Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

EMU's Largest Banks Continue Talks To Solve Greece Impasse: FT



LONDON (MNI) Some of the euro zone's largest banks are meeting in Paris in a bid to end the deadlock with European authorities over investors' involvement in the restructuring of Greek sovereign debt, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.
Citing people close to the negotations, the FT says that new mechanisms for dealing with Greek sovereign debt are on the table, including a five-year rollover.
According to the report, one option available is a change in both the coupon and the proportion of debt targeted for rollover.
"The basic coupon would be floating depending on the Euribor 3-month rate, currently 1.56%, plus a buffer of as little as 1.7%," the FT says.
The rate of interest would also contain a "kicker", limited to a maximum of 2.5% and would be based on Greece's inflation level.
Last week, the French banking federation suggested a plan to rollover 50% of the E100bln of outstanding Greek debt due to mature by the end of 2014.
The rolled-over debt would have a yield capped at 8%, based on a 5.5% coupon and a "kicker" of up to 2.5% based on Greece's economic growth.
At its midday briefing on Monday, the European Commission said that various rollover plans were being considered.
"We are working on these private sector involvements so there is no decisions taken yet. The eurogroup... is working on a new programme, the programme is being fleshed out, including private sector involvement. Very significant progress has been made over the last few weeks," EC Spokesperson Amadeu Altafaj said.
"We're having very fruitful discussions and they're still ongoing with private sector financial sectors in different member states. The precised modalities and the scale of private sector involvement and additional funding from official sources will be determined in the coming weeks," he added.

 

[Nobody's]

Gli USA hanno il problema di rinnovare i propri titoli in scadenza in agosto, dopo che la Cina ha affermato che non intende acquistarne altri.
La soluzione migliore resta quella di spolpare gli europei ...

Hai certificato quello che sostengo io

son contento che sei tu a ribadirlo.

La verita e questa.

 

[tommy271]

sull'asta portoghese di oggi no news?

Baro ha già postato i dati.
Volevo far notare che ormai, sui trimestrali, il Portogallo paga gli stessi rendimenti che offre la Grecia.
Il Bid/cover ellenico è leggermente superiore.

 

[tommy271]

Greek Banks Under New Pressures



The session of the Athens Stock Exchange on Wednesday is similar to the yesterday’s meeting, as the General Index is forced to new losses, with the banks at the centre of pressures, while the trading volume is weak.

The market focuses on the processes regarding the rollover of Greek debt. Recent developments maintain market nervousness and reduce risk-taking moves.

“Momentum seems to be turning, as lingering European debt crisis and rating agencies’ warnings and downgrades are weighing negatively” said Marfin Analysis in a report, on the back of S&P’s warning that a plan for European banks to roll over some of Greece’s debt into longer term bonds would still be considered a default and Portugal’s debt rating downgrade by four notches by Moody’s.

Pegasus Securities considers yesterday΄s correction as anticipated, sustaining optimism as to a possible continuation of the market΄s positive trend.

“Yesterday΄s adjustment was exaggerated when it comes to specific large-cap equities (Alpha Bank, NBG), seeing no reason for the downtrend to continue, unless supported by specific negative news content or unconstructive background talk concerning developments over Greece΄s 2nd financial aid package” Pegasus added in its morning report.

On the board, the General Index is at 1,280.24 units, down 0.63%, moving in red since the opening. The turnover stands at €21.2m, while a total amount of 42 shares rise, 52 decline and 36 remain unchanged.

Greek banks fall by 2.48%, at 975.86 units. ATEBank drops by 10.63%, while Piraeus Bank, Alpha Bank and Eurobank lose 3.67%, 2.82% and 2.10% respectively.

(capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Hai certificato quello che sostengo io

son contento che sei tu a ribadirlo.

La verita e questa.

Tra l'altro i giapponesi hanno i loro problemi in patria da gestire e la Cina da qualche parte dovrà mettere la disponibilità finanziaria...

 

[tommy271]

Greece to sell 3 mln carbon rights in July






ATHENS, July 6 | Wed Jul 6, 2011 6:42am EDT

ATHENS, July 6 (Reuters) - Greece said on Wednesday it would auction a total 3 million carbon emission rights this month, as part of the debt-laden country's asset sale programme to pay down debt and plug its budget deficit.
Two auctions to be held on July 14 and July 27 will sell some 1.5 million spot EU allowances each, the Athens Stock Exchange said in a statement.
Athens hopes to raise up to 170 million euros ($245.3 million) from the sale of 10 million allowances from a reserve this year.
But this goal may prove out of reach after the prices of carbon emission rights fell by about 20 percent last month, partly because of fears over Greece's debt crisis.
Greece sold 1.1 million carbon allowances for 12.70 euros each in June. The market rate for spot EU allowances at the time the auction ended was 12.96 euros.

