instalment of the loan to the country.

They require the clear commitment of the EU that there would be a second loan package, covering at least Greece’s obligations to repayments of interest and amortization in 2012.

This position had been expressed again three weeks ago, but the deteriorating political crisis in Athens and the dramatic results in international markets led U.S. government to interfere forcing the IMF to “relieve” the pressure with statements that EU should commit that it would provide the necessary support to Greece. Since then, this requirement has been “forgotten”.

Now the IMF revives it, and urges EU for specific decisions next Thursday-Friday at the European Summit, launching the new package. Europeans responded that the fifth tranche and the new package are not the same issue, but the IFM clarified that won’t pay its share of the instalment, unless EU reaches a clear decision.

Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker had to announce an extraordinary meeting, which is scheduled on July 3 –after the voting for the mid-term program, in order to launch procedures for a second rescue loan. However, it is not clear which would be the “incentive” to the bank to hold Greek bonds.

German banks ask for government collaterals in order to participate, while French banks maintain a wait-and-see stance. British bankers also require the existence of a guarantor.

Member-states agreed on increasing guarantees to the EFSF in order to enhance the actual ability of the rescue fund at €440b instead of €250b, which could cut the Gordian knot.

International analysts comment that the fate of the international economic stability is determined in a small region of the world, in Athens, at the Syntagma (Constitution) Square, in and around the Greek House.

According to the biannual IMF report, the possibility of a Greek default is threatening to spread to the entire euro and drag the international economic stability.

(capital.gr)

***
Un ostacolo dietro l'altro ...

 

[tommy271]

Troika-New Ministers In Get-Acquainted Meetings



The troika representatives arrive in Athens on Tuesday to urge Greek ministers to proceed with clear commitments regarding the implementation of the new measures.

In its two-day visit in Athens, the troika unit plans to officially endorse the changes in the measures, but also ask for …oaths of loyalty from the newly appointed ministers.

Last September memories are still fresh, when the cabinet reshuffle caused unrest in the relationship between troika-minister. Now the international lenders act proactively.

The Treasury will be the main meeting point, where the new mid-term package will be finalized, after the amendments made by both former FinMin Giorgos Papakonstantinou and new FinMin Evangelos Venizelos.

The international officials go over three main fronts:

* The measures for the deficit reducing by 1% of the GDP should be recalculated, in order to raise additional revenue of €28.3b. Sources note that the Greek government is not willing to equate the taxation of heating oil and fuel.

* They consider the conditions and collateral for the privatizations of €50b. The new minister had made it clear in the past that each privatization must be approved by the House. However, this tactic is against the function of the Fund, which would obtain the ownership of the public companies.

According to troika, the Fund would be able –without any intervention right by the Greek state- to proceed even with liquidations if privatizations are not possible in case of very time deadlines.

* Troika officials would get an initial picture of the implementation of the Memorandum in the first half of the year. Several fronts are still open and the government is negotiating getting extra time in many of them, mainly in structural reforms .

(capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

ASE Asks For Vote Of Confidence



Athens Stocks reacts positive on Tuesday following yesterday’s losses, anticipating the government’s vote of confidence. The General Index gains more than 1.5%, attempting to overcome 1.250 units, albeit without success so far.

Market analysts estimate that the market moves aligned with developments about the Greek debt crisis and particularly the voting for the medium-term fiscal program by the Greek House. Additionally, the market is focusing on both the auction of Greek treasury bills today and the vote of confidence later this evening.

“We are on the razor’s edge,” notes Makis Sotiropoulos, head of accounts at Guardian Trust. The market moves focusing on the adoption of the medium-term program, he adds.
In a environment of social unrest and lack of substantial fundamentals, even if the developments are positive (passing of the mid-term program, release of the next aid instalment), “we can only expect a relief rally”, Makis Sotiropoulos says, adding that much will depend on the pace of reforms.

Pegasus Securities anticipates a quite nervous session, increasing the General Index΄s negative volatility. Technically, it expects the market to trade in the 1,215 - 1,240 units today, which consist the Index΄s intraday 1st support and pivot point levels respectively.

