tommy271
Forumer storico
Infatti avremo la Grecia con il più basso indebitamento tra i paesi dell'area Euro, ma con nessuno che gli farà più credito ...
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Infatti avremo la Grecia con il più basso indebitamento tra i paesi dell'area Euro, ma con nessuno che gli farà più credito ...
giub
New Membro
il problema è che nemmeno un taglio del 50% sarebbe sufficiente. Non potendosi finanziare su mercati occorre che il debito restante sia coperto con surplus primario. Quindi se proprio volessero provvedere all'haircut "definitivo" deve perlomeno essere del 70%...
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ficodindia
Forumer storico
E' incredibile!
S&S pur di giustificare il suo declassamento sulla Grecia, scusate il termine, "si para il ..", affermando che “Even if there was not a reduction of the nominal value of Greek bonds, such an extension is generally considered to be less favourable for private investors, compared with repayment on initial terms,” S&P said. (ANA) Da un taglio di almeno il 50% si è passati allo 0%!
Government strongly reacts to latest downgrade | Athens News
S&S pur di giustificare il suo declassamento sulla Grecia, scusate il termine, "si para il ..", affermando che “Even if there was not a reduction of the nominal value of Greek bonds, such an extension is generally considered to be less favourable for private investors, compared with repayment on initial terms,” S&P said. (ANA) Da un taglio di almeno il 50% si è passati allo 0%!
Government strongly reacts to latest downgrade | Athens News
tommy271
Forumer storico
Se azzerano il debito e non pagano più nessuno, faccio i bagagli e mi trasferisco in riva all'Egeo ...
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece will have difficulty to return to bond markets in 2012 – Greek labour minister Katseli
Mon, May 09 2011, 15:37 GMT | Forex Live
By: Gerry Davies
Market conditions make it hard to raise about 25 bln in 2012 as planned Euro zone discussions are about securing alternatives to market access next year Solutions for Greece will affect other euro zone countries
Mon, May 09 2011, 15:37 GMT | Forex Live
By: Gerry Davies
Market conditions make it hard to raise about 25 bln in 2012 as planned Euro zone discussions are about securing alternatives to market access next year Solutions for Greece will affect other euro zone countries
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece seeking EU help to plug 2012 funding gap - min
ATHENS | Mon May 9, 2011 11:40am EDT
ATHENS May 9 (Reuters) - Greece is in talks with its euro zone partners for ways to cover a 27 billion euro funding gap next year as its planned return to markets appears difficult, the country's labour minister said on Monday.
"The initial plan was to return to markets in 2012. At this moment this appears difficult," Labour Minister Louka Katseli told Reuters.
She said market conditions make it difficult to raise cash as planned next year and discussions with euro zone partners are aimed at finding an alternative solutions.
"Given that this is a systemic euro zone problem, a solution will affect all member countries," she added.
ATHENS | Mon May 9, 2011 11:40am EDT
ATHENS May 9 (Reuters) - Greece is in talks with its euro zone partners for ways to cover a 27 billion euro funding gap next year as its planned return to markets appears difficult, the country's labour minister said on Monday.
"The initial plan was to return to markets in 2012. At this moment this appears difficult," Labour Minister Louka Katseli told Reuters.
She said market conditions make it difficult to raise cash as planned next year and discussions with euro zone partners are aimed at finding an alternative solutions.
"Given that this is a systemic euro zone problem, a solution will affect all member countries," she added.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Analysis: Greece faces long-term bond market shut-out
By William James
LONDON | Mon May 9, 2011 10:21am EDT
LONDON (Reuters) - Greece is unlikely to be able to resume selling bonds next year, as originally agreed under an international bailout deal, and may find itself shut out of debt markets for more than a decade.
Under arrangements with the European Union and International Monetary Fund, a 110 billion euro bailout package agreed last May will cease to cover 100 percent of Greece's liabilities next year.
To make up the shortfall, Greece will need to tap markets for 26.7 billion euros in 2012, starting with 10.9 billion in the first quarter, according to the latest EU/IMF projections.
