Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1

[qquebec]

Eircom sotto attacco dei creditori

Un secondo filone di senior debt holders (i possessori del bond BCM Ireland TV 2016) sta facendo di tutto per farsi riconoscere da Eircom quale parte in gioco per la ristrutturazione del debito. Ma la società non vuole temendo un intralcio ai piani di recovery. I debitori delle obbligazioni subordinate (PIK) già non erano stati ammessi, mentre fra i senior lenders solo alle banche era stato concesso di trattare con la società.
A breve conosceremo i piani di ristrutturazione del debito di Eircom.
Pressure piles on Eircom from second lender group over debt - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

 

[fabriziof]

Un secondo filone di senior debt holders (i possessori del bond BCM Ireland TV 2016) sta facendo di tutto per farsi riconoscere da Eircom quale parte in gioco per la ristrutturazione del debito. Ma la società non vuole temendo un intralcio ai piani di recovery. I debitori delle obbligazioni subordinate (PIK) già non erano stati ammessi, mentre fra i senior lenders solo alle banche era stato concesso di trattare con la società.
A breve conosceremo i piani di ristrutturazione del debito di Eircom.
Pressure piles on Eircom from second lender group over debt - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

intanto con iw niente cedola pik.vediamo che mi rispondono

 

[gionmorg]

Ciao Ragazzi,
da oggi sono pienamente operativo

 

[bia06]

Welcome back !!!

Ciao Ragazzi,
da oggi sono pienamente operativo

 

[gionmorg]

Norske 7,0% 38/48
Norske 11,75% 53/58



... da seguire, comunque, giusto per rimanere in tema col 3D

Moody’s downgrades Norske’s CFR by two notches to Caa1; maintains “negative” outlook
We remain “Neutral” on 3Y and 5Y CDS at current levels (c. 3,000 bps). Given the high level of covenant risk we continue to recommend to avoid its bonds at present. We have a “Very High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale, which we revised on August 5th
Yesterday, Moody’s downgraded Norske’s CFR to Caa1 from B2 while retaining the ”negative” outlook. The agency also downgraded the ratings on Norske’s outstanding bonds to Caa1. According to Moody’s, the downgrade reflects the group's weak operational performance in Q2 FY 2011 in combination with a muted full-year outlook. As a result, Moody’s deemed it necessary to revise its full-year profitability and cashflow expectations downward. The agency also notes the diminishing covenant headroom under Norske’s EUR 140 mn RCF and is of the opinion that the company needs to proactively improve its leverage position due to a potential tightening of levels over the next few quarters. A failure in achieving these improvements could restrict access to the facility and result in severe liquidity pressure in the coming quarters. Moody’s further notes that the fact that the company was unable to procure the intended price increases in newsprint for Q3 FY 2011 will weigh on its profile despite an anticipated improvement in its profitability in H2 on account of seasonal effects and the restart of Saugbrugs. Moody’s believes that, while the recent refinancing exercise has supported the financial profile, much more needs to be done given the tightening headroom. The “negative” outlook also indicates the scope for further downgrades if Norske is unable to enhance profitability or secure additional disposals over the next few months. We broadly agree with Moody’s assessment, which resembles our analysis of the situation (please refer to our Earnings Flash dated August 5th for details). We have a “Very High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale.

 

[whitesoul9]

Ciao Ragazzi,
da oggi sono pienamente operativo

bentornato!

 

[gionmorg]

