tommy271
Forumer storico
e anche oggi vi siete presi la consueta dose di legnate
tenete, tenete, mi raccomando, anzi incrementate
Si fa beneficenza ...
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Si fa beneficenza ...
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece seeks help from British authorities over market-bashing email
By Associated Press, Thursday, April 21, 12:21 PM
ATHENS, Greece — The Greek police’s cybercrime division is seeking help from British authorities in locating the authors of an email, allegedly from a foreign bank, that may have been trying to roil the debt markets.
The police said Thursday it had asked for outside help after the finance ministry on Wednesday called for an investigation into “possible criminal conduct” related to an email that refers to a possible debt restructure over Easter weekend.
Local reports said the email came from an employee of U.S. bank Citigroup.
“We are cooperating with the authorities and do not consider there to have been any wrongdoing by Citi or its employees,” Citigroup said in a statement from its regional office in London.
On Wednesday, Athens’ main stock index plunged 2.6 percent and bond yields jumped on investor fears that Greece will eventually have to renege on some of its debt deals. The Greek government has repeatedly denied it would restructure any of its debt.
Yields on Greek 10-year bonds reached just under 15 percent Thursday, a record 11.8 points higher than the benchmarch German issue. Pressure was even greater on two-year Greek rates, which hit 23 percent.
Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou insisted on Wedesday that Greece can deal with its mountain of debt and that renewed access to bond markets is still possible in 2012 despite spiraling borrowing costs.
The government has promised to forge ahead with an ambitious privatization program worth €50 billion ($71.5 billion) through 2015 that has already run into strong union opposition.
Greece was saved from the brink of default last May by a €110 billion, three-year package of rescue loans from other European Union countries that use the euro as their currency, and the International Monetary Fund.
By Associated Press, Thursday, April 21, 12:21 PM
ATHENS, Greece — The Greek police’s cybercrime division is seeking help from British authorities in locating the authors of an email, allegedly from a foreign bank, that may have been trying to roil the debt markets.
The police said Thursday it had asked for outside help after the finance ministry on Wednesday called for an investigation into “possible criminal conduct” related to an email that refers to a possible debt restructure over Easter weekend.
Local reports said the email came from an employee of U.S. bank Citigroup.
“We are cooperating with the authorities and do not consider there to have been any wrongdoing by Citi or its employees,” Citigroup said in a statement from its regional office in London.
On Wednesday, Athens’ main stock index plunged 2.6 percent and bond yields jumped on investor fears that Greece will eventually have to renege on some of its debt deals. The Greek government has repeatedly denied it would restructure any of its debt.
Yields on Greek 10-year bonds reached just under 15 percent Thursday, a record 11.8 points higher than the benchmarch German issue. Pressure was even greater on two-year Greek rates, which hit 23 percent.
Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou insisted on Wedesday that Greece can deal with its mountain of debt and that renewed access to bond markets is still possible in 2012 despite spiraling borrowing costs.
The government has promised to forge ahead with an ambitious privatization program worth €50 billion ($71.5 billion) through 2015 that has already run into strong union opposition.
Greece was saved from the brink of default last May by a €110 billion, three-year package of rescue loans from other European Union countries that use the euro as their currency, and the International Monetary Fund.
giutrader
Forumer attivo
e anche oggi vi siete presi la consueta dose di legnate
tenete, tenete, mi raccomando, anzi incrementate
Ho switchato, non incrementato. Attendo ancora.. max 2 mesi se non inverte esco del tutto con loss sperando che non sia troppo tardi.
Rimango fiducioso nel vedere che non solo gli spread greci sono alle stelle ma anche irlandesi e portoghesi. Questo significa che si deve trovare una soluzione al problema ... daltronde ci sono ancora diverse cartucce da sparare prima di morire, anche se adesso il tempo sta scadendo ...
Alle quotazioni attuali il debito greco è pari a 180 mld, alla grecia sono stati erogati solo 57 mld dei 110mld del bailout
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
ANALYSIS - Funds, banks exposed to any Greek restructuring
By Dina Kyriakidou and George Georgiopoulous
ATHENS | Thu Apr 21, 2011 10:04pm IST
ATHENS (Reuters) - If Greece restructures its debt, it may choose to extend bond maturities rather than take the harsher step of cutting the amount of principal it repays. But the softer option might hurt Greek banks and state pension funds without doing enough to solve the country's debt problem.