Greece last borrowed in the bond market in late April 2010 and has since only been rolling over short-term treasury bills.
But Greek debt prices suggest that far from a return to the market, a restructuring in the near future is seen as likely.
Yields on two-year debt exceed 25 percent, up from 14 percent at the start of 2011, leaving little doubt among market participants that investors would shun any attempt to issue new bonds.
"The probability that Greece that will be able to fund itself in the capital markets next year is very close to zero," said Kornelius Purps, strategist at Unicredit in Munich.
A secretive meeting of top euro zone officials appears to have reached the same conclusion last week, with Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker providing the first official acknowledgement that Greece needs more help.
More worryingly for Athens, analysts saw little hope that measures under consideration to resolve the 2012 funding gap would do anything to convince investors to buy Greek debt in the medium term.
"I don't believe that they will be able to tap the capital markets within the next two years, but I am also pessimistic about the next five years -- without a debt restructuring," said Birgit Figge, interest rate strategist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt.
Other analysts said that if Greece's huge debt ratio were not reduced, and its credibility with investors restored, the lock-out may last more than a decade.
KICKING THE CAN
Euro zone finance ministers will discuss what new steps could be taken on Greece at a May 16 meeting, with official sources and analysts saying the plan may include an easing of the bailout terms, additional loans and even a soft restructuring of Greek debt.
Extending the maturity of outstanding debt -- re-profiling -- would relieve some of the pressure surrounding the 40 billion euro repayment of maturing Greek debt and coupons in 2012, buying time for Athens to stabilize its finances, but without reducing the eventual burden.
"Re-profiling private sector obligations, i.e. Greek government bonds, buys them time but doesn't obviate the fact that they are fundamentally insolvent," said Rabobank strategist Richard McGuire.
Nevertheless, with further long-term loans to Greece or a 'hard' restructuring -- where investors are forced to write off a percentage of the face value on their bonds -- seemingly finding little political support, pursuit of some short-term relief may be the preferred solution.
"We have to go the ugly way, we need to support Greece on an ongoing basis and we need to avoid a euro exit or a haircut. (Otherwise) the risk that we run into a financial disaster via a domino effect is, in my view too high," Unicredit's Purps said.
T-BILLS BOTTLENECK
Greece's hitherto successful program of issued short-term debt could be the next victim of policymakers' piecemeal approach to shoring up Greek finances.
Greece has found willing investors from home and abroad for sales of treasury bills of up to six months in maturity since it resumed primary market activity in September.
But analysts said the appetite for T-bills was fueled by their likely exclusion from any restructuring of Greek debt, and demand from domestic banks who can use them as collateral to secure low-cost European Central Bank funding.
"Banks can take the T-bills to the central bank and recover the liquidity, it is allowed, the bills are ECB eligible... Whatever funds they lay out to buy T-bills can be retrieved by repo-ing the bills," said a treasurer at a Greek bank, who did not want to be named.
Demand has so far been insulated from pressures in the secondary market -- the most recent sale in April drew bids worth 3.45 times the 1.625 billion euros sold -- but could suffer if uncertainty continues, analysts said.
"Everything which is shielded, expiring before 2012 is definitely fine. Anything which expires after that date is a little bit tricky," said Chiara Cremonesi, rate strategist at Unicredit in London.
With 4.2 billion euros of T-bills expiring in July -- nearly half the current stock -- and some maturities likely to extend into 2012 when the paper is rolled, yields may start rising as the certainty of repayment decreases, analysts said.
"The question is can they continue funding this through the markets? Maybe they can, but the interest rate will be tremendous," said DZ Bank's Figge.
By William James
LONDON | Mon May 9, 2011 10:21am EDT
LONDON (Reuters) - Greece is unlikely to be able to resume selling bonds next year, as originally agreed under an international bailout deal, and may find itself shut out of debt markets for more than a decade.
Under arrangements with the European Union and International Monetary Fund, a 110 billion euro bailout package agreed last May will cease to cover 100 percent of Greece's liabilities next year.
To make up the shortfall, Greece will need to tap markets for 26.7 billion euros in 2012, starting with 10.9 billion in the first quarter, according to the latest EU/IMF projections.