 

[tommy271]

Default needed to lure long-term buyers back to Greece

By Marius Zaharia
Long-term investors standing aloof from the Greek debt crisis want holders of its government bonds to take a loss big enough to slash the country's debt to sustainable levels before they consider returning.

Greece is still expected to default at some point and for most investors who have dumped bonds over the past two years and who are crucial to put the ailing economy back on its feet, the longer that is delayed, the longer it will be before they consider looking at Greek assets again.

A likely second bailout -- currently under tortuous negotiation -- is seen only as a means to buy time for eurozone banks to provision for eventual losses and protect the bloc's larger economies from contamination, while the reforms attached to the package will be hard to implement in the face of deepening public resentment.

"We would buy if the economy manages to reform itself and if the banking sector is self-funded, but I don't think that's going to happen on a five-year view," said Russell Silberston, head of global interest rates at Investec Asset Management, who manages $31 billion worth of fixed income assets globally. "Our view is they also need to default before that."

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Reuters on Monday he intended to return to market funding in the middle of 2014.

Most investors don't think that will happen without a major restructuring to make Greece's debt mountain sustainable and remove it from the downward spiral of constant deficit-cutting which will wreck any chance of economic recovery. "For Greece, starting over is the only solution," said Kommer van Trigt, a bond fund manager with Robeco Group, managing about 40 billion euros ($57 billion).

Silberston said the "first default" was near as France's proposal for a voluntary rollover of Greek debt seemed to be gathering momentum. But that would not solve Greece's solvency problem.

With debt expected to reach 1.6 times its 2011 economic output, economists say Greece would need a primary budget surplus of about 5 percent of gross domestic product, compared with last year's 5 percent primary deficit, simply to stabilize its debt at current levels.

On the assumption that Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio would peak at 166 percent, Evolution Securities calculations show a haircut of about 64 percent would be needed to bring the ratio back to the ceiling of 60 percent agreed in the EU'S Maastricht Treaty.

The Greek debt curve fully prices in a 50 percent haircut on average, according to UniCredit. But imposing losses on bondholders before gaining credibility may be in vain.

Investec's Silberston said besides a haircut, he would want to see several quarters of primary budget surpluses achieved in a sustainable way -- and not through privatization revenues -- before buying Greek debt.

"The big problem with a major haircut is that ... you would still need to have a very high premium for people to buy Greek debt after that date because if you look historically at haircuts, they tend not to be in isolation," said Jack Kelly, an investment director on global government bonds at Standard Life Investments, which manages assets worth 157 billion pounds ($250 billion).

Cheap is not enough

After an immediate Greek default was avoided with 12 billion euros of emergency loans and a fresh round of belt-tightening measures agreed in Athens, yields on some of its debt have fallen by more than 200 basis points. But at over 27 percent for two-year paper and 16 percent for the 10-year they are still punishingly high. Only short-term investors were behind the rally, which was also exacerbated by thin volumes.

Kelly said Standard Life, which sold its last holdings of Greek debt in June 2010, would only buy it back if it reached investment grade again or as part of a EU common bond, something Germany has ruled out.

Although rated above junk, Portugal and Ireland, the other bailed out countries in the eurozone, are also considered a no-go by long-term debt investors because of the risk they will be dragged down with the Greek crisis. But those countries have a chance to turn things around faster than Greece. The best placed is Ireland, whose exports are more competitive and its labor markets more flexible.

"The numbers are a bit better for Portugal and Ireland," said van Trigt at Robeco Group. "At this point we are not really differentiating between Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Going forward, a country like Ireland has a better starting position."

The right price

With the timing and magnitude of any Greek debt haircut hard to predict because politics plays a greater role than mathematics, it is hard to assess what price would draw investors back into Greece.

A common comparison is Uruguay's debt restructuring in 2003, when the price for its 2012 bond rose from about 40 to 60 cents in the dollar immediately after the event.

Greece's June 2020 bond trades at 55 cents in the euro.

"At prices of under 50, there will be value in eight- or nine-year (Greek) bonds at some stage," said Ciaran O'Hagan, strategist at Societe Generale. "But only when accounts are rendered sustainable, e.g. through restructuring."

That only holds good if Greece avoids a unilateral and disorderly default like Argentina's in 2002. It organized large debt swaps in 2005 and 2010 yet is still shut out of debt markets.

Market pricing before any haircut could offer opportunities to buy on the view that Greek bondholders were too pessimistic about the extent of such a move. But it would not help Greece, as those investors may bail out soon afterwards and their spending would be small.

