generali1984 ha scritto:
Ciao Big
grazie è qualche giorno che respiro un pò
il quesito posto dal tuo post è molto intelligente ,
per ora no , e se non porta un pochino di inflazione una svalutazione del 50% ........
bhè per quelli come me è proprio ora di darsi ai cavalli
bene che l'economia interna è in agonia ( lo sarebbe senza sovvenzioni e deficit spending ) bene che la manifattura viene importata a sempre minor costo , ma il dubbio su come facciano le statistiche inizia anche a farsi strada !!
come riporti sopra , ormai tutti tanti omini Jap investono in asset esteri ,
e mi sembra ci siano paesi che fanno obbligazioni appositamente dedicate
(Nuova Zelanda e Australia in testa ) agli intrepidi del sol levante ,
anche qui ci sarà un prezzo da pagare immagino , ma se il conto arrivasse fra qualche anno e nel frattempo il cambio va a 1,80-1,90 sai che strage di contrarian ?
il governo guarda benevolo , i grandi speculatori lo stesso (presumo) ; c'è chi si è arricchito in tal senso , gli omini jap ugualmente perchè lucrano sul cambio e sugli interessi .................
.....mi rammento dei mutui in ECU al tempo del deficit spending di italica memoria
solo che qui sembra un pò più in grande la cosa .
Sempre lucido nelle tue analisi
Lo scenario è chiaro ma la sensazione di immutabilità e di eternità dello stesso mi incute un certo timore operativo e mi costringe a coprire le mie posizioni se non addirittura ad aumentare l'esposizione short.
Gli investitori finanziari giapponesi non hanno mai subito un vero rovescio finanziario ma a me sembra ora che percepiscano il senso di tutto questo se no sarebbe un duro colpo a tutti i liberisti dei mercati.
Comunque i bond stanno subendo notevoli pressioni al ribasso....
Japan's Bonds Drop as Rally in Stocks Limits Demand for Debt
By Issei Morita
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's 10-year government bonds fell the most since April 4 as a rally in local stocks sapped demand for the relative safety of debt.
Yields on 10-year bonds climbed to the highest in a week as shares of exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp. rose on speculation a weakening yen will boost profit. The spread between yields on two-year notes and 30-year bonds held near the widest in six weeks as traders prepared for the 600 billion yen ($5.04 billion) sale of Japan's longest-maturity debt tomorrow.
``The advance in shares is hurting demand for bonds,'' said Norihisa Takao, who helps oversee the equivalent of $43 billion of debt at Daiwa Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``The yield curve has steepened as people prepared for the bond auction tomorrow.''
The yield on the benchmark 1.7 percent bond due March 2017 rose 3.5 basis points, or 0.035 percentage point, to 1.695 percent as of 3:03 p.m. in Tokyo at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest interdealer debt broker. The price, which moves inversely to the yield, fell 0.298 yen to 100.042 yen.
Ten-year yields may rise to 1.8 percent by the end of September, Takao said. The yield today advanced as high as to 1.7 percent, a level unseen since April 9.
Bond futures for June delivery dropped 0.42 to 133.70 in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained as much as 1.9 percent today after the yen dropped to a record low against the euro.
Ten-year yields have climbed 4.5 basis points since March 30 as the Nikkei 225 gained about 2 percent in the same period.
Sustained Expansion
``Although risks remain, the global economy is having its strongest sustained expansion in more than 30 years,'' the Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers said in a statement in Washington on April 13.
The drop in debt was tempered by speculation investors will be attracted to yields at the highest since April 9.
``The market will probably rebound after being weak during the earlier trading,'' said Kazuhiko Sano, chief strategist in Tokyo at Nikko Citigroup Ltd., the fifth-largest buyer at government debt auctions. ``Demand to buy on dips is strong.''
Ten-year yields on April 9 touched 1.7 percent, the highest since Feb. 21. Bonds gained the following day.
The spread between yields on two- and 30-year debt was 1.545 percentage points on April 13, according to data compiled by Bloomberg using compound yields. The difference reached 1.546 percentage points on April 6, the widest since Feb. 21.
Brokerages that bid at auctions often sell bonds beforehand to hedge against a possible drop in prices before they can pass them on to investors. Japan will sell 20-year bonds next week.
Accelerating Inflation
``Longer bonds may stay weaker before the auction,'' said Mitsumaru Kumagai, chief fixed-income strategist in Tokyo at the local unit of Merrill Lynch & Co., one of 25 primary dealers required to bid at government debt sales. ``Over the next week or so, the yield curve will probably have a bias to steepen'' with the new supply of longer bonds coming into the market.
Bonds also declined on concern global inflation will accelerate. U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell on April 13, pushing yields to the highest since Feb. 14, after a private report showed expectations for inflation in a year from now rose.
``It's true that there is no urgent risk for inflation in Japan, but the country shares a long-term inflationary risk as same as other industrialized countries do,'' said Chotaro Morita, chief debt strategist at Deutsche Securities Ltd. in Tokyo.
A Japanese government report last week showed producer-price inflation accelerated for the first time in six months in March.
Options Strategy
Investors should simultaneously sell call and put options on Japan's bond futures for June delivery because the outlook for unchanged interest rates will limit price swings, according to Daiwa Securities SMBC Co.
Sell call options with a strike price of about 135 yen and sell put options with a strike of 132 yen by the end of May, said Hidenori Suezawa, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities. Call options give the owner the right, not the obligation, to buy bond futures at a specific price by a fixed date in exchange for a fee. A put option grants the right to sell.
``Bond futures will probably stay in a narrow range this quarter because volatility remains low and few expect interest rates to rise,'' said Tokyo-based Suezawa, whose company is the largest buyer at government debt auctions. ``The sellers of options may profit on the premium as bond futures may not reach the strike price during a period of low volatility.''
Implied volatility of call options on June bond futures dropped to 2.66 percent on April 13 from 3.11 percent a month ago. Implied volatility, a gauge of traders' expectation for future price swings, decreases as demand for options falls.
To contact the reporter on this story: Issei Morita in Tokyo at
[email protected] .
Last Updated: April 16, 2007 02:32 EDT