Greece last borrowed in the bond market in late April 2010 and has since only been rolling over short-term treasury bills.
But Greek debt prices suggest that far from a return to the market, a restructuring in the near future is seen as likely.
Yields on two-year debt exceed 25 percent, up from 14 percent at the start of 2011, leaving little doubt among market participants that investors would shun any attempt to issue new bonds.
"The probability that Greece that will be able to fund itself in the capital markets next year is very close to zero," said Kornelius Purps, strategist at Unicredit in Munich.
A secretive meeting of top euro zone officials appears to have reached the same conclusion last week, with Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker providing the first official acknowledgement that Greece needs more help.
More worryingly for Athens, analysts saw little hope that measures under consideration to resolve the 2012 funding gap would do anything to convince investors to buy Greek debt in the medium term.
"I don't believe that they will be able to tap the capital markets within the next two years, but I am also pessimistic about the next five years -- without a debt restructuring," said Birgit Figge, interest rate strategist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt.
Other analysts said that if Greece's huge debt ratio were not reduced, and its credibility with investors restored, the lock-out may last more than a decade.
KICKING THE CAN
Euro zone finance ministers will discuss what new steps could be taken on Greece at a May 16 meeting, with official sources and analysts saying the plan may include an easing of the bailout terms, additional loans and even a soft restructuring of Greek debt.
Extending the maturity of outstanding debt -- re-profiling -- would relieve some of the pressure surrounding the 40 billion euro repayment of maturing Greek debt and coupons in 2012, buying time for Athens to stabilize its finances, but without reducing the eventual burden.
"Re-profiling private sector obligations, i.e. Greek government bonds, buys them time but doesn't obviate the fact that they are fundamentally insolvent," said Rabobank strategist Richard McGuire.
Nevertheless, with further long-term loans to Greece or a 'hard' restructuring -- where investors are forced to write off a percentage of the face value on their bonds -- seemingly finding little political support, pursuit of some short-term relief may be the preferred solution.
"We have to go the ugly way, we need to support Greece on an ongoing basis and we need to avoid a euro exit or a haircut. (Otherwise) the risk that we run into a financial disaster via a domino effect is, in my view too high," Unicredit's Purps said.
T-BILLS BOTTLENECK
Greece's hitherto successful program of issued short-term debt could be the next victim of policymakers' piecemeal approach to shoring up Greek finances.
Greece has found willing investors from home and abroad for sales of treasury bills of up to six months in maturity since it resumed primary market activity in September.
But analysts said the appetite for T-bills was fueled by their likely exclusion from any restructuring of Greek debt, and demand from domestic banks who can use them as collateral to secure low-cost European Central Bank funding.
"Banks can take the T-bills to the central bank and recover the liquidity, it is allowed, the bills are ECB eligible... Whatever funds they lay out to buy T-bills can be retrieved by repo-ing the bills," said a treasurer at a Greek bank, who did not want to be named.
Demand has so far been insulated from pressures in the secondary market -- the most recent sale in April drew bids worth 3.45 times the 1.625 billion euros sold -- but could suffer if uncertainty continues, analysts said.
"Everything which is shielded, expiring before 2012 is definitely fine. Anything which expires after that date is a little bit tricky," said Chiara Cremonesi, rate strategist at Unicredit in London.
With 4.2 billion euros of T-bills expiring in July -- nearly half the current stock -- and some maturities likely to extend into 2012 when the paper is rolled, yields may start rising as the certainty of repayment decreases, analysts said.
"The question is can they continue funding this through the markets? Maybe they can, but the interest rate will be tremendous," said DZ Bank's Figge.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Grecia, difficile ritorno su mercato capitali in 2012 - ministro
lunedì 9 maggio 2011 18:19
ATENE, 9 maggio (Reuters) - La Grecia è in trattativa con i propri partner della zona euro sulle modalità di copertura dei 27 miliardi di euro di buco previsto per le esigenze finanziarie dell'anno prossimo, considerato che il ritorno del paese al mercato dei capitali appare difficile. Lo ha detto il ministro del lavoro.
