Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1 (9 lettori)

[iguanito]

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upgrade su heidelberg cement

S&P upgrades HeidelbergCement Rating to BB with positive outlook
Buy long dated paper (e.g. the HEI 7.5% 04/20 offered at 106.3/Z-spread of 326 bps); Switch from the HEIGR 5.625% 01/18 into the HEIGR 8% 01/17 for a pick-up of 40 bps; Neutral on 5Y CDS at 247 bps
[FONT=Calibri,Calibri][FONT=Calibri,Calibri]S&P raised its long-term corporate credit rating on HeidelbergCement to BB from BB- with a positive outlook. At the same time, its B short-term rating was affirmed. The ratings on HeidelbergCement senior unsecured bonds were also raised to BB from BB-. However, the recovery rating on the bonds is unchanged at 3, indicating an expectation of meaningful (50%-70%) recovery in the event of a default. The upgrade reflects the agency’s view that HeidelbergCement's credit metrics will improve in 2011 commensurate to a BB credit as a result of consistent cash flow utilization towards deleveraging. S&P expects HeidelbergCement to generate sustainable cash flows in 2011 supported by cost savings and a stabilization in mature markets despite potential margin pressures. Furthermore, S&P expects management to remain prudent on acquisitions and shareholder remuneration, which will further aid de-leveraging. We concur with S&P‘s assessment and are comfortable with the company’s on-going net debt reduction and continued focus on deleveraging. We expect net leverage to further improve to 3.3x (c. 3.7x) in 2011, which should help the company move towards its medium term goal of a net leverage of below 2.8x. We continue to see good value in HeidelbergCement’s longer-dated bonds, notwithstanding minor tightening post this announcement. We keep our "buy" recommendation and view HeidelbergCement as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. [/FONT][/FONT]

 

[gionmorg]

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) March 18, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
said today that it raised its long-term corporate credit rating on German
heavy building materials manufacturer HeidelbergCement AG to 'BB' from 'BB-'.
At the same time, the 'B' short-term rating on HeidelbergCement was affirmed.
The outlook is positive.

In addition, we raised the issue ratings on HeidelbergCement's senior
unsecured bonds to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The recovery rating on the bonds is
unchanged at '3', indicating our expectation of meaningful (50%-70%) recovery
in the event of a payment default.

"The upgrade reflects our view that HeidelbergCement's credit metrics will
improve to levels commensurate with a 'BB' rating in 2011--such as funds from
operations to debt in the high teens--as a result of the group's consistent
allocation of cash flow to deleveraging," said Standard & Poor's credit
analyst Sabine Gromer.

We believe that HeidelbergCement's key U.S. and western European markets are
likely to move sideways in 2011, rather than see a meaningful recovery. Even
so, we do not anticipate that this would impair HeidelbergCement's ability to
generate sustainable operating cash flow, which, together with management's
maintenance of prudent spending on acquisitions and shareholder remuneration,
should translate into a further meaningful reduction in debt over the next 12
months.

Our base-case assumptions do not include sizable asset disposals beyond the
annual run rate and those already agreed. However, we note that additional
asset disposals, such as the sale of the U.S. brick operations, could
accelerate HeidelbergCement's deleveraging, if, as we assume, the group
allocates the proceeds to debt reduction.

We believe that a combination of cost savings and stabilization in
HeidelbergCement's mature markets, despite potential margin pressure in 2011,
will support cash generation and a further improvement in credit ratios. We
therefore believe that funds from operations to debt could improve, on a
sustainable basis, to above 20% in the near term, which we would consider
commensurate with a higher 'BB+' rating.

We could raise the rating if the improvements in HeidelbergCement's credit
metrics were achieved. Rating upside could be accelerated as a result of
higher debt reduction than we currently assume, following, for instance, a
greater number of asset disposals or an earlier market recovery in the U.S.

A revision of the outlook to stable could be warranted should
HeidelbergCement's credit metrics not improve in line with our current
projections. In our view, this could result from significantly more pricing,
volume, and margin pressure than we currently envisage, especially if this
were to constrict free cash flow generation and prevent debt reduction. We do
not believe that this scenario is likely at this stage.

 

[gionmorg]

da notare che oltre al nostro subordinato esiste anche XS0305155102 senior secured clondalkin eur 3m+2.0 taglio mimimo 50000 scad.2013 credo piuttosto illiquido ,prezzo forse sui 92.qualcuno lo conosce?

fabri, a quale subordinato ti riferisci?

 

[gionmorg]

http://www.jyskebank.dk/_jb/commoninc/bin.asp?id=299317&src=selskabskalender.pdf

 

[fabriziof]

fabri, a quale subordinato ti riferisci?

xs0188274848, quello che abbiamo noi scad.2014 ,è un senior unsecured

 

[gionmorg]

appunto senior non subordinato?

 

[fabriziof]

appunto senior non subordinato?

subordinato rispetto al senior secured quindi più a rischio in caso di default

 

[gionmorg]

ah ok

 

[fabriziof]

ah ok

chi sente iw potrebbe chiedere se il clondalkin XS0305155102 è negoziabile e a che prezzi?

 

[bosmeld]

Il recovery sarà tutto sull'azionario Seat. Quindi, le sorti di questo bond sono legate a quelle dell'andamento del titolo Seat. Qui c'è solo da sperare che qualcuno ci metta dentro dei soldi (200-300 mln) per sostenere i corsi e dare delle aspettative serie alla baracca, altrimenti anche la conversione debt/equity sarà fallimentare e i creditori manderanno in default Lighthouse (e quindi anche Seat). Non solo, la conversione di 1.300 mln di euro in azioni di una società che capitalizza 150 mln, ammesso che si riesca a fare, porterebbe a una irrazionale diluizione dell'azionariato. Quindi, l'unica via di salvezza - a mio parere - sarebbe un'acquisizione da parte di qualche coraggioso gruppo industriale che possa sostenere il debito da 2.700 mln. A mali estremi, invece, ci potrebbe stare un default pilotato (già nei prezzi del titolo azionario) con ricorso alla Legge Marzano che salvaguardi la realtà industriale lasciando però a bocca asciutta i creditori Lighthouse. Ne verrebbe fuori una nuova Seat, con debiti dimezzati.

grazie per il veloce riassunto


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