Across the board, the General Index is at 1,247.58 units, up 1.48%, moving into positive territory since the opening of the trading session. The turnover stands at just €21.7m, while a total amount of 60 shares rise, 38 decline and 36 remain unchanged.

Banks gain 1.87% at 937.04 units. Alpha Bank and Eurobank jump by 3.16% and 2.99 respectgively, while Piraeus Bank and National Bank rise by 2.00% and 1.75% respectively.

(capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Government spokesman defends midterm fiscal plan

Approval of the five-year medium-term fiscal plan, a condition for ensuring a fifth loan payment under the EU-led bailout for debt-chocked Greece, is “in the national interest” government spokesman Ilias Mosialos said late on Monday.
In an interview with Skai Television’s “New Files” program on Monday, the newly-appointed spokesman and minister of state warned that failure to pass the austerity measures demanded by Greece's international lenders, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, would result in a suspension of payments -- meaning that the government will not be in a position to pay salaries and pensions.
“We had the courage to pass the memorandum, we now have the courage to pass the midterm economic program which runs against vested interests,” said Mosialos, a former health policy professor at the London School of Economics.
Mosialos vowed that the socialist administration would speed up reforms and privatizations to put its finances right. “We are the reformist party par excellence,” he said of the ruling PASOK.
George Papandreou, the socialist prime minister, reshuffled his cabinet last week after failing to reach a cross-party agreement on a unity coalition with conservative opposition leader Antonis Samaras.






ekathimerini.com , Tuesday June 21, 2011 (13:41)

 

[tommy271]

