Commodities KC Arabica Coffee C
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
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Si è arrivati a un massimo di 102,5 cents ma ancora nessuna chiusura daily sopra 100 ( non si è mai contenti nevvero 
), il COT mostra i fondi net long di 29000 contratti, ci si aspettava un +35k o 40k , il chè può essere positivo visto che ci sono ancora molte cartucce da sparare.
Però a guardare il grafico in continuos monthly e i tentennamenti su quota 100, viene un pò di inquietudine quindi meglio iniziare a coprirsi in scaleup con degli short sul caffè Robusta quotato al Liffe
), il COT mostra i fondi net long di 29000 