lo osservo da giorni
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/rd/de/anleihen/factsheet?ID_NOTATION=61849432
da quando ha pubblicato i dati (pessimi) del 2012 è sceso a picco
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MMC's cash flows in 2013 will likely be significantly weaker than we had
anticipated because of lower product prices.
The Mongolia-based coal mining company's cash flow adequacy and leverage
ratios will therefore be much weaker than we expected and more consistent
with a "highly leveraged" financial risk profile.
We are lowering our long-term corporate credit rating on MMC to 'B' from
'B+' and our issue rating on the company's senior unsecured notes to 'B'
from 'B+'.
The negative outlook reflects MMC's declining liquidity cushion, given
the company's large debt maturities over the next 12 months.
SINGAPORE (Standard & Poor's) May 14, 2013--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
said today that it had lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on
Mongolia-based coal mining company Mongolian Mining Corp. (MMC) to 'B' from
'B+'. The outlook is negative. At the same time, we lowered our issue rating
on MMC's senior unsecured notes to 'B' from 'B+'.
"We downgraded MMC to reflect our view that the company's cash flow adequacy
ratios will likely be weaker than we had earlier anticipated for the rest of
2013 and 2014," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Xavier Jean.
We now expect MMC's ratio of funds from operations (FFO) to debt to be between
negative 2.5% and 0% and the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio to exceed 15x for
the next 12 months. These ratios are consistent with a "highly leveraged"
financial risk profile, compared with our previous assessment that the
company's financial risk profile is "aggressive." Our assessment is despite
our expectation that MMC's absolute debt will reduce after the company repays
about US$167 million in convertible bonds and bank loans in 2013.
We lowered our projections of MMC's EBITDA to US$50 million-US$60 million and
our FFO forecast to about negative US$10 million in 2013. Demand growth in
China's steel end markets is recovering slower than we had anticipated. Market
sentiment has not yet turned and the pace of supply rationalization appears to
have slowed.
MMC's cash flow adequacy ratios are likely to remain weak in 2014, even if we
factor in a possible improvement in coal prices. We estimate that MMC's
debt-to-EBITDA ratio will remain slightly above 6x, assuming 7 million
tons-7.5 million tons of coking coal sales and an increase in hard coking coal
prices to US$115-US$120 per ton. This ratio would be commensurate with a
"highly leveraged" financial risk profile.
MMC's sizeable debt due in the first half of 2014 has reduced its liquidity
buffer to absorb a decline in coal prices. We expect MMC's cash balance to
continue to decline to about US$45 million-US$65 million by the end of 2013
because of debt repayments, working capital requirements, and limited internal
cash accruals. This compares with a US$284 million cash balance at the
beginning of 2013. The lower cash balance will leave MMC with limited cushion
against elements mostly beyond the company's control, notably further price
declines or working capital swings, for the rest of the year.
The rating on MMC also reflects the company's mineral concentration in coking
coal, customer concentration risks, and its exposure to an untested and
evolving regulatory environment in Mongolia. MMC's reduced project development
risk and a fair cost position partly offset these weaknesses.
MMC's liquidity is "less than adequate," as our criteria define the term. We
expect MMC's liquidity sources to exceed its liquidity needs by about 1.1x
over the next 12 months.
"The negative outlook on MMC reflects the company's declining liquidity buffer
against a persisting weakness in coal prices," said Mr. Jean. "The outlook
also reflects our view that the company's cash flow adequacy ratios will
likely remain weak in 2014."
We could lower the rating if MMC's liquidity weakens further. This could
materialize if: (1) average selling prices for hard coking coal drop below
US$95 per ton for more than four months; (2) MMC's working capital
requirements rise unexpectedly, possibly due to delays in customer
receivables; or (3) the company faces difficulties or delays in refinancing or
postponing maturities in the first half of 2014.
We could revise the outlook to stable if we consider MMC's liquidity risk and
refinancing risk to have diminished. This could happen if the company rebuilds
its liquidity buffer by refinancing or postponing debt due in 2014, and coking
coal prices sustainably increase above US$115 per ton.
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chiedo venia in anticipo se ho cannato 
