tommy271
Forumer storico
Movimenti verso l'alto sono sempre possibili. E' la logica del mercato.
Teniamo conto che arriviamo da CDS che segnavano quasi 1000 punti sino ad un mese fa.
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Movimenti verso l'alto sono sempre possibili. E' la logica del mercato.
Teniamo conto che arriviamo da CDS che segnavano quasi 1000 punti sino ad un mese fa.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Borsa Atene: Ase chiude a +0,5%, trend rialzista
MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'indice Ase della Borsa di Atene termina le contrattazioni in rialzo dello 0,5% a quota 1549,94 punti, sulla scia di un rimbalzo tecnico.
"Il trend rialzista delle recenti settimane continuera', dal momento che l'ambiente macroeconomico locale e' meno oscuro e che gli spread sui bond sovrani sono positivi", ha dichiarato un analista locale senior.
"Il contesto economico e' migliorato e questo miglioramento e' evidente nell'aumento dei volumi", aggiunge l'esperto.
Ppc guadagna il 3,4%, Opap il 3,3%, Hellenic Telecoms il 3,2% e National lo 0,8%.
In rosso invece Eurobank, che cede l'1,8%, Titan l'1,2% e Alpha l'1,1%.
MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'indice Ase della Borsa di Atene termina le contrattazioni in rialzo dello 0,5% a quota 1549,94 punti, sulla scia di un rimbalzo tecnico.
"Il trend rialzista delle recenti settimane continuera', dal momento che l'ambiente macroeconomico locale e' meno oscuro e che gli spread sui bond sovrani sono positivi", ha dichiarato un analista locale senior.
"Il contesto economico e' migliorato e questo miglioramento e' evidente nell'aumento dei volumi", aggiunge l'esperto.
Ppc guadagna il 3,4%, Opap il 3,3%, Hellenic Telecoms il 3,2% e National lo 0,8%.
In rosso invece Eurobank, che cede l'1,8%, Titan l'1,2% e Alpha l'1,1%.
g.ln
Triplo Panico: comprare
2014 6,5%
Ciao Hedger, ho già il 2014 5,5%. Il 6%, al momento in cui l'ho acquistai, era quello che rendeva di più
. Poi non voglio avere troppi titoli in Grecia, faccio fatica a seguirli; il tempo che vi dedico non è infinito.
Ciao, ciao, Giuseppe
Ciao Hedger, ho già il 2014 5,5%. Il 6%, al momento in cui l'ho acquistai, era quello che rendeva di più
. Poi non voglio avere troppi titoli in Grecia, faccio fatica a seguirli; il tempo che vi dedico non è infinito.Ciao, ciao, Giuseppe
tommy271
Forumer storico
Wind Hellas Said to Get Revised Bids, Including Sawiris $252 Million Offer
By Kate Haywood - Oct 15, 2010 6:25 PM GMT+0200 Fri Oct 15 16:25:46 GMT 2010
Sawiris is offering 180 million euros ($252 million) of cash and plans to refinance Wind Hellas’s revolving-credit facility by raising 290 million euros of bonds, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because talks are private. Holders of Athens-based Wind Hellas’s 1.2 billion euros of senior secured floating-rate notes will be offered 110 million euros of bonds and 40 percent of the company, the person said.
Greece’s third-largest mobile-phone company requested revised proposals earlier this week from bidders, including the biggest Nordic phone operator Telenor ASA and Los Angeles-based investment firm Saban Capital Group Inc., after talks between creditors to select a buyer broke down, the people said. A group of senior bondholders also has sought to take over Wind Hellas.
Wind Hellas said in a statement yesterday it expects to make a choice “in the near term,” without being specific.
Under Sawiris’s proposal, senior secured bondholders will get the chance to invest in Wind Hellas, while holders of its subordinated bonds will be wiped out, according to the person with knowledge of that bid.
Louise Tingstrom, an outside spokeswoman for Wind Hellas in London, declined to comment, while Scott Engebrigtsen, a spokesman for Telenor in Fornebu, Norway, couldn’t be reached for comment outside of office hours.
(Bloomberg)
***
Le vicende di Wind Hellas ...