A growing number of Greek politicians, including some from the ruling socialist party, is urging the government to bite the bullet and go for a "soft restructuring" as markets remain sceptical about fiscal and economic reforms.
Although the government strongly denies any restructuring is on the cards, many bankers and analysts believe Greece may have to choose one or more of several options sometime in the next couple of years: extending maturities, lowering interest rates, and cutting capital.
Of those, extending maturities seems the most likely; in a Reuters poll of 55 analysts this week, 38 said Greece would most likely use that method. Nineteen picked cutting the principal, known as a "haircut".
But merely extending maturities would be "a trick playing for time," said Jens-Oliver Niklasch, bond strategist at LBBW, who believes Greece will probably have to extend maturities and also make a haircut of 30-50 percent. "It is not enough."
MATURITIES
A simple maturity extension would have negative effects on Greek banks and state pension funds because they are sitting on big piles of Greek government bonds.
Greek banks are estimated to hold close to 20 percent of the country's estimated 327 billion euro sovereign debt, or nearly 60 billion euros. National Bank has the biggest share at 12.8 billion euros; the second biggest bank, EFG Eurobank, has about 7.4 billion euros, according to sources at the banks.
Greek social security funds hold slightly over 8 billion euros, according to the Finance Ministry. But their relative exposure is huge, as their liquid assets total 11.68 billion euros. IKA, the biggest fund, has almost two thirds of its liquid assets in Greek bonds and Treasury bills.
If they are unable to pay health and pension benefits, the state will be forced to help, which would further hurt its fiscal position as the government defies public opposition to impose waves of tough austerity measures.
Some analysts therefore think the Greek politicians who are urging debt rescheduling may not fully understand what it would entail.
"Maturity extension could be costly. Banks could be forced to make mark-to-market adjustments on their total Greek bond positions, not just the affected bonds," Deutsche Bank said in a recent report.
For example, a five-year Greek government bond with a coupon of 6.5 percent currently yields about 19 percent in the secondary market with its price at 61.8. If its maturity were extended to 10 years, its price could be expected to fall to 45.8, based on a drop of 26 percent in net present value, according to a calculation by an analyst at a Greek bank.
The impact of this would be limited by the fact that banks and pension funds hold the bulk of their bonds to maturity in their banking books, meaning -- depending on their accounting approaches -- that they would not have to take trading losses on those bonds.
"If repayment is extended on the bonds without an increase in the coupon, there will be a mark-to-market impact for bonds held in banks' trading books, but no direct impact on those held to maturity in their banking books," said Natixis Securities analyst Antoine Burgard.
But a pure extension of maturities would not actually cut Greece's debt burden, but simply shift part of it further into the future. So while it would help Greece's liquidity in the near term, it would not address its underlying problem.
For that reason Greece might also have to cut the interest paid on some of its outstanding debt, an option expected by 24 of the analysts in the Reuters poll. This would start to become painful for the banks and pension funds by reducing the income they received.
HAIRCUT
And if Greece resorted to a haircut, a debt restructuring could have a very substantial impact on banks' capital adequacy levels and on pension funds. For banks, a 30 percent haircut might cost them over 12 billion euros, and a 50 percent haircut, more than 24 billion euros, analysts estimated.
In the harsher 50-percent haircut scenario, all Greek banks would experience a capital shortfall and would need to recapitalise. This might force them to turn to Greece's 10 billion euro Financial Stability Fund (FSF).
Mediobanca Securities estimates that if there is a 43 percent haircut, the erosion of the core Tier 1 capital ratio of Greek banks would range from 2.07 percentage points for Alpha Bank to 7.68 percentage points for National Bank.
If one assumed banks had a core Tier 1 capital target of 9.5 percent of risk-weighted assets, this would mean Alpha Bank needed to raise additional capital of about 40 percent of its market value, now at 2.04 billion euros, Mediobanca estimated.
"A less severe assumption of a 20 percent haircut could be digested without additional capital pressure, with National Bank still enjoying a 10.3 percent Tier 1 ratio," analyst Alex Tsirigotis said in a recent report.
For troubled social security funds, any haircut could be catastrophic. Already facing the effects of an ageing population and a shrinking of the labour market, they were given a lifeline through recent reforms but their position is hardly secure. They would be dependent on a state that lacked the resources to support them.
"Greece has lived beyond its means for some time and I think they will pay the price," Niklasch said. "This will last a decade or even longer."