Q2 results review: focus on restructuring
Move to “Sell” on the NOVASP 9.625% in the mid 50s
Novasep released another set of weak quarterly figures, but largely confirmed its guidance. Revenues decreased by 5.7% to EUR 75.5 mn while adjusted EBITDA slumped by 28.4% to EUR 11.1 mn. The very poor performance of the Synthesis segment was once more the main catalyst for the weak figures. In H1, the segment reported revenues dropping 23.9% to EUR 40.2 mn, mostly as a result of new, less favourable contract terms for the Gilead supply agreement (this accounted for 9% of the decline) and the declining legacy business (13%). However, the Process segment continued to perform well, with H1 revenues up 53.3% to EUR 61.7 mn This was due to strong activity in the equipment systems business and growth in its biopharma operations. Management kept its FY 2011 guidance mostly unchanged, including consolidated sales of EUR 285-295 mn (previously EUR 280-300 mn) and an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 40-45 mn (previously EUR 40-50 mn). It expects to incur further cash restructuring charges of EUR 10-15 mn (previously EUR 5-10 mn). During the conference call, the company did not provide much colour on the restructuring processes but confirmed that negotiations are on-going. In our view, the process poses a challenge and we expect that bondholders will have to accept a substantial haircut as current leverage at above 10x is not sustainable. We keep our assessment of “Default” on the LARA scale and move to “Sell” on our recommendation as we believe that bonds are expensive vs. some higher beta performing credits.

 

[gionmorg]

Grazie

 

[gionmorg]

Seat PG Further reports in Italian press of upcoming debt restructuring
Move from “Hold” to “Speculative Buy” PGIM 10.5% 01/17 at a price at or below 80 (currently ask price is at 83)
Yesterday, Italian newspaper La Stampa reported that Seat may announce its debt restructuring in September. Even though the shares rallied 8% at closing prices, market capitalisation is still only EUR 94 mn. H1 results are expected to be announced on 29th August. This is the second such report this summer. We would be pleasantly surprised if the debt restructuring was announced that early, as we were expecting the spill-over of the European Debt Crisis to Italy to negatively impact negotiations. We continue to believe the fulcrum security is the Lighthouse bonds, with a consensual agreement between the various parties the most likely outcome. We believe, as we have commented before, that management is on track to turning around the business, through a refocus on a SME web agency type model. We view the reselling agreement reached with Google Adwords this year as key. We are not convinced, however, that the corner has been turned and we hope to see confirmation of a stabilisation in EBITDA (and margin) in the coming quarters. Earlier this year, management clearly indicated its confidence in meeting all cash obligations in 2011 including Lighthouse coupons and we eagerly await an update on Seat’s cash position and liquidity in that context. That said, given the significant widening of PGIM bonds recently, we believe the senior secured paper has become attractive and move from “Hold” to “Speculative Buy” at a price of 80. We continue to believe recoveries in Lighthouse will be decent, however, given the extra uncertainty provided by the Italian macro economic environment, we feel senior secured paper provides a better risk adjusted return currently. PGIM 10.5% 01/17 offers an attractive cash yield and good upside with limited downside, as we believe recoveries would be in the 90% to 100% range (thus providing at least a 10 point gain at our suggested entry price of 80). As an aside, we note S&P’s downgrade of Yell from B- to CCC+ yesterday. We do not think this downgrade will impact Seat significantly as the two names have managed their online conversion in different ways and are at different stages of recovery. We note Yell’s new strategy unveiled on July 14th is focussed on becoming an SME “eMarketplace” leader. We maintain our “Very High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale.

 

[gionmorg]

Tutte e tre le emissioni di ATU Auto sono sui minimi dell'anno e in particolare la TV 2014 ha raggiunto quota 55. Anche se ci sono discrete prospettive di tenuta dei conti, il consiglio è quello di entrare nell'ottica di disfarsi del titolo

ATU Q2 conference call highlights: challenging outlook though business picked up lately
“Hold” ATUGRP Float 6M +725 bps 10/14 at 65 (discount margin of 2,407 bps) and the senior ATUGRP 11% 05/14 at 78 or a Z-spread of 2,046 bps
During A.T.U’s conference call, management did a fairly good job in explaining the underperformance vs. guidance in its previous conference call. The much worse than expected numbers were primarily the result of an extremely poor second half of May and June (the call was mid May). Further, it explained a new incentive system for employees focussing on monthly bonus payments, with encouraging results. A.T.U guided for a full year EBITDA of EUR 80-100 mn (depending on weather). Taking into consideration the weakening performance and the significant working capital needs in Q1, in an unfavourable scenario liquidity may become tight at the beginning of next year (furthermore in April, the company had conditions to pay EUR 10 mn for the acquisition of equipment for its Weiden facility). We keep our “High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale. For more details, please refer to our Earnings Flash from Friday.