Commodities KC Arabica Coffee C (3 lettori)

[Fleursdumal]

altro che balla di caffè gengis , ti sbolognerebbero 37500 libbre di caffè arabica cioè circa 250 bags , sacchi da 60 kg, in più dovresti affittare un TIR per andarteli a prendere nel vicino porto di Brema
scherzi a parte se dovesse accadere che ti dimentichi un long aperto , il broker inizierà romperti qualche giorno prima del first notice day per fartelo chiudere o rollare , se hai uno short puoi prendertela più comoda e ricoprirti oltre il FND anche se rischi di trovarti nelle secche di un future ormai quasi morto. Sta cosa vale per tutte le materie prime

 

[Fleursdumal]

aggiornamento sull'operatività con le opzioni: ricomprata per un tozzo di pane la put57,5 venduta suo tempo, per un incasso netto finale di 1cent ,
venduta giusto per fare qualcosa una put 62,5 agosto per 1,25cents , a mio favore la scadenza vicina

 

[Fleursdumal]

I due temi che tengono banco sul mercato del caffè : la posizione record short dei funds e la possibilità che intervengano gelate sulle coltivazioni brasiliane
Riporto qui sotto un importante contributo di TaiPan con le date delle più dannose gelate avvenute nella storia recente in Brasile e la spiegazione che a causa del terribile frost del 1975 che distrusse più di metà del raccolto, le piantagioni furono spostate più vicino all'equatore, fatto che cmq non le salvò nel '94 .

Here is a historical record of Brazilian Frosts. Looks like the majority happen in July/August.

DATE INTENSITY
July 14, 1882 Severe
July 16, 1894 Severe
July 25, 1895 Severe
July 5, 1898 Severe
June 18, 1899 Moderate
August 19, 1902 Devastating
August 12, 1904 Severe
July 18, 1910 Moderate
June 23, 1911 Moderate
September 3, 1912 Severe
June 25, 1918 Devastating
June 29, 1931 Moderate
July 14, 1933 Moderate
June 12, 1942 Severe
September 15, 1943 Moderate
July 5, 1953 Severe
August 2, 1955 Severe
July 21, 1957 Severe
July 7, 1962 Moderate
June 22, 1963 Moderate
June 28, 1964 Moderate
August 21, 1965 Moderate
August 6, 1966 Severe
July 11, 1969 Moderate
July 9, 1972 Moderate
July 18, 1975 Devastating
August 15, 1978 Moderate
May 31, 1979 Moderate
July 18, 1981 Severe
June 25, 1994 Severe
July 10, 1994 Severe
July 14, 2000 Moderate
July 17, 2000 Moderate


The reason that the frosts are less frequent since 1975 is due to the fact that they moved alot of coffee production closer to the equator after the " black frost " in 75' killed half the crop. This was somewhat effective but didn't save them in 94'.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Il salto a 64 mi ha permesso di ricomprare a 0,20 ciò che avevo venduto a 1,25cents, con questo colpo fortunato porto a 2 cents il bottino sulle option agosto che scadono venerdì , se ritraccia con un pò di forza cercherò di rivendere la stessa put62,5 e portarla a scadenza, altrimenti si passa alla scadenze settembre

 

[Fleursdumal]

Dopo un'apertura forte in gapup a 64,25 è iniziata un violento sell-off da parte dei locals per prese di profitto e dei produttori per motivi di hedge. La lunga candela nera prospetta il test dei 60 e se rotto , dei minimi di qualche settimana fa , che per come la vedo io , sono ulteriori buone occasioni per andare long


10 July2003
Total volume 12809 lots est.
Heaviest traded area 6190.
Pivot 6240 and support 6055/5945. Resistances 6350/6535.
40/20/10 MA 6259/6111/6191.

Real bad performance today by coffee. Volume, triple than yesterday's rally, which tells a lot( supply really present in today's action).
Cycles wise I had a daily high one around July 8th, but since we had a day off (July 4th) I moved it one day to July 9th. Well, tomorrow or in the coming days we'll know the confirmation of this cycle when we close below 6130.
The next daily cycle should be a low one around July 21st.

In candles we have a BEARISH ENGULFING pattern. And we have a potential DOUBLE TOP(6420/6425). Once we close below 6100(last reaction low) at least 2 consecutive days , this doble top will be confirmed and the minimum target would be 320/325 points south of 6100 or 5880/5875 which coincides with the retest of the low at 5790 on June 20th.

I am bearish now, short term, with that as a minimum target.

On weekly angles drawn upwards from Oct/2001 we have support at 5788 and resistances at 6231/6527.

