Quindi se fattura tanto non può fallire?
Non conosco molto la società, ma il business model non mi sembra dei migliori, e più che i 7.5 miliardi di fatturato, vedo i 100m di utile (tra l'altro con un margine dell'1.4%) e li paragono ai più di 10 miliardi di debiti.
Il debito è stato in parte rifinanziato qualche mese fa da un pool di banche, che di sicuro si saranno fatti 2 conti in più di quelli che ho fatto io, però non la metterei nella lista degli emittenti solidi
Il calo, assolutamente esagerato a mio parere, sta nel prospetto di un green bond.
RPT-Abengoa bonds hammered on accounting concerns
Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:08am EST
* Classification of non-recourse debt spooks investors
* Sell-off spreads to equity market
* Abengoa confident that investor education will cause rebound
By Robert Smith
LONDON, Nov 13 (IFR) - Abengoa's bonds tumbled in the secondary market on Thursday, as comments made on its latest results call triggered concerns about how the Spanish clean energy firm accounts for its debt.
"Both the bonds and equity are getting hammered today," said a high-yield portfolio manager.
Abengoa's longest dated bond - a EUR500m 6% 2021 note - closed on Wednesday bid at a cash price of 96, according to a bond investor. But by midday on Thursday the bid had collapsed to just 85, before slipping even lower - to just 83 - by mid-afternoon.
The company's share price meanwhile slumped today by more than 18% by 5pm London time, according to Thomson Reuters data.
The bond investor said that the sell-off came as Abengoa's management said on Wednesday's results call that debt raised by another group company, Abengoa Greenfield, will be classed as non-recourse.
The sell-off comes just one week after Abengoa Yield, a US-listed subsidiary, had to ditch plans to sell an unrated euro-denominated bond issue after investor resistance, forcing the company to hastily rejig its debut bond deal and target instead the US dollar market. Abengoa holds just over 64% of Abengoa Yield, a YieldCo structure that farms off operating assets into a listed entity that is run for dividends. The remaining shares are publicly traded.
But Abengoa's CEO Manuel Sanchez Ortega said in an interview with IFR that "the market's reaction is more based on sentiment rather than real facts".
"When you see the facts, anyone would agree that the company has been delivering on all of the plans we have issued to the market for the last two years," he added.
GUARANTEED CONFUSION
The company has usually raised bonds out of Abengoa SA, with the bonds structurally subordinated to billions of euros of project finance debt used to finance the group's energy and infrastructure assets. This project finance debt is considered non-recourse as it has no guarantee from the parent company, so it is not included in Abengoa's corporate debt figures.
In September, however, the company embarked on a new financing strategy, which saw it sell a debut bond out of Abengoa Greenfield, a then newly-created entity. This subsidiary will finance the early stages of its projects, replacing the need to raise costly bridge loans on a piecemeal basis.
A key selling point of the bond was that it carries the same guarantees and is part of the same restricted group as Abengoa's existing bonds. But some investors were surprised to learn from Abengoa's conference call on Wednesday that this debt will be classified as non-recourse, leaving them wondering how debt guaranteed by Abengoa could be considered non-recourse.
One bank analyst asked management to help him understand why the company was not including Greenfield bonds in its corporate debt figures, before raising concerns about how the ratings agencies will look at it.
Barbara Zubiria, an executive vice president at Abengoa, replied that the project finance bridge loans also typically carried corporate guarantees but were still considered non-recourse.
"It is pre-operational non-recourse debt," she said. "And that is accounted for as non-recourse debt, which is where existing bridge loans were being accounted for until now."
TRANSPARENCY CONCERNS
Many high-yield bond investors were not convinced by this explanation, however.
"I think a lot of investors have depended on the leverage and Ebitda figures presented to them, without really digging into their annual report or questioning what management tells them," said the bond investor.
"The company has so many different buckets of debt and management has cleverly used this to report reductions in reported net leverage."
Sanchez Ortega rejected this claim.
"In reality we are replacing expensive bridge debt with a bond at a reduced financing cost. The bridge debt being refinanced also had a parent guarantee."
The confusion over the classification of the company's non-recourse debt adds to many investors' complaints about the lack of transparency at Abengoa, with one UK high-yield fund manager saying that he will "never own any security of theirs in any of our funds" as a result.
Sanchez Ortega said that this was unfair as Abengoa's auditors at Deloitte had signed off on the accounting of the Greenfield bonds.
"This is not a lack of transparency; we explained everything openly on the call yesterday and when we issued the bond."
Concerns from debt investors now appear to be feeding through to the company's equity, however, due to Abengoa's dependence on being able to tap the capital markets at competitive levels.
"The outlook for funding costs of Abengoa Yield is important. The recent volatility in the high-yield market is not at all helpful for Abengoa Yield and very unhelpful for Abengoa," said an equity trader.
He added that debt market conditions would need to improve before the equity markets stop discounting Abengoa's shares.
Sanchez Ortega said that the company has been busy ringing and emailing investors to make sure they understand the facts, and he was confident that Abengoa's bonds will rebound.
"The markets in general have performed poorly since September," he said.
"We know our new strategy requires more education. We are spending time explaining that and we are confident it will be fully understood by the market." (Reporting by Robert Smith; editing by
Matthew Davies and Alex Chambers.)
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