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"Treasuries maturing in 10 years or more were falling before the producer price report on speculation the government will sell 30-year bonds for the first time since 2001 to meet demand from pension funds. "
U.S. Treasury Notes Extend Declines After Producer Prices Rise
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes extended their declines after a government report showed a measure of wholesale prices rose more than forecast, a sign of accelerating inflation.
The benchmark 4 percent note maturing in February 2015 decreased more than 1/2, or $5 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 15/16 at 8:32 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield increased 7 basis points to 4.25 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The note was down about 1/4 of a point before the report.
The 0.8 percent increase in the Labor Department's producer price index, excluding food and energy, compares with a 0.2 percent gain in December. The median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was a for a rise of 0.2 percent.
Optimism that inflation will remain tame helped pushed the yield on the 10-year note below 4 percent last week for the first since October. Inflation erodes the value of fixed-income payments.
The yield rose this week as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said interest-rates are still ``fairly low,'' a signal to some traders and investors that the central bank will continue to raise its target rate after six increases since June.
The Fed this week said its forecast for inflation this year is 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent. Its prior estimate was 1.5 percent to 2 percent, as measured on changes in the personal consumption expenditure price index from the final quarter of 2004 to the final quarter of this year.
Pension Reform
Treasuries maturing in 10 years or more were falling before the producer price report on speculation the government will sell 30-year bonds for the first time since 2001 to meet demand from pension funds.
The yield on the 30-year bond last week declined to 4.35 percent, its lowest since June 2003. A declining yield cuts the cost of borrowing for the Treasury and may tempt the government to resume sales of the securities, which it suspended in 2001, according to analysts including Tobias Hartmann at Commerzbank.
``As the relative cost falls it gets more attractive for them to issue'' longer-dated bonds said Hartmann, a fixed-income strategist in London. The Treasury may consider reviving sales of 30-year debt ``not too far down the road.''
U.S. Labor Secretary Elaine Chao is proposing new rules for pension funds that may force Treasury Secretary John Snow to reverse department policy and restart auctions of 30-year bonds.
Many investors concluded the new rules governing defined- benefit pensions will require retirement funds to buy more long- term securities, with the expanded market eventually prompting the Treasury to auction the notes for the first time since 2001.
10-Year Yields
The 10-year yield has gained after Greenspan on Feb. 16 told the Senate Banking Committee that day that rates are ``fairly low'' and the economy is ``expanding at a reasonably good pace.'' He made similar comments to the House Committee on Financial Services yesterday.
Greenspan also said the decline in long-term interest rates after six increases in the Fed's benchmark interest rate was a ``conundrum'' that may turn out to be an aberration.
The comments were an attempt to ``talk down'' bond prices, said Bill Gross at Pacific Investment Management Co., in an interview on the same day. Gross is the manager of the world's biggest bond fund.
``We're back on track for rising short-term rates,'' said Grant Hassell, who helps manage about $2.2 billion of fixed- income investments at AMP Capital Investors New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. Hassell said he is considering shortening the duration of his holdings. Duration is a measure of sensitivity to changes in interest rates.
Ten-year yields may rise to 4.30 percent in the next one to two months, Hassell said.
Fed Moves
The Fed since June has lifted its target for the overnight lending rate between banks to 2.5 percent from an almost 46-year low of 1 percent. Yields on interest-rate futures show investors expect additional quarter-point increases at the next two Fed meetings on March 22 and May 3.
``Greenspan remains upbeat on growth and he continues not to expect inflation to move significantly higher,'' said Bear Stearns & Co. senior economist Conrad DeQuadros in an interview. ``That suggests they want to continue with this gradualist approach to taking away monetary policy accommodation.''
Bear Stearns expects a 4.5 percent federal funds rate by year-end.
After stripping out inflation, 10-year note yields are low on a historical basis, according to Bloomberg calculations. Ten- year Treasury notes yield about 2 percent, compared with an average of 3.45 percent for the past 20 years, after subtracting the year-over-year increase in core consumer prices, which don't include fuel and energy.
`Well Contained'
``Inflation is fairly well contained, and Fed rate hikes will keep it from accelerating,'' Danny Suwanapruti, a strategist in Singapore at Forecast Ltd., a unit of London-based economic- research company 4Cast Ltd, said before the report. ``We have seen yields on the long end come down a bit.''
Forecast expects the Fed to raise interest rates to 3.25 percent by year-end.
Following Greenspan's remarks, 10-year yields have risen this week relative to two-year yields, the first weekly widening this year in the so-called yield spread.
The gap is about 7 basis points wider than a week ago, at 0.87 percentage point, the biggest weekly increase since the five days ending Dec. 3.
The difference shrank to as low as 71 basis points last week, the smallest since April 2001 and compared with 2.37 percentage points a year ago. A shrinking gap is a sign investors expect the Fed's rate increases to curb economic growth and inflation.