Fundamentally, there is nothing of weather related news that could push this market upwards and the Minas Gerais production reports is lower but I don't think people in the coffee industry pay too much attention to Brazilian reports especially when they are supposed to be bullish. I say this based on too many years of past experiences with these reports.
But heck, it is crazy coffee and who knows.!!!!

Nagual!






NY coffee sinks as producers and trade sell early

NEW YORK, July 10 (Reuters) - CSCE coffee futures closed
weak and well off their early highs Thursday, as the trade and
producers aggressively sold a stronger-than-expected opening,
traders said.
Coffee futures were expected to open around 0.30 cent
higher Thursday, but when prices bulged up 0.85 cent to 64.25
cents, traders seized the opportunity.
"The trade took profits on recent longs and some producers
used the uptick to get some hedges on. We traded nearly 5,000
lots by 10 o'clock, but only 12,000 for the whole session,"
said one commission house broker.
The benchmark September arabica coffee <KCU3> closed down
1.75 cents at 61.65 cents a lb, near the low of a 61.30-64.25
cent range.
Spot July coffee <KCN3> settled at 60 cents, down 1.60
cents. July 21 is last trade day for this contract.
Friday is the last trade day for the August options but
traders don't expect it to be much of a market influence.
"I don't expect the Auggie (August) options to do much
tomorrow," said one trader.
The back months ended 1.45 to 1.65 cent lower.
Operators went home bearish Thursday, with some looking for
carry-over selling Friday.
"People are looking for a test of 60.10 on September," said
one broker, referring to the low of last week.
Though the height of the Brazilian frost season is still
ahead, bullish traders were unable to find any cold airmasses
headed for the coffee belt.
Brazilian coffee areas are expected to remain frost-free
for the next two weeks, though a cold front was bringing
showers to the southeast on Thursday, local private forecaster
Somar said.
"No risk of coffee frost is seen until at least July 25 and
coffee farms in Parana and southeast Sao Paulo state would be
wetter," according to Somar's Celso Oliveira,
Winter officially started in Brazil on June 21 and extends
to September 23. July is the highest risk month for coffee
frosts, which would mainly affect the 2004/05 crop.
Technicians saw support for September at 61.50 and 61 cents
and resistance in the 62.20/30 area.





Sao Paulo, July 10 (OsterDowJones) - The latest coffee crop surveys by
Brazilian cooperatives in the key-producing state of Minas Gerais reveal 2003-
04 production (July-June) will be around 10% lower than previously expected,
coop officials said Thursday.
The results contradict the findings of the government's official survey,
published last week, in which production forecasts for the region were
actually raised.
According to the provisional results of a survey conducted by Cooxupe, the
world's largest coffee cooperative, output in its area of operation will total
approximately 3.52 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2003-04 season, down 55% on
the 7.75 million bags produced last year and around 12% lower than the 3.99
million bags predicted in March.
"We are still finalizing the survey but the results clearly show the
beans were much smaller than expected due to the drought last year," said
Joaquim Goulart de Andrade, head agronomist at the Cooxupe coop, based in
southern Minas Gerais.
Newer plants had fared better in the dry conditions late last year than
the older plants, he said. But the drought, combined with a natural decline
in output after a big crop and a lack of investment in crop care, meant
smaller farmers are harvesting as little as 35% of that produced last year,
he added.
The official results of the field surveys across the southern and cerrado
regions of Minas Geras, as well as northwestern Sao Paulo, will be officially
released on July 17, he said.
The Cooparaiso cooperative, also based in southern Minas Gerais, had
similar findings from a recent survey.
According to Cooparaiso Head Agronomist Marcelo Almeida, a survey
conducted last week showed production was 8% to 10% lower than previously
forecast with trees carrying fewer beans than expected.
Output in the coop's region of operation is expected to reach 1.104
million bags, down 62% on the 2.88 million bags produced last year. In
December, output had been pegged at 1.19 million bags.
Almeida cited the lack of rain during the flowering last year as the key
factor in the latest downward revision.
He added that the hot, dry weather of the last 30 days was also beginning
to concern farmers.
"The coffee plants will start to suffer if we don't have rain in the next
15-20 days," he said.
The Agriculture Ministry's National Supply Corp., or Conab, surprised
many local coffee leaders by marginally raising its forecast for the current
crop to 27.86 million to 30.09 million bags last year, despite widespread
farmer talk of heavier-than-expected crop losses.
The Conab estimate for the state of Minas Gerais was boosted to 11.75
million to 12.96 million bags from 11.43 million to 12.23 million forecast in
December.
Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer and exporter

 

[Fleursdumal]

Si fa più pressante la ricopertura del fondi, i prezzi però non stanno andando molto sù perchè contestualmente i commercials stanno vendendo i loro long e i produttori sono in vendita anche se aspettano prezzi più alti per dare il grosso. Inoltre dal fronte meteorologico niente nuove e temperature nella norma stagionale . In apertura puntata sui 61 che hanno resistito l'ennesima volta e poi ultimi minuti concitati a causa delle ricoperture dei fondi con chiusura attorno ai 63.