By Kate Haywood - Oct 15, 2010 6:25 PM GMT+0200 Fri Oct 15 16:25:46 GMT 2010
Sawiris is offering 180 million euros ($252 million) of cash and plans to refinance Wind Hellas’s revolving-credit facility by raising 290 million euros of bonds, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because talks are private. Holders of Athens-based Wind Hellas’s 1.2 billion euros of senior secured floating-rate notes will be offered 110 million euros of bonds and 40 percent of the company, the person said.
Greece’s third-largest mobile-phone company requested revised proposals earlier this week from bidders, including the biggest Nordic phone operator Telenor ASA and Los Angeles-based investment firm Saban Capital Group Inc., after talks between creditors to select a buyer broke down, the people said. A group of senior bondholders also has sought to take over Wind Hellas.
Wind Hellas said in a statement yesterday it expects to make a choice “in the near term,” without being specific.
Under Sawiris’s proposal, senior secured bondholders will get the chance to invest in Wind Hellas, while holders of its subordinated bonds will be wiped out, according to the person with knowledge of that bid.
Louise Tingstrom, an outside spokeswoman for Wind Hellas in London, declined to comment, while Scott Engebrigtsen, a spokesman for Telenor in Fornebu, Norway, couldn’t be reached for comment outside of office hours.
(Bloomberg)
***
Le vicende di Wind Hellas ...
tommy271
Forumer storico
T-bills auction Tuesday
ANA-MPA - Greece will auction a three-month Treasury bills issue next Tuesday, 19 October, seeking to raise 900 million euros from the market. The issue will be auctioned to the market’s primary dealers and settlement date was set Friday, 22 October, the Finance ministry said on Friday.
The Finance ministry said the T-bill issue will be offered to private investors as well.
Greece successfully auctioned a six-month Treasury bill issue on Tuesday raising around 1.5 billion euros at a reduced interest rate.
***
Sempre sui Bot/Greek.
ANA-MPA - Greece will auction a three-month Treasury bills issue next Tuesday, 19 October, seeking to raise 900 million euros from the market. The issue will be auctioned to the market’s primary dealers and settlement date was set Friday, 22 October, the Finance ministry said on Friday.
The Finance ministry said the T-bill issue will be offered to private investors as well.
Greece successfully auctioned a six-month Treasury bill issue on Tuesday raising around 1.5 billion euros at a reduced interest rate.
***
Sempre sui Bot/Greek.
tommy271
Forumer storico
China, Greece to launch join bid for logistics site contract
China and Greece are to form a consortium to bid for a contract to build a logistics center at a site west of Athens, sources in the Greek port of Piraeus said Friday.
The Thriassion site, which currently belongs to the Greek rail organisation OSE, is to be sold between now and the end of the year, according to the transport ministry.
The Chinese maritime freight group Cosco, which since 2008 has controlled two terminals in the port of Piraeus, has already expressed interest in transforming the site into a transportation logistics center.
Piraeus port director George Anomeritis said an agreement had been reached with Cosco to form a consortium to bid for the contract, adding that other parties could also join the operation, press reports said here.
A number of Chinese proposals, including the opening of a free trade zone, were discussed at a meeting Thursday of representatives from the Greek ministries of transport and finance and the port of Piraeus.
China has said it wants to make Piraeus its main transit centre for Chinese goods destined for the European market.
China during a visit here earlier this month of Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to back Greece, which nearly defaulted this year when investors snubbed its debt, by buying its bonds in future debt issues.
Crippled by debt of nearly 300 billion euros (421 billion dollars), the country in May became the first eurozone member to need a financial bailout with a 110-billion-euro EU and IMF rescue package.
Wen also signed a flurry of agreements on investment and tourism with his Greek counterpart George Papandreou and announced the creation of a five-billion-dollar (3.6-billion-euro) fund to help finance the purchase of Chinese ships by Greek shipping companies.
(France Presse)
China and Greece are to form a consortium to bid for a contract to build a logistics center at a site west of Athens, sources in the Greek port of Piraeus said Friday.
The Thriassion site, which currently belongs to the Greek rail organisation OSE, is to be sold between now and the end of the year, according to the transport ministry.
