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Ceva Logistics
Ceva Logistics is expected to release Q1/11 results on Monday, May 9th. FY 2010 results were stronger y-o-y, with a revenue growth of 25% and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 24%, supported by a strong rebound of freight management (FM). However, cash flow generation suffered due to higher capex, interest costs and working capital outflows. Q1 revenue is expected to positively benefit from higher volumes industry-wide in the auto and consumer/retail space, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. With Ceva’s intention to concentrate on the ocean freight segment in FY 2011, we estimate that the operations could have had a minor set back from the Japan quake. We estimate Q1/11 revenues of EUR 1.75 bn with strong contribution continuing from FM and a slight recovery in contract logistics from new contracts, specifically with key customers. Adjusted EBITDA should be c. EUR 80-85 mn and slightly lower sequentially. Earnings are likely to come under pressure from exceedingly higher crude prices and logistics costs. We expect net debt to reflect working capital outflows, offset by a weaker USD and a favourable currency effect (as large part of Ceva’s debt is in USD while it reports in EUR). Net leverage on PF LTM EBITDA (including FY 2010 run-rate savings) is expected to improve marginally to 6.3x-6.4x. Adjusted net leverage (including substantial operating lease liabilities) is estimated to be c. 7x. We keep our “High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale.
Ceva Logistics is expected to release Q1/11 results on Monday, May 9th. FY 2010 results were stronger y-o-y, with a revenue growth of 25% and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 24%, supported by a strong rebound of freight management (FM). However, cash flow generation suffered due to higher capex, interest costs and working capital outflows. Q1 revenue is expected to positively benefit from higher volumes industry-wide in the auto and consumer/retail space, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. With Ceva’s intention to concentrate on the ocean freight segment in FY 2011, we estimate that the operations could have had a minor set back from the Japan quake. We estimate Q1/11 revenues of EUR 1.75 bn with strong contribution continuing from FM and a slight recovery in contract logistics from new contracts, specifically with key customers. Adjusted EBITDA should be c. EUR 80-85 mn and slightly lower sequentially. Earnings are likely to come under pressure from exceedingly higher crude prices and logistics costs. We expect net debt to reflect working capital outflows, offset by a weaker USD and a favourable currency effect (as large part of Ceva’s debt is in USD while it reports in EUR). Net leverage on PF LTM EBITDA (including FY 2010 run-rate savings) is expected to improve marginally to 6.3x-6.4x. Adjusted net leverage (including substantial operating lease liabilities) is estimated to be c. 7x. We keep our “High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale.