Total volume 9644 lots est.
Heaviest traded area 6210.
Pivot 6246 and supports 6162/6016 and resistances 6392/6476.
40/20/10 MA 6238/6108/6231.

Good action today. The market gapped a little on its way down(6125 open) and once it closed the gap and surmount unchange(6190) that was a good sign to be long.
The area 6100, held pretty well and now we have 3 lows at 6100 which makes it a potential triple bottom for at least 325 points north of 6425.
Besides we have the Inverted H/S, and price closing on the neck around 6425/6450. As commented last time the breaking of this neck could lead to a rally of 575 points north of this area or around the 7000 area.

So we have signals in the 60 min., daily and weekly to be long.
We need more volume on these rallies to really see its full potential.
No confirmation on that high cycle at 6425 yet. So we might see a better high by or around July 21st.

Nagual!

NY coffee retreats, fund short-covering peters out

NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) - CSCE coffee futures closed
lower Thursday as short-covering by heavily short commodity
funds was largely absent and long-liquidation and local and
trade selling sent prices to their lows, dealers said.
"The market tried to build on Wednesday's advance but
profit-taking and other selling ahead of the long weekend
weighed on prices. Locals and trade were best sellers on the
day to the low at 62.25," said a broker at a major
institution.
The key September arabica coffee <KCU3> finished 1.15 cents
lower at 62.55 cents a lb, near the bottom of a 62.25-64.20
cents range.
Spot July coffee <KCN3> settled 1 cent easier to 60.50
cents a lb and the back months ended 0.50-1.15 cents easier.
In fundamental news, Brazil, the world's largest coffee
producer and exporter, edged up its forecast for the 2003/04
(July/June) crop due to recent good crop weather, but output
will still be sharply down from last year's record harvest.
Late Wednesday the government's forecast was revised to
27.85 million to 30.08 million 60-kg bags, from 27.7 million to
29.7 million bags seen in December.
The latest projection reflects a drop of 37 to 42 percent
from the record 2002/03 crop, which was revised upward to 48.48
million bags from 47.27 million bags previously.
The reaction from traders and analysts was mixed with
several noting that a lower estimate would have been doubted by
the trade.
"Brazil doesn't have a lot of credibility when it comes to
production estimates. Everybody tends to take the number and
add something to it," said one roaster.
With the height of the Brazilian frost scare season still
ahead of the market, traders continue to pay close attention to
weather forecasts for the coffee belt.
Independent weather forecasters Meteorlogix, sees dry
conditions and near to above normal temperatures the next seven
days for Brazil's coffee belt.
The CFTC said its weekly Commitments of Traders (COT)
report for the week ending July 1 will be issued one day later
than usual on Monday, July 7.
Technicians kept support for September at 61 cents and
resistance at 65.10 cents.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Invece di vendere una put stavolta ho preso un contratto a 62 dopo averlo rincorso da più in basso. Per oggi: se sale a tentare di superare i 64 ci vendo sopra una call65 settembre , se non ce la fa e si mostra da subito debole due possibili alternative : mettere uno stop sul contratto a 62,20 e cercare nuovi punti di entrata sui soliti 61 e 60 , oppure venderci sopra una call62,5 sep

 

[Fleursdumal]

BEAN BELT: From humble origins in Africa, coffee cultivation wandered east and west, eventually forming a belt roughly bounded by the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.

Growing regions typically offer moderate sunshine and rain, steady temperatures around 70ºF (20ºC), and rich, porous soil. In return the delicate tree yields beans that are an economic mainstay for dozens of countries and about 25 million people—and, among natural commodities, have a monetary value surpassed only by oil. Of the two main coffee trees, arabicas beget the better beans—and about 70 percent of the harvest. The harsher beans of the hardier robusta tree account for about 30 percent.