The Chinese maritime freight group Cosco, which since 2008 has controlled two terminals in the port of Piraeus, has already expressed interest in transforming the site into a transportation logistics center.
Piraeus port director George Anomeritis said an agreement had been reached with Cosco to form a consortium to bid for the contract, adding that other parties could also join the operation, press reports said here.
A number of Chinese proposals, including the opening of a free trade zone, were discussed at a meeting Thursday of representatives from the Greek ministries of transport and finance and the port of Piraeus.
China has said it wants to make Piraeus its main transit centre for Chinese goods destined for the European market.
China during a visit here earlier this month of Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to back Greece, which nearly defaulted this year when investors snubbed its debt, by buying its bonds in future debt issues.
Crippled by debt of nearly 300 billion euros (421 billion dollars), the country in May became the first eurozone member to need a financial bailout with a 110-billion-euro EU and IMF rescue package.
Wen also signed a flurry of agreements on investment and tourism with his Greek counterpart George Papandreou and announced the creation of a five-billion-dollar (3.6-billion-euro) fund to help finance the purchase of Chinese ships by Greek shipping companies.
(France Presse)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Venerdì è stata una giornata dominata dalle incertezze, nel frattempo sono proseguite le prese di beneficio sui nostri ellenici che giungono da una serie interminabile di sedute positive: la "cartaccia" greca rimane comunque al top-ten dei recuperi.
La correzione di rotta ha avuto inizio nella tarda mattinata di giovedì per proseguire sin nel primo pomeriggio di venerdì quando si è arrestata. In questo caso ha influito molto il netto recupero dei periferici, cui ha contribuito la fase calante del Bund. Sui nostri ellenici ampie oscillazioni comprese tra i 660 e i 700 pb.
Martedì è attesa l'asta dei Bot/Greek a tre mesi, il Ministro delle Finanze Papaconstantinou tenterà di bissare il successo avuto con la precedente a sei mesi: in teoria gli sforzi sul restringimento degli spread continueranno o, perlomeno, non dovrebbero volare verso l'alto.
Per il 12 mesi, con rendimenti attesi sotto il 5%, bisognerà attendere i primi mesi del 2011.
Intanto l'aria fresca che si respira ha raggiunto in profondità i polmoni del Club Med, portando a casa dei buoni risultati.
Spicca su tutti il Portogallo che si appresta a varare la manovra antideficit, in questo caso il voto dato dai mercati è stato significativo.
Anche gli irlandesi ne approfittano, il "malato molto grave" termina la settimana con un recupero di una quarantina di punti nell'arco di 4/5 sedute.
Bene Spagna e Italia che proseguono nella lenta correzione: la debolezza del Bund gioca, in questo caso, un ruolo determinante.
Grecia 664 pb. (676)
Irlanda 384 pb. (401)
Portogallo 345 pb. (385)
Spagna 164 pb. (173)
Italia 135 pb. (139)
La correzione di rotta ha avuto inizio nella tarda mattinata di giovedì per proseguire sin nel primo pomeriggio di venerdì quando si è arrestata. In questo caso ha influito molto il netto recupero dei periferici, cui ha contribuito la fase calante del Bund. Sui nostri ellenici ampie oscillazioni comprese tra i 660 e i 700 pb.
Martedì è attesa l'asta dei Bot/Greek a tre mesi, il Ministro delle Finanze Papaconstantinou tenterà di bissare il successo avuto con la precedente a sei mesi: in teoria gli sforzi sul restringimento degli spread continueranno o, perlomeno, non dovrebbero volare verso l'alto.
Per il 12 mesi, con rendimenti attesi sotto il 5%, bisognerà attendere i primi mesi del 2011.
Intanto l'aria fresca che si respira ha raggiunto in profondità i polmoni del Club Med, portando a casa dei buoni risultati.
Spicca su tutti il Portogallo che si appresta a varare la manovra antideficit, in questo caso il voto dato dai mercati è stato significativo.
Anche gli irlandesi ne approfittano, il "malato molto grave" termina la settimana con un recupero di una quarantina di punti nell'arco di 4/5 sedute.
Bene Spagna e Italia che proseguono nella lenta correzione: la debolezza del Bund gioca, in questo caso, un ruolo determinante.
