EURO GOVT-Greek deal hurts Bunds, but not for long
Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:05am EDT
* German Bunds fall on austerity consent, prospect of funds
* 10-year yield near 2011-lows, 2.80 level eyed
* Economic backdrop, Greek worries to limit Bund downside
By Ana Nicolaci da Costa
LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - German debt fell on Friday after
Greece won a commitment for more international aid in return for further austerity, but uncertainty over Greece's ability to avoid default should keep bonds underpinned.
After a day of wrangling in Athens, new Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos clinched a deal with EU and IMF inspectors on extra tax rises and spending cuts to plug a 3.8 billion euro funding gap due to a revenue shortfall. .
But the Greek parliament still has to vote on June 28 on a new package of austerity and reform measures.
The Bund future FGBLc1 fell 37 ticks to 126.82, pushing 10-year yields up 2.4 basis points to 2.89 percent.
"It's a question of trade now, ask questions later," Richard McGuire, rate strategist at Rabobank said.
"I don't think it changes the bigger picture, the same hurdles need to be overcome as was the case yesterday."
While Prime Minister George Papandreou has expressed confidence over the June 28 vote in public, Slovak Prime Minister Iveta Radicova said he had voiced uncertainty in a private telephone call on Wednesday -- meaning parliamentary approval was not a given. .
If the vote went through, and Greece did get more money from international lenders, it remained unclear how the private sector would be involved in a second bailout without prompting rating agencies to downgrade Greek debt to default.
There was also a growing view that any rescue package would only delay what is widely seen as an inevitable Greek default.
Peripheral bonds were broadly mixed but the cost of insuring Portuguese and Greek debt against default rose.
Five-year credit default swaps (CDS) on Greek government debt increased 32 basis points to 2,055 bps, according to data monitor Markit. This means it costs 2.055 million euros to protect 10 million euros of exposure to Greek bonds.
The cost of insuring Portuguese debt against default rose by 14 basis points to 825 basis points.
BULLISH BONDS
Ten-year German Bund yields, albeit higher on the day, still traded below the psychologically significant level of 3.00 percent. At 2.89 percent, benchmark yields were not far off a 2011-low of 2.845 hit in January.
"Below there the highs at 2.80 percent from June and July 2010 come into focus. A closing on a weekly basis below this area would be another bullish chart-technical signal," said Commerzbank in a research note.
Analysts said the bond sell-off would likely be short-lived as concerns over Greece and a gloomy global economic backdrop continued to underpin appetite for safe-haven assets.
Higher U.S. jobless claims on Thursday suggested the country's labour market was still struggling. . Investors will look at U.S. durable goods later in the session for fresh insight into the world's largest economy.
In a further sign of growing worries over the global economy, industrialised nations agreed to release oil from emergency stockpiles for the third time in history. .
The unexpected decision to release 60 million barrels over the next month showed the deepening concern among Western leaders over the damage of high energy costs to a worsening world economy.
As one trader put it: "I am not looking for a massive collapse in Bunds."