Top Ten Coffee-Producing Countries
(based on the number of 132-pound [60-kilogram] bags produced during the 1997-98 crop year, according to the U.S. National Coffee Association)

Brazil (22.5 million bags)
After arriving from French Guiana in the early 18th century, coffee quickly spread and thrived in Brazil. Today Brazil is responsible for about a third of all coffee production, making it by far the heavyweight champion of the coffee-producing world. Though many connoisseurs believe that Brazil’s emphasis on quantity takes a toll on quality, many also praise the country’s finer varieties. Brazil is the only high-volume producer subject to frost. The devastating 1975 frost, in particular, was a boon to other coffee-growing countries. Two 1994 frosts raised prices worldwide. Notable Beans: Bahia, Bourbon Santos

TOP

Colombia (10.5 million bags)
Colombia is the only South American country with both Atlantic and Pacific ports—an invaluable aid to shipping. The crop’s economic importance is such that all cars entering Colombia are sprayed for harmful bacteria. Colombia’s coffee grows in the moist, temperate foothills of the Andes, where the combination of high altitude and moist climate makes for an especially mild cup. Notable Beans: Medellin, Supremo, Bogotá

TOP

Indonesia (6.7 million bags)
The Dutch unwittingly gave coffee a nickname in the late 17th century, when they began the first successful European coffee plantation on their island colony of Java (now part of Indonesia). Top-grade arabicas are still produced on Java as well as on Sumatra, Sulawesi, and Flores, but the Indonesian archipelago is most notable as the world’s largest producer of robusta beans. Notable Beans: Java, Sumatra, Sulawesi (Celebes)

TOP

Vietnam (5.8 million bags)
French missionaries first brought coffee to Vietnam in the mid-1860s, but production remained negligible as late as 1980. In the 1990s, however, Vietnamese coffee production has been ratcheted up at a furious pace. At least one trader worries that the industry is growing too quickly for its own good. “The crop’s growing so fast that there’s not an equivalent growth in processing, so you’re looking at quality problems,” he said from Daklak, Vietnam’s main coffee-growing region. Notable Beans: Vietnam specializes in robusta production.

TOP

Mexico (5 million bags)
Coffee came to Mexico from Antilles at the end of the 18th century, but was not exported in great quantities until the 1870s. Today approximately 100,000 small farms generate most Mexican coffee, and most of the beans come from the south. Mexico is the largest source of U.S. coffee imports. Notable Beans: Altura, Liquidambar MS, Pluma Coixtepec

TOP

Ethiopia (3.8 million bags)
The natural home of the arabica tree and the setting for most of coffee’s origin legends, Ethiopia is Africa’s top arabica exporter and leads the continent in domestic consumption. About 12 million Ethiopians make their living from coffee, whose name is said to be a derivation of “Kaffa,” the name of an Ethiopian province. Notable Beans: Harrar, Sidamo, Yirgacheffe

TOP

India (3.8 million bags)
According to legend, India is the birthplace of coffee cultivation east of Arabia. Today coffee production is under the strict control of the Indian Coffee Board, which some say reduces economic incentive and thereby lowers quality. Notable Beans: Mysore, Monsooned Malabar

TOP

Guatemala (3.5 million bags)
German immigrants initiated serious coffee cultivation in Guatemala in the 19th century. Today the country’s high-grown beans, particularly those grown on the southern volcanic slopes, are among the world’s best. Notable Beans: Atitlan, Huehuetenango

TOP

Côte d’Ivoire (3.3 million bags)
In the mid-1990s Côte d’Ivoire was the number five coffee producer and second largest robusta producer. Why the decline? Some speculate that an emphasis on volume and a lack of investment and planning have lowered quality and per-acre productivity. Today most exports end up as mass-market coffee in Europe, especially France and Italy. Notable Bean: Côte d’Ivoire specializes in robusta production.

TOP

Uganda (3 million bags)
Though Uganda grows precious little arabica, it is a key producer of robusta. That humble, hardy bean accounts for 75 percent of the country’s export revenue and provides employment for 80 percent of all rural workers. Efforts to diversify aside, Uganda is likely to remain beholden to the bean for the foreseeable future. Notable Bean: Bugisu

 

[Fleursdumal]

venduta una call65 a 2,50 , ora sono coperto in caso di ribassi fino a 59,5, sarà un difetto ma su sto mercato del caffè non riesco ad immaginare grosse sparate al rialzo : a me va bene che oscilli in 5-10 cents

 

[Fleursdumal]

nonostante i ladroni del pit delle opzioni del caffè, son riuscito a reimpostare le mie posizioni: coperta la call65 a 1cent con guadagno di 1,5cent e venduta call62,5 a 2,2 cents , quindi ora il mio long a 62 è coperto sino a 58,3. In prospettiva di un movimento ulteriore verso il basso metto in preventivo la vendita di una put57,5 su settembre o 60 su una scadenza più lontana