Grecia 664 pb. (676)
Irlanda 384 pb. (401)
Portogallo 345 pb. (385)
Spagna 164 pb. (173)
Italia 135 pb. (139)
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
GRECIA: FMI SODDISFATTO DEGLI SFORZI COMPITI
Il Fondo Monetario Internazionale è soddisfatto dalle misure fiscali prese finora dalla Grecia: di questo passo, il Paese potrà tornare sui mercati finanziari in meno di un anno, secondo quanto riportato dai media ellenici. In un´intervista rilasciata ad una televisione greca Jose Vinals, Direttore del reparto mercati monetari e capitali del Fondo, ha affermato che la Grecia sta mantenendo quanto promesso.
Nei giorni scorsi, il Governo ha annunciato per il prossimo anno un taglio del deficit maggiore rispetto a quanto concordato nell´accordo da 110 miliardi di euro siglato in maggio con Fondo Monetario e UE, preannunciando un altro anno di austerità per uscire dalla crisi del debito.
La Grecia, che porta sulle spalle uno dei maggiori debiti dell´Eurozona, deve convincere gli investitori riguardo ai progressi nella riduzione del deficit e nell´adozione delle riforme, avendo come obbiettivo quello di tornare a finanziarsi sui mercati dei capitali entro il 2011.
Jose Vinals ha affermato che si ritiene che la Grecia abbia preso tutte le misure necessarie e ci si aspetta che possa tornare sui mercati nel giro dei prossimi 12 - 18 mesi, forse anche prima: l´importante è che si continui ad assolvere agli impegni presi.
Marcello Berlich
(portalino.it)
Il Fondo Monetario Internazionale è soddisfatto dalle misure fiscali prese finora dalla Grecia: di questo passo, il Paese potrà tornare sui mercati finanziari in meno di un anno, secondo quanto riportato dai media ellenici. In un´intervista rilasciata ad una televisione greca Jose Vinals, Direttore del reparto mercati monetari e capitali del Fondo, ha affermato che la Grecia sta mantenendo quanto promesso.
Nei giorni scorsi, il Governo ha annunciato per il prossimo anno un taglio del deficit maggiore rispetto a quanto concordato nell´accordo da 110 miliardi di euro siglato in maggio con Fondo Monetario e UE, preannunciando un altro anno di austerità per uscire dalla crisi del debito.
La Grecia, che porta sulle spalle uno dei maggiori debiti dell´Eurozona, deve convincere gli investitori riguardo ai progressi nella riduzione del deficit e nell´adozione delle riforme, avendo come obbiettivo quello di tornare a finanziarsi sui mercati dei capitali entro il 2011.
Jose Vinals ha affermato che si ritiene che la Grecia abbia preso tutte le misure necessarie e ci si aspetta che possa tornare sui mercati nel giro dei prossimi 12 - 18 mesi, forse anche prima: l´importante è che si continui ad assolvere agli impegni presi.
Marcello Berlich
(portalino.it)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Search in Greece for legendary treasure
October 16, 2010 - 8:19AM
AFP
A Greek-Australian treasure hunter has begun a search in the mountains of central Greece for the treasure of a notorious 19th century Ottoman pasha believed to be enough to plug the country's vast debts, state TV says.
Vangelis Dimas is financing the excavation to locate the hoard of Ali Pasha near the village of Vassiliki, 352km northwest of Athens.
"The sensors show me that there is great treasure hidden below," Dimas told state television NET on Friday as a crew manned a heavy drill on a small hill a few metres from the local road.
According to Dimas, the treasure could be worth millions of euros, NET said.
Vassiliki mayor Vaios Ziakas told AFP the state-approved operation is proceeding slowly and would likely extend into next week.
"So far we have drilled to a depth of 23 metres but the rock is very tough," he said.
"If at 30 metres we have a breakthrough, it will mean that there is an underground chamber below."
A drill has been brought from Athens for the purpose and cameras will be inserted to help locate the chamber believed to hold the treasure.
Ali Pasha was an Albanian-born potentate who ruled the area for the Ottoman Empire in the early 19th century, shortly before the Greek revolution that ended the country's four-century Turkish occupation.