By Dina Kyriakidou and George Georgiopoulous
ATHENS | Thu Apr 21, 2011 10:04pm IST
ATHENS (Reuters) - If Greece restructures its debt, it may choose to extend bond maturities rather than take the harsher step of cutting the amount of principal it repays. But the softer option might hurt Greek banks and state pension funds without doing enough to solve the country's debt problem.
A growing number of Greek politicians, including some from the ruling socialist party, is urging the government to bite the bullet and go for a "soft restructuring" as markets remain sceptical about fiscal and economic reforms.
Although the government strongly denies any restructuring is on the cards, many bankers and analysts believe Greece may have to choose one or more of several options sometime in the next couple of years: extending maturities, lowering interest rates, and cutting capital.
Of those, extending maturities seems the most likely; in a Reuters poll of 55 analysts this week, 38 said Greece would most likely use that method. Nineteen picked cutting the principal, known as a "haircut".
But merely extending maturities would be "a trick playing for time," said Jens-Oliver Niklasch, bond strategist at LBBW, who believes Greece will probably have to extend maturities and also make a haircut of 30-50 percent. "It is not enough."
MATURITIES
A simple maturity extension would have negative effects on Greek banks and state pension funds because they are sitting on big piles of Greek government bonds.
Greek banks are estimated to hold close to 20 percent of the country's estimated 327 billion euro sovereign debt, or nearly 60 billion euros. National Bank has the biggest share at 12.8 billion euros; the second biggest bank, EFG Eurobank, has about 7.4 billion euros, according to sources at the banks.
Greek social security funds hold slightly over 8 billion euros, according to the Finance Ministry. But their relative exposure is huge, as their liquid assets total 11.68 billion euros. IKA, the biggest fund, has almost two thirds of its liquid assets in Greek bonds and Treasury bills.
If they are unable to pay health and pension benefits, the state will be forced to help, which would further hurt its fiscal position as the government defies public opposition to impose waves of tough austerity measures.
Some analysts therefore think the Greek politicians who are urging debt rescheduling may not fully understand what it would entail.
"Maturity extension could be costly. Banks could be forced to make mark-to-market adjustments on their total Greek bond positions, not just the affected bonds," Deutsche Bank said in a recent report.
For example, a five-year Greek government bond with a coupon of 6.5 percent currently yields about 19 percent in the secondary market with its price at 61.8. If its maturity were extended to 10 years, its price could be expected to fall to 45.8, based on a drop of 26 percent in net present value, according to a calculation by an analyst at a Greek bank.
The impact of this would be limited by the fact that banks and pension funds hold the bulk of their bonds to maturity in their banking books, meaning -- depending on their accounting approaches -- that they would not have to take trading losses on those bonds.
"If repayment is extended on the bonds without an increase in the coupon, there will be a mark-to-market impact for bonds held in banks' trading books, but no direct impact on those held to maturity in their banking books," said Natixis Securities analyst Antoine Burgard.
But a pure extension of maturities would not actually cut Greece's debt burden, but simply shift part of it further into the future. So while it would help Greece's liquidity in the near term, it would not address its underlying problem.
For that reason Greece might also have to cut the interest paid on some of its outstanding debt, an option expected by 24 of the analysts in the Reuters poll. This would start to become painful for the banks and pension funds by reducing the income they received.
HAIRCUT
And if Greece resorted to a haircut, a debt restructuring could have a very substantial impact on banks' capital adequacy levels and on pension funds. For banks, a 30 percent haircut might cost them over 12 billion euros, and a 50 percent haircut, more than 24 billion euros, analysts estimated.
In the harsher 50-percent haircut scenario, all Greek banks would experience a capital shortfall and would need to recapitalise. This might force them to turn to Greece's 10 billion euro Financial Stability Fund (FSF).
Mediobanca Securities estimates that if there is a 43 percent haircut, the erosion of the core Tier 1 capital ratio of Greek banks would range from 2.07 percentage points for Alpha Bank to 7.68 percentage points for National Bank.
If one assumed banks had a core Tier 1 capital target of 9.5 percent of risk-weighted assets, this would mean Alpha Bank needed to raise additional capital of about 40 percent of its market value, now at 2.04 billion euros, Mediobanca estimated.
"A less severe assumption of a 20 percent haircut could be digested without additional capital pressure, with National Bank still enjoying a 10.3 percent Tier 1 ratio," analyst Alex Tsirigotis said in a recent report.
For troubled social security funds, any haircut could be catastrophic. Already facing the effects of an ageing population and a shrinking of the labour market, they were given a lifeline through recent reforms but their position is hardly secure. They would be dependent on a state that lacked the resources to support them.
