Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ieri giornata in cui si sono riaffacciati come venditori i fondi ed è stato testato il supporto dei 60,10 con successo. Si aspetta la release del governo brasiliano sull'entità del nuovo raccolto, anche se c'è molto scetticismo sulla sua attendibilità. Niente di nuovo sul fronte meteorologico, si guarda alla prossima settimana. Il tema del momento tra i traders del caffè è senz'altro la grossa posizione short dei fondi, la più grossa da quando son presi i dati e cioè dal 1983. Qui sotto riporto il commento alla giornata tecnico di nagual, valente trader americano.
Heaviest traded area 6060.
Pivot 6078.Supports 6031/5963.Resistances 6146/6193.
40/20/10 MA 6369/6084/5974.
Another bearish sign from candles today: HANGING MAN. And this is preceded by the SHOOTING STAR of yesterday.Plus the 60 min. chart already looks bad, although the dailies remain positive.
NY coffee slips as speculators return, weather calm
NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - CSCE coffee futures closed
lower on Tuesday as commodity funds and other speculators
returned as sellers and a recent rally stalled as weather
forecasts for top producer Brazil showed no frost concerns,
dealers said.
"There was some scale-down buying from European roasters,
but it didn't stem the decline. The weather maps are OK for now
and the funds have the upper hand to press the market," said a
commission house broker.
The benchmark September arabica coffee <KCU3> ended down
0.10 cent at 61 cents a lb, with a 60.10-61.25 cents range.
Spot July coffee <KCN3> settled 0.10 cent lower at 58.80
cents a lb while the back months settled unchanged to 0.10 cent
lower.
Traders continued to talk about the record short position
held by commodity funds shown in Friday's Commitment of Traders
(COT) report by the CFTC.
"Looking at the data back to 1983, this is the largest
speculative net short position for the funds and is a record 43
percent of open interest," said Judy Ganes, commodity
specialist with J. Ganes Consulting LLC.
Brokers fear that this record short position could create a
sharp upward spike in prices if a frost scare hits the world's
No.1 coffee grower, Brazil.
In their latest weather advisory for Brazil, Meteorlogix,
formerly Weather Services, said a high pressure system was
building into central Argentina on July 11.
Traders are anticipating the second government estimate of
top grower Brazil's 2003/04 crop due out later this week.
Dealers suggested the Brazil data could come in as low as
25 million 60-kg bags, but the industry appears to doubt it.
"Brazil's numbers for their coffee crops have lost
credibility the last 4 or 5 years" said one dealer, adding that
everyone takes Brazil's official numbers and adds 30 percent.
In other news, a specialty coffee from El Salvador broke an
international price record in an Internet auction Tuesday when
a bidder paid $14.06 per lb.
Tuesday's estimated volume edged up to 7,451 lots against
Monday's 7,354 contract pace.
Technicians pegged support for September at 60.10 cents and
resistance at 62.30 cents.
Heaviest traded area 6060.
Pivot 6078.Supports 6031/5963.Resistances 6146/6193.
40/20/10 MA 6369/6084/5974.
Another bearish sign from candles today: HANGING MAN. And this is preceded by the SHOOTING STAR of yesterday.Plus the 60 min. chart already looks bad, although the dailies remain positive.
NY coffee slips as speculators return, weather calm
NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - CSCE coffee futures closed
lower on Tuesday as commodity funds and other speculators
returned as sellers and a recent rally stalled as weather
forecasts for top producer Brazil showed no frost concerns,
dealers said.
"There was some scale-down buying from European roasters,
but it didn't stem the decline. The weather maps are OK for now
and the funds have the upper hand to press the market," said a
commission house broker.
The benchmark September arabica coffee <KCU3> ended down
0.10 cent at 61 cents a lb, with a 60.10-61.25 cents range.
Spot July coffee <KCN3> settled 0.10 cent lower at 58.80
cents a lb while the back months settled unchanged to 0.10 cent
lower.
Traders continued to talk about the record short position
held by commodity funds shown in Friday's Commitment of Traders
(COT) report by the CFTC.
"Looking at the data back to 1983, this is the largest
speculative net short position for the funds and is a record 43
percent of open interest," said Judy Ganes, commodity
specialist with J. Ganes Consulting LLC.
Brokers fear that this record short position could create a
sharp upward spike in prices if a frost scare hits the world's
No.1 coffee grower, Brazil.
In their latest weather advisory for Brazil, Meteorlogix,
formerly Weather Services, said a high pressure system was
building into central Argentina on July 11.
Traders are anticipating the second government estimate of
top grower Brazil's 2003/04 crop due out later this week.
Dealers suggested the Brazil data could come in as low as
25 million 60-kg bags, but the industry appears to doubt it.
"Brazil's numbers for their coffee crops have lost
credibility the last 4 or 5 years" said one dealer, adding that
everyone takes Brazil's official numbers and adds 30 percent.
In other news, a specialty coffee from El Salvador broke an
international price record in an Internet auction Tuesday when
a bidder paid $14.06 per lb.
Tuesday's estimated volume edged up to 7,451 lots against
Monday's 7,354 contract pace.
Technicians pegged support for September at 60.10 cents and
resistance at 62.30 cents.