He was killed in 1822 in an unsuccessful revolt against the Ottoman Sultan but his treasure was never found.
Prior attempts to locate it near his stronghold in the northwestern city of Ioannina have been fruitless.
The village of Vassiliki is named after the pasha's Greek-born wife who hailed from the area, and lies on his old tax caravan route to Ioannina.
The Greek state is entitled to 50 per cent of the finds and the municipality will also be given a percentage, officials say.
Greece is battling a debt crisis and growing recession after coming close to bankruptcy earlier this year. The Greek debt stands at more than 300 billion euros ($A426 billion).
***
Queste notizie mi interessano...
October 16, 2010 - 8:19AM
AFP
A Greek-Australian treasure hunter has begun a search in the mountains of central Greece for the treasure of a notorious 19th century Ottoman pasha believed to be enough to plug the country's vast debts, state TV says.
Vangelis Dimas is financing the excavation to locate the hoard of Ali Pasha near the village of Vassiliki, 352km northwest of Athens.
"The sensors show me that there is great treasure hidden below," Dimas told state television NET on Friday as a crew manned a heavy drill on a small hill a few metres from the local road.
According to Dimas, the treasure could be worth millions of euros, NET said.
Vassiliki mayor Vaios Ziakas told AFP the state-approved operation is proceeding slowly and would likely extend into next week.
"So far we have drilled to a depth of 23 metres but the rock is very tough," he said.
"If at 30 metres we have a breakthrough, it will mean that there is an underground chamber below."
A drill has been brought from Athens for the purpose and cameras will be inserted to help locate the chamber believed to hold the treasure.
Ali Pasha was an Albanian-born potentate who ruled the area for the Ottoman Empire in the early 19th century, shortly before the Greek revolution that ended the country's four-century Turkish occupation.
He was killed in 1822 in an unsuccessful revolt against the Ottoman Sultan but his treasure was never found.
Prior attempts to locate it near his stronghold in the northwestern city of Ioannina have been fruitless.
The village of Vassiliki is named after the pasha's Greek-born wife who hailed from the area, and lies on his old tax caravan route to Ioannina.
The Greek state is entitled to 50 per cent of the finds and the municipality will also be given a percentage, officials say.
Greece is battling a debt crisis and growing recession after coming close to bankruptcy earlier this year. The Greek debt stands at more than 300 billion euros ($A426 billion).
***
Queste notizie mi interessano...
tommy271
Forumer storico
Breaking open the IMF's piggy bank would be Greek tragedy for economy
Saturday October 16 2010
One of the first maxims that a budding economist learns is that there is no free lunch. The saga of what happened to Greece over the past year, in requesting aid from Europe, should stand as a warning to the present Irish government.
EU aid will be no panacea for extricating Ireland from its budget predicaments. Indeed, there is no alternative -- other maybe than leaving the euro -- to public budget austerity.
Greece's radical left-wing government has now blown out the candles celebrating its first year in power. But even before becoming prime minister, George Papandreou was left in no doubt as to the severity of the challenges facing Greece.
The outgoing conservatives had allowed public spending to explode in the run-up to the election, in the vain hope of cultivating votes. The public deficit went into double digits, with the debt-to-national income ratio well over 100pc.
Mr Papandreou was horrified by the hidden hole left by his predecessors. Interest rate payments alone on the national debt would be more than 7pc of government revenue each year, he was told.
Ethical
Mr Papandreou decided that massive austerity was neither feasible nor ethical. Greece then set about to ask for 'solidarity' from the European Union. This could be obtained without cost, or so it seemed. Other European countries borrowed at much lower yields.
So the plan was to simply get them to extend loans to Greece at the far better terms. That would have no upfront cash cost for the other governments, and it would keep foreign investors happy.
Mr Papandreou is a former sociology professor and a fervent internationalist. Burden-sharing with the rest of Europe to him seemed entirely rational in economic terms. It even seemed principled, given that Europe was gaining on trade with Greece. Thus began a campaign to request 'solidarity' from the EU that was to last months, and bring the EU to its most serious crisis yet. That crisis resulted in the establishment of a ginormous €750bn piggy bank that is now available to other eurozone governments, including Ireland, to tap into, should they ask for assistance with their funding.