"Greece has lived beyond its means for some time and I think they will pay the price," Niklasch said. "This will last a decade or even longer."
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
Non ancora, però non ha più ruolo.
Lo stesso partito "Nuova Democrazia", non è visto come un'alternativa credibile al Pasok.
Tanto è vero che Papandreou, nonostante il bagno di sangue, riscuote ancora la maggioranza relativa nei sondaggi.
silverni
Nuovo forumer
@giub 21-04-2011, 12:55 #29143
C'è un equivoco di fondo; la mia domanda non punta a calcolare con esattezza gli eventuali tagli, ma solo a misurare gli stati d'animo e le aspettattive; alle tue domande specifiche non saprei come rispondere, ma non è questo il punto; ognuno dovrebbe limitarsi ad esprimere il proprio sentiment, senza la pretesa di arrivare ad una risposta certa, comune, condivisa; la mia proposta punta solo a un sondaggio più semplice da gestire rispetto a quello attuale.
Riformulo la domanda:
"Posto 100 per il pagamento integrale di cedole e capitale nei tempi già definiti, e 0 (zero) per la perdita totale di quanto investito, quanto pensi riceveranno gli investitori su TDS Greci?"
Ad oggi la mia risposta è 90
Saluti
LUP1051
Guest
e anche oggi vi siete presi la consueta dose di legnate
tenete, tenete, mi raccomando, anzi incrementate
Certo che ti accontenti di poco,,,,,per godere!!!!!!!!!!!
stefanofabb
GAIN/Welcome
mia riflessione
ho avuto l'opportunità "una" volta di acquistare obbligazioni ora in default ma che hanno un mercato semi liquido e così da poterle vendere OTC ecc...avendo la fortuna di recuperare il 90% come hai detto nel tuo post,dopo due anni emmezzo di lotta continua
..il problema si basa sulle conoscenze e speculazione della/sulla gente e anche su posizioni dei mercati in cui ti puoi mettere!ES: se possiedi un titolo e non lo puoi vendere al meglio sarebbe un problema e molte obbligazioni in mercato internazionale continuano ad essere trattate con prezzi molto differenti tra loro a seconda ,nelle decine di piazze borsistiche disponilbili!se la grecia fallirà o "sposterà il denaro da un'altra parte dell'europa"
che è più probabile,la patata bollente verrà messa in mano all'investitore che dovra fare i conti con mercati illiquidi ,in pratica non si riesce a vendere come si vuole
.la mia previsione sulla Grecia è quella che alla fine della partita si riuscirà ad avere in media il 65/70% del nominale investito comprensivo di cedole ma bisogna fare sforzi mettendoci anche tagli, stati d'animo e quello che si è perso strada facendo.
buona sera silverni.ho pensato tante volte ad un possibile acquisto dei tds Greci ma credo che non sia più il mio modo di operare anche se dovessero guadagnare il 50 % o più.
ho avuto l'opportunità "una" volta di acquistare obbligazioni ora in default ma che hanno un mercato semi liquido e così da poterle vendere OTC ecc...avendo la fortuna di recuperare il 90% come hai detto nel tuo post,dopo due anni emmezzo di lotta continua..il problema si basa sulle conoscenze e speculazione della/sulla gente e anche su posizioni dei mercati in cui ti puoi mettere!ES: se possiedi un titolo e non lo puoi vendere al meglio sarebbe un problema e molte obbligazioni in mercato internazionale continuano ad essere trattate con prezzi molto differenti tra loro a seconda ,nelle decine di piazze borsistiche disponilbili!se la grecia fallirà o "sposterà il denaro da un'altra parte dell'europa" che è più probabile,la patata bollente verrà messa in mano all'investitore che dovra fare i conti con mercati illiquidi ,in pratica non si riesce a vendere come si vuole .la mia previsione sulla Grecia è quella che alla fine della partita si riuscirà ad avere in media il 65/70% del nominale investito comprensivo di cedole ma bisogna fare sforzi mettendoci anche tagli, stati d'animo e quello che si è perso strada facendo.
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ibbius
Nuovo forumer
Ho comprato un pochino di stà ciofeka.
Vediamo se sono fortunato.
Ggb Mag12 Eur 5,25 - Borsa Italiana
Vediamo se sono fortunato.
Ggb Mag12 Eur 5,25 - Borsa Italiana
- Stato
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