Desperately seeking a vote of confidence

By Nick Malkoutzis


Picture the scene: It’s two weeks after you’ve led your party to a disappointing election defeat against a faltering government. A high-profile member of your party is mounting a leadership challenge that will require the party faithful to make a choice. What do you do? Recognize where you and your party have gone wrong and explain how you plan to put it right? No. Instead, you call for a vote of confidence from your MPs, which threatens to tear your party apart.
Fast-forward almost four years and you are now prime minister. Your country is standing on the precipice of economic collapse and your foreign partners -- who are for the time being preventing this collapse -- are losing faith in you. What do you do? Set out clearly what you want to achieve and how you will achieve it? Convince your own party that there is a clear path toward salvation? No. Instead, you make a bungled attempt to form a government of national unity with an opposition that has no appetite for it, reshuffle your Cabinet to appease wavering deputies and then you call for a vote of confidence.
George Papandreou’s move paid off in September 2007, more through luck than design. Objections from PASOK deputies meant that only a half-hearted vote by acclamation was held, which had no bearing on anything. “I cannot fathom what kind of mind, ignorant of the operation of political parties and Parliament, came up with this idea,» said one of the party’s elder statesmen, Apostolos Kaklamanis, at the time. Papandreou had wanted to make a bold move to re-establish his authority but ended up blundering his way through to a leadership election in which he beat off Evangelos Venizelos’s flawed challenge.
Last week’s doomed telephone tennis with New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras and the subsequent underwhelming reshuffle had the similar air of misguidedness about them. There was no basis for any kind of cooperation between PASOK and ND because deep down both parties are in denial about Greece’s position. The conservatives believe there is still scope for scoring political points, as displayed by Samaras’s obdurateness and parochialism in insisting that the citizenship law should have been part of any coalition pact. Meanwhile, the Socialists think they can still avert some of the most austere measures to keep their grassroots support loyal to the party.
But time for all that has run out. The future of the country cannot depend on the outcome of a couple of phone calls between Papandreou and Samaras, as LAOS leader Giorgos Karatzaferis pointed out in Parliament on Sunday. And what a sad indictment of Greek politics it is when the populist Karatzaferis appears to talk the most sense about the plight of the country and its economy over the last 14 months.
Last April, Papandreou stood by the harbor on the island of Kastelorizo to inform the Greek public that his government had asked for a bailout. He spoke of Greece embarking on a new Odyssey. Just over a year later, the good ship Hellas is not faring much better than Odysseus and his crew, veering from one near-disaster to the next.
Greece’s problems can be blamed on the choppy waters of the global economy, on the ill winds of rating agencies and market analysts, on those within the European Union who are dithering about mounting a realistic rescue operation and on the shoddiness of our very own vessel to begin with. But the first who should be held responsible are those that steer the ship.
Throughout this crisis, Greece has not had a firm hand on the tiller and last week’s machinations left the country veering toward the nearest rocky outcrop. The EU is keeping up its calls for consensus but were Papandreou, his ministers and his MPs to unite behind a coherent strategy, the other parties would either become irrelevant or they might be embarrassed into making concessions. Greece now has no option other than to vote through and stick to its medium-term fiscal plan. It’s by no means an ideal solution but the little credibility the country’s decision makers had left was wiped out last week. Greece needs to regain some of this trust before it can argue for a better deal from its partners.
It’s clear that the current method of dealing with the crisis has no long-term future. It is simply piling more unmanageable debt on Greece. It’s in the interests of the EU to come up with a more feasible solution; one that might involve a large part of Greek debt being paid over a much longer period than currently envisioned, for instance. That doesn’t negate the need for Greece to convince its partners it’s worth saving. Politically, it’s much easier for European leaders to sell such an idea to their electorates if the country benefiting in the first instance actually looks like it understands the implications of the situation and is making the appropriate effort.
In Greece’s case, though, the country’s politicians have been sending out the message that they are not interested in saving themselves, let alone being saved by others. Their insularism and selfishness means they are ceasing to represent the people that elected them, people that are very much interested in saving themselves and the country. If Papandreou and his government want to survive and have a chance of steering Greece to safety, he needs to keep up Greece’s end of the bargain, make the cuts that need to be made, pass the reforms that need to be passed, restore credibility and then push for a solution that would ease the burden on the Greek people.
When he spoke to PASOK’s parliamentary group in September 2007, Papandreou said, «We have a duty to engage in tough battles in Parliament to prevent choices being taken that harm the Greek people and the country.” Now, his government has to face up to the fact that by shirking its responsibilities, it is the one harming Greece and its people. Papandreou can no longer afford to get bogged down in the type of mock attempts at leadership that have blighted his record over the past few years. The only place he can lead from now is the front. That’s where he’ll find the vote of confidence he has craved for so long.






ekathimerini.com , Tuesday June 21, 2011 (13:24)

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Un commento.

 

[tommy271]

Intanto la Borsa di Atene rimane positiva a + 1,22% a 1244 punti.
I nostri spread sul decennale rimangono stabili a 1476 pb.

 

[Nobody's]

BCE DRENA PREVISTI 74 MLD EURO IN OPERAZIONE A 7 GG PER STERILIZZAZIONE ACQUISTI BOND, TASSO MEDIO 1,15%

Reuters - 21/06/2011 12:58:06

 

[Nobody's]

BARROSO PROPONE DI ACCELERARE PAGAMENTO FONDI STRUTTURALI UE A GRECIA PER AIUTARE CRESCITA

Reuters - 21/06/2011 13:03:51

 

[Ataru98]

[...]

Venendo ad argomenti piu' seri, non vedo come le societa' di rating potrebbero non considerare default il riscadenziamento ai fini dei CDS.
Il CDS e' un contratto che mi assicura la corresponsione di quanto previsto dal titolo che ho acquistato. Ad esempio se io ho un titolo che scade tra 1 anno voglio essere sicuro di avere tra un anno capitale + interessi. Se il debitore mi paga solo gli interessi e mi allunga la scadenza di 7 anni, sono nel mio pieno diritto di andare a chiedere all'assicuratore di pagarmi lui il capitale e di prendersi in cambio i miei titoli , ci faccia poi lui lo swap "spontaneamente obbligatorio" ,se crede

Avevo capito che il default ai fini dei CDS non lo decretassero le agenzie di rating bensì un'autorità indipendente, che però adesso non ricordo.
Avevo capito male?