Interessante analisi
The euro zone government bonds - an asset class in tatters
Christophe Bernard, chief strategist at Vontobel Group
"Eat well with stocks, bonds with good sleep," according to the old stock market adage government bonds are equivalent to a secure facility. Given the turmoil in the European Monetary Union (EMU), but nothing seems to be reality stranger than this estimate. Thus, for Euro investors, the question of what to do with the supposedly safe part of the portfolio.
After the introduction of the euro in 1999, aligned with the interest rate and cross-border lending soared. The differences in productivity and the gross domestic product per head seemed to decrease, while the European Union witnessed an ever closer economic integration - to the bursting of the credit bubble in 2008, the unpleasant truth brought to light: A large part of the economic miracle, especially in the so-called peripheral countries, based on indebtedness, to lead unsustainable imbalances. 2012, Greece's private debt not serve more, Ireland and Portugal take an international bailout in demand and the economic situation in Spain is alarming. Moreover, in the political debate in France and the Netherlands asked the question whether cost-cutting measures pay off without concurrent growth.
€-risk underestimate
underestimated in our view, market participants, the political risks in the euro Zusammenhangmit project. The major advantages of a common currency have less and less inventory: instead of being smaller, the interest rate differential between Germany and is the other countries of the euro area increases. Cross-border loans, there are now no more. The swings in the markets are so large that investors sometimes ask whether they should invest at all. On the one hand, the return on ten-year German government bonds 1.7 percent - a rate level that is not about the strong German fundamentals, but the logical fears of a collapse reflects the EMU -, on the other hand, many markets are directly or indirectly on the drip of the European Central Bank, to Extraordinary measures have resorted to in order to increase liquidity. In such an environment to keep international investors, of course . back Excluding Germany from, so have government bonds of Euro area - a market in the amount
of four billion euros -. on a rating of A + at a current yield of 3.9 percent bonds of France, Italy and Spain make up over 70 percent of the volume. For comparison, the external debt of emerging countries (JPMorgan EMBI Global diversified) is rated at BBB-, the current yield is 5.4 percent. We advise investors therefore strongly relevant to emerging market debt as an alternative account. Among the advantages of such systems include a high degree of diversification, a positive rating momentum and higher returns. This asset class is denominated in U.S. dollars, there are therefore no costs for hedging of exposures.
focus on corporate and emerging market bonds
In general, we advise caution in equities, since risk and return in a relationship are unattractive. The (at least compared with the expectations), especially in the U.S., solid corporate earnings for the first quarter have contributed to the onset of the correction in early April was so far limited. Loss risks appear to be limited for the same reason. We doubt, however, that the U.S. companies the impending budgetary adjustments that are noticeable in 2013 to withstand, without damage. As for European companies, the impact of government austerity measures come in the form of higher taxes or more stringent government regulations all too obvious. Government bonds from developed countries are not an acceptable alternative for us, so we maintain our underweight position and hold it in anticipation of higher than average cash investment opportunities. We provide the unique high-yield corporate bonds and bonds of emerging countries