"Il piano iniziale era di ritornare sul mercato nel 2012. Al momento ciò appare difficile" ha affermato il ministro Louka Katseli, aggiungendo che le condizioni di mercato rendono difficile raccogliere i fondi previsti per l'anno prossimo e che i colloqui con i partner euroepi sono indirizzati a trovare soluzioni alternative.
"Dato che si tratta di un problema di sistema per la zona euro, la soluzione riguarda tutti i paesi" ha dichiarato.
***
In italiano.
lunedì 9 maggio 2011 18:19
ATENE, 9 maggio (Reuters) - La Grecia è in trattativa con i propri partner della zona euro sulle modalità di copertura dei 27 miliardi di euro di buco previsto per le esigenze finanziarie dell'anno prossimo, considerato che il ritorno del paese al mercato dei capitali appare difficile. Lo ha detto il ministro del lavoro.
"Il piano iniziale era di ritornare sul mercato nel 2012. Al momento ciò appare difficile" ha affermato il ministro Louka Katseli, aggiungendo che le condizioni di mercato rendono difficile raccogliere i fondi previsti per l'anno prossimo e che i colloqui con i partner euroepi sono indirizzati a trovare soluzioni alternative.
"Dato che si tratta di un problema di sistema per la zona euro, la soluzione riguarda tutti i paesi" ha dichiarato.
***
In italiano.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Grecia, Fitch verso taglio rating, dice stampa, ci sarà nota
lunedì 9 maggio 2011 18:22
BERLINO, 9 maggio (Reuters) - L'agenzia di rating Fitch vuole tagliare il rating della Grecia a 'B' o a 'B-', dall'attuale 'BB+'.
E' quanto scrive il quotidiano tedesco Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
Fitch non ha voluto commentare l'indiscrezione, si legge sul giornale.
L'agenzia di rating ha reso noto che più tardi probabilmente pubblicherà una nota sulla Grecia.
***
Manca Moody's ed abbiamo completato il trio.
lunedì 9 maggio 2011 18:22
BERLINO, 9 maggio (Reuters) - L'agenzia di rating Fitch vuole tagliare il rating della Grecia a 'B' o a 'B-', dall'attuale 'BB+'.
E' quanto scrive il quotidiano tedesco Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
Fitch non ha voluto commentare l'indiscrezione, si legge sul giornale.
L'agenzia di rating ha reso noto che più tardi probabilmente pubblicherà una nota sulla Grecia.
***
Manca Moody's ed abbiamo completato il trio.
ficodindia
Forumer storico
Qualche conto!
Ad esempio, se la Grecia attualmente ha un debito di circa 330 mld di euro significa che per il servizo del debito paga mediamente diciamo il 5%, ossia 16,5 mld, rappresentando il 7,5% del PIL, essendo il PIL circa 220 mld di euro. Ora se il debito si riduce di almeno il 50% l'onere del servizio si ridurrebbe a 8,2 mld euro, ossia solo il 3,7% del PIL, valore assolutamente irrisorio, molto più basso di quello riguardante i paesi virtuosi. E' giustificata tale cura da cavallo o è solo terrorismo finanziario?
P.S. I valori assoluti del PIL e del debito sono da verificare, tuttavia la sostanza del ragionamento credo comunque sia corretta.
Ad esempio, se la Grecia attualmente ha un debito di circa 330 mld di euro significa che per il servizo del debito paga mediamente diciamo il 5%, ossia 16,5 mld, rappresentando il 7,5% del PIL, essendo il PIL circa 220 mld di euro. Ora se il debito si riduce di almeno il 50% l'onere del servizio si ridurrebbe a 8,2 mld euro, ossia solo il 3,7% del PIL, valore assolutamente irrisorio, molto più basso di quello riguardante i paesi virtuosi. E' giustificata tale cura da cavallo o è solo terrorismo finanziario?
P.S. I valori assoluti del PIL e del debito sono da verificare, tuttavia la sostanza del ragionamento credo comunque sia corretta.
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- Stato
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