Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1

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ArcelorMittal’s Rights Issue and Asset Sale Are Positive, but Leverage
Remains Elevated
Last Friday, ArcelorMittal (Ba2 negative) announced that it had completed a fully underwritten equity raise
of $3.0 billion and had sold its 35% stake in joint venture Gestamp Automoción, S.A. (Ba3 stable) to the
majority shareholder, the Riberas family, for €875 million. The two actions are credit positive for
ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel manufacturer, because they will strengthen the company’s balance
sheet and allow the company to reduce debt, which would reduce annual interest charges and improve free
cash flow.
However, ArcelorMittal’s operating performance continues to deteriorate because of falling steel and iron
ore prices, which have resulted in the company’s reported EBITDA declining to $5.2 billion in 2015 from $7.2
billion in 2014. The company’s 2016 guidance is for EBITDA of more than $4.5 billion.
Pro forma for the asset sale and the rights issue, we expect that ArcelorMittal’s full-year 2015 gross leverage
ratio will decrease by approximately one turn to 5.0x. Our estimate is based on our assumptions that the
company will apply all of the proceeds to reducing its gross reported debt to $15.8 billion from $19.8 billion
as of 31 December 2015; that 2015 EBITDA, including our adjustments, totals $5.3 billion; and Moody’sadjusted
total debt is $26.8 billion.
However, the reduction in leverage may not be sustainable in 2016: ArcelorMittal’s EBITDA guidance for
full-year 2016 of more than $4.5 billion is 14% lower than the 2015 level. Based on the company’s guidance
and our standard adjustments to EBITDA, we expect that the company’s debt/EBITDA ratio will rise to
nearly 6.0x (or more) at the end of 2016, which is high for its Ba2 rating category. The company in the
future will be better positioned to withstand prolonged pressure on prices as a result of its proposed fiveyear
strategic plan and associated improvement in EBITDA, which should allow the company to reduce
leverage starting in 2017.
The capital increase will be completed via a rights issue and the company’s main shareholder, the Mittal
family, will contribute approximately $1.1 billion, which corresponds to its pro-rata entitlement. We see this
as proof of the family’s commitment to the company. We expect the transaction to close in the second
quarter of 2016.
Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal had sales of $63.6 billion and steel shipments of 84.6 million tonnes in
2015. The company also has sizable captive supplies of iron ore and coking coal as well as a trading and
distribution network
 
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