My contacts in Greece were telling me, time and again, that once the solidarity came through, Greek borrowing rates would fall sharply. But the opposite happened. Yields skyrocketed, and Greece Inc was tainted with opprobrium.
Investors saw the provision of loans to Greece as just a blank cheque that opened the door to more fiscal irresponsibility. The direct involvement of Europe and the IMF in the domestic affairs of the country was seen as making the repayment of debt a political question, and an open question. Investors everywhere always abhor such uncertainty.
A call by Ireland now on the piggy bank provided by the IMF and the other eurozone governments would result in the death of the market for Irish bonds. Today it is very hard and quite costly for investment funds to either sell or buy Greek government bonds.
The Greek government no longer sells bonds, while many investors hoard the bonds they own. Even the ECB has been buying Greek bonds from some of the sellers. The end result is that the market for bonds hardly functions at all.
The easy part for the eurozone and the IMF was to dish out loans to Greece. The hard part, in a few years' time, is to envisage how it will ever get back to selling bonds in the market again. The same fate would befall Ireland as well if it were to seek 'solidarity'.
Worse than all of this would be the hit to reputation. Piggy banks are the preserve of kids. Blowing open the piggy bank is usually the last resort. It would be a signal to all of Ireland's trading partners that the risk of doing business is too high. A calamity for an open economy.
Yet Ireland's public deficit this year is running far above that of Greece, even without factoring in the cost of all the aid given to the banks.
The ratio of Ireland's public debt relative to national income could climb above that of Greece in a few years, under reasonable scenarios, unless there is a sharp change in government policies.
But borrowing from the eurozone/IMF piggy bank, probably at rates of around 5pc, is barely going to make a dent in the cost of rolling over the debt. So the only sure way for the Irish taxpayer to pay less in interest is to sharply rein in public spending and hike taxes over the coming years.
Welfare
Ireland has many advantages over Greece. For one, it is far richer. Wages in Ireland are among the highest in the EU. Income tax is almost zero for salaries below €30k a year. Some welfare benefits appear extraordinarily generous, compared to the rest of Europe. Ireland has virtually no wealth or residency taxes.
Pension entitlements are generous. Indeed, the present Government felt so confident last year on the budget outlook that it cut taxes on alcohol -- the only country in Europe that went out of its way to support the drinks industry and drinkers.
Foreign investors, when they study the figures for taxation and spending in Ireland, are all convinced that the budget can be brought under control if the government sets about it.
Some of the investors -- especially those that hold Irish government bonds -- tell me that they have been surprised at the readiness of the present Government to support domestic property and banking interests.
But they agree that Ireland is rich enough to be able to pay for all this aid. At the same time, they are reassured at the state access to a pot of ready cash.
Such wealth can either be further squandered, or else it can be used to decisively improve the outlook for public finances. Investors are giving the benefit of the doubt to Ireland for now. Ten-year government bonds are back to 6pc, ahead of the budget powwows.
That's their lowest level in a month. But investors will need to know shortly which way budget plans are heading, and if the present and the subsequent government will be up to the game.
Ciaran O'Hagan is a fixed income strategist at French bank, Societe Generale
Irish Independent
***
Il caso "Grecia" visto dagli Irlandesi, con considerazioni sulle proprie vicende.
Saturday October 16 2010
One of the first maxims that a budding economist learns is that there is no free lunch. The saga of what happened to Greece over the past year, in requesting aid from Europe, should stand as a warning to the present Irish government.
EU aid will be no panacea for extricating Ireland from its budget predicaments. Indeed, there is no alternative -- other maybe than leaving the euro -- to public budget austerity.
Greece's radical left-wing government has now blown out the candles celebrating its first year in power. But even before becoming prime minister, George Papandreou was left in no doubt as to the severity of the challenges facing Greece.
The outgoing conservatives had allowed public spending to explode in the run-up to the election, in the vain hope of cultivating votes. The public deficit went into double digits, with the debt-to-national income ratio well over 100pc.
Mr Papandreou was horrified by the hidden hole left by his predecessors. Interest rate payments alone on the national debt would be more than 7pc of government revenue each year, he was told.