"Those would only be incredibly hot money," said Robert Talbut, chief investment officer at Royal London Asset Management, which runs assets worth 40 billion pounds ($64 billion). He added he would not take that risk. [Reuters]






ekathimerini.com , Wednesday Jul 6, 2011 (13:30)

Opinioni.

 

[tommy271]

Grecia/ Ministro Esteri attacca agenzie rating: da loro "follia"

E la "fustigatrice" Germania ha tratto benefici dell'euro



Berlino, 6 lug. (TMNews) - "Follia". Così il ministro degli Esteri della Grecia bolla le sparate delle agenzie di rating, che con i loro declassamenti e moniti continuano a prendere di mira gli anelli deboli dell'area euro. Oltre alla stessa Grecia anche Irlanda e Portogallo, ed è proprio su quest'ultimo che è caduto l'ultimo colpo di una agenzia: ieri Moody's ha declassato a livello speculativo il rating sulle emissioni del paese, ad un valore che in gergo viene chiamato "spazzatura". Il ministro greco ha lanciato il suo sfogo traendo spunto da questo episodio. "Ieri Moody's ha declassato il Portogallo. Ma questo declassamento non è basato sul fatto che il Portogallo non stia facendo facendo il suo lavoro in termini di riforme, ma sull'ipotesi che abbia nuovamente bisogno di aiuti. Vedete la follia - ha affermato Stavros Lambrinidis - di questa profezia autorealizzante?".

Le valutazioni delle agenzie di rating vengono prese in considerazione per le decisioni di investimento da molti attori di mercato, e quindi un peggioramento su un paese tende a creare vendite e pressioni sulle sue relative emissioni. Può innescarsi un circolo di declassamenti di rating e vendite che finisce per rendere impossibile ad uno Stato di trovare finanziamenti sul mercato, come appunto avvenuto sulla Grecia anche se, va ricordato, l'origine della crisi del paese sta nel fatto che negli anni scorsi Atene aveva pesantemente dissimulato il reale stato dei suoi conti pubblici.

Intanto il ministro greco ha anche lanciato un appello a superare "la retorica dei rimproveri" sui piani di sostegno europei ai paesi in difficoltà, in particolare rivolgendosi alla politica e all'opinione pubblica della Germania, dove questi salvataggio hanno creato aspro dibattito. "I tedeschi hanno l'impressione di salvare i peccatori, mentre i greci hanno quella di essere salvato dai fustigatori", ha rilevato Lambrimidis. Pur esprimendo la sua "gratitudine per il sostegno" tedesco al piano di aiuti europeo (la Germania ne è il primo contributore), il ministro ha voluto puntare il dito su alcune incongruenze che si celano dietro il cliché di paesi formiche e cicale. "L'aeroporto di Atene - ha ricordato - è stato costruito in larga misura da imprese tedesche, e finanziato con fondi europei": la Germania ha ampiamente tratto beneficio dalla creazione della moneta unica, l'euro, e dal mercato integrato. (fonte Afp)

 

[tommy271]

Portogallo, spread 10 anni su Germania vola a record storico

mercoledì 6 luglio 2011 12:24




LONDRA, 6 luglio (Reuters) - Il differenziale di rendimento tra il decennale portoghese e quello tedesco PT10DE10=TWEB è schizzato al rialzo di 131 punti base, raggiungendo i 1046 punti base, il livello più alto mai raggiunto dall'introduzione dell'euro, sulla scia del downgrade del debito lusitano a 'spazzatura' da parte di Moody's.
In salita anche il costo per proteggersi dal default della zona euro: l'indice Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe dei prezzi dei CDS è salito di 13,5 punti base nel corso della seduta, toccando il livello record di 243 punti base, raggiunto il mese scorso.


***
I nostri ellenici viaggiano attualmente a 1395 pb.

 

[tommy271]

BCE: DOMANI AUMENTA TASSI ALL'1, 5%; GUARDIA ALTA SU GRECIA




13:41 06 LUG 2011

(AGI) Francoforte - Domani la Bce rialzera' i tassi di un quarto di punto, portandoli all'1,50% e manterra' alta la guardia sulla Grecia, continuando a sostenere che occorre a tutti i costi evitare un default, anche soft, contenendo il coinvolgimento dei privati sugli aiuti.
C'è attesa anche di cio' che l'Eurotower dira' sul downgrade di Moody's sul Portogallo.
I mercati danno praticamente per scontato il secondo rialzo quest'anno dei tassi d'interesse europei, dopo che il presidente Jean Claude Trichet ha piu' volte detto che occorre una "forte vigilanza" sulla stabilita' dei prezzi, formula che prelude a un aumento del costo del denaro.