UPDATE 2-Greece sets minimum take-up rate for debt swap plan
Fri Aug 26, 2011 3:30am EDT
* Greece sets 90 pct take-up rate as condition for debt swap
* Greece sent formal letter to finance ministers
(Adds Greek bankers)
ATHENS, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Greece said on Friday it would not go ahead with a debt swap crucial to its second bailout if private sector holders of less than 90 percent of the bonds participate, failing to satisfy its international partners.
The statement comes after signs that the debt swap plan is facing delays, with between 60 and 70 percent of bondholders participating so far.
Greece and banking lobby group IIF, which jointly coordinate the debt swap talks, had so far presented the 90 percent participation rate as a simple target and not as a condition.
The condition applies to the holders of Greek bonds maturing by 2014 or 2020, the government said in a letter sent to finance ministers around the world, according to a statement it posted on the web site of the Athens Stock Exchange.
"If these thresholds (or either of them) are not met, Greece shall not proceed with any portion of the transaction described in this letter if it determines, in consultation with the official sector, that the total contribution of private sector creditors towards the financing needs of Greece and Greece's debt sustainability resulting from this transaction is insufficient to permit the official sector to support the new multi-year adjustment programme for Greece announced on July, 2011," the letter said.
According to two senior Greek bankers who spoke on condition of anonymity, the letter is meant as invitation to banks to declare by Sept. 9 their non-binding interest to take part in the bond swap.
"After Sept. 9, there will be a formal invitation to declare binding interest to participate, by early October," one banker said.
According to a second Greek banker, the government has also slightly changed the accounting treatment of the bond value losses to be incurred by bondholders, to make them more favourable for banks.
The IIF downplayed the delay with the scheme on Thursday and said it expected participation would grow as Greece made concrete proposals.
Market players are watching progress on the deal closely, seeing its completion as a key condition for Greece's banking sector to start returning to normal.
Sarà uno stillicidio fina agli inizi di ottobre, allora ??
vieni giù dax anche tu sei sul titanic
vedrete che bella lezione il mercato darà alla merkel![]()
Banks: Beware Of PSI
After they received a letter for the participation in the rollover of Greek debt, both Greek and foreign banks enter the final phase of the process, which would determine whether the decision of the latest EU Summit for the second Greek bailout would require revision or not.
There is no exact information whether banks intend to cover the ceiling of €135 billion, which has been set as an objective for the package.
Regarding Greek banks, the situation is pretty much known to the committee and there would be no problem. However, the same does not apply to foreign banks, which have a deadline for September 9. Then, all banks should have defined the terms of their participation, determining the fate of the package.
If not an amount of €135 billion is raised on September 9, then the three pillars of the package (loans, debt rollover, privatizations) should be redesigned.
This also means that the controversial Greek –Finnish pre-agreement on collateral should be resolved, as it threatens the package, raising issues of additional collateral agreements.
This is already reflected in the sharp widening of Greek bond spreads, which reached levels of an actual default.
Greek bankers follow the developments closely, as Greek banks were the first to clarify the terms and the amount of their participation in the debt rollover scheme. They note that the Greek-Finnish agreement has triggered developments in the background that could affect dramatically the process of rollover.
However, some of them appear optimistic that it is a matter of time before the problem is solved politically.
(capital.gr)
la verita' che nessuno vuole dire e' che se le banche si mettessero a comprare anche un solo miliardo di 2012 sul secondario, questo va in un attimo a 95
ma sappiamo benissimo che il circolante rimasto e' ridicolo
le banche hanno la mondezza greca in carico a 100, hold to maturity e se la vendono a 80 devono contabilizzare la perdita
se il prezzo va a 20, loro, se non c'e' default continuano a contabilizzarle a 100
sappiamo che le banche degli stress test ne hanno 100MLD, le BC 65, i fondi pubblici greci 30, le altre banche altri 30, il retail ormai, se non ha venduto fino adesso, non vende piu', quindi la verita' e' che di bond greci sul mercato ce ne sono veramente pochissimi
e magari qualcuno, shortandone piccole quantita', li fa scendere (cosi' i CDS vanno sempre piu' su...e indovinate che succede? che con lo scendere dei prezzi dei bond, mossi con pochi spiccioli, salgono miliardi di CDS)
ora le banche, aderendo allo SWAP., hanno CONTABILIZZATO la perdita di circa il 20% calcolandoli al nuovo prezzo di 79
le perdite le hanno gia' contabilizzate e digerite, quindi ora si muovono DIVERSAMENTE da quello che facciamo e pensiamo noi
il grosso del mercato GGB lo muovono le banche
se le banche sono obbligate a swappare sia un 2012 che un 2020 con un 2041, e ora li stanno contabilizzando tutti a 79, e' probabile che abbiano venduto i 2012 intorno 80-85 realizzando un gain , e che magari abbiano comprato i 2019 a 50, o anche che abbiano venduto i 2013 a 60-70 per comprare un 2020 a 45, tanto poi sempre un 2041 ricevono, quindi meglio mettersi subito in tasca i 15-25 punti
e tutto cio' coincide alla perfezione con quello che stiamo vedendo, ossia un allineamento di tutti i prezzi dei 2014-2020, con i brevi (2012-2013 che crollano) e gli altri che sono ancora a prezzi superiori a quelli di un mese fa
mentre molti di noi stanno facendo l'opposto, ossia, anche spendendo qualcosa in piu', stanno accorciando, perche' a noi il rimborso arrivera' nel 2012, alle banche arrivera' nel 2041
quindi per capire i movimenti attuali, dovete guardarli con gli occhi con i quali li guardano le banche, che al momento sono sottoposte a condizioni TOTALMENTE DIFFERENTI dalle nostre