Ethical
Mr Papandreou decided that massive austerity was neither feasible nor ethical. Greece then set about to ask for 'solidarity' from the European Union. This could be obtained without cost, or so it seemed. Other European countries borrowed at much lower yields.
So the plan was to simply get them to extend loans to Greece at the far better terms. That would have no upfront cash cost for the other governments, and it would keep foreign investors happy.
Mr Papandreou is a former sociology professor and a fervent internationalist. Burden-sharing with the rest of Europe to him seemed entirely rational in economic terms. It even seemed principled, given that Europe was gaining on trade with Greece. Thus began a campaign to request 'solidarity' from the EU that was to last months, and bring the EU to its most serious crisis yet. That crisis resulted in the establishment of a ginormous €750bn piggy bank that is now available to other eurozone governments, including Ireland, to tap into, should they ask for assistance with their funding.
My contacts in Greece were telling me, time and again, that once the solidarity came through, Greek borrowing rates would fall sharply. But the opposite happened. Yields skyrocketed, and Greece Inc was tainted with opprobrium.
Investors saw the provision of loans to Greece as just a blank cheque that opened the door to more fiscal irresponsibility. The direct involvement of Europe and the IMF in the domestic affairs of the country was seen as making the repayment of debt a political question, and an open question. Investors everywhere always abhor such uncertainty.
A call by Ireland now on the piggy bank provided by the IMF and the other eurozone governments would result in the death of the market for Irish bonds. Today it is very hard and quite costly for investment funds to either sell or buy Greek government bonds.
The Greek government no longer sells bonds, while many investors hoard the bonds they own. Even the ECB has been buying Greek bonds from some of the sellers. The end result is that the market for bonds hardly functions at all.
The easy part for the eurozone and the IMF was to dish out loans to Greece. The hard part, in a few years' time, is to envisage how it will ever get back to selling bonds in the market again. The same fate would befall Ireland as well if it were to seek 'solidarity'.
Worse than all of this would be the hit to reputation. Piggy banks are the preserve of kids. Blowing open the piggy bank is usually the last resort. It would be a signal to all of Ireland's trading partners that the risk of doing business is too high. A calamity for an open economy.
Yet Ireland's public deficit this year is running far above that of Greece, even without factoring in the cost of all the aid given to the banks.
The ratio of Ireland's public debt relative to national income could climb above that of Greece in a few years, under reasonable scenarios, unless there is a sharp change in government policies.
But borrowing from the eurozone/IMF piggy bank, probably at rates of around 5pc, is barely going to make a dent in the cost of rolling over the debt. So the only sure way for the Irish taxpayer to pay less in interest is to sharply rein in public spending and hike taxes over the coming years.
Welfare
Ireland has many advantages over Greece. For one, it is far richer. Wages in Ireland are among the highest in the EU. Income tax is almost zero for salaries below €30k a year. Some welfare benefits appear extraordinarily generous, compared to the rest of Europe. Ireland has virtually no wealth or residency taxes.
Pension entitlements are generous. Indeed, the present Government felt so confident last year on the budget outlook that it cut taxes on alcohol -- the only country in Europe that went out of its way to support the drinks industry and drinkers.
Foreign investors, when they study the figures for taxation and spending in Ireland, are all convinced that the budget can be brought under control if the government sets about it.
Some of the investors -- especially those that hold Irish government bonds -- tell me that they have been surprised at the readiness of the present Government to support domestic property and banking interests.
But they agree that Ireland is rich enough to be able to pay for all this aid. At the same time, they are reassured at the state access to a pot of ready cash.
Such wealth can either be further squandered, or else it can be used to decisively improve the outlook for public finances. Investors are giving the benefit of the doubt to Ireland for now. Ten-year government bonds are back to 6pc, ahead of the budget powwows.
That's their lowest level in a month. But investors will need to know shortly which way budget plans are heading, and if the present and the subsequent government will be up to the game.
Ciaran O'Hagan is a fixed income strategist at French bank, Societe Generale
Irish Independent
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Il caso "Grecia" visto dagli Irlandesi, con considerazioni sulle proprie vicende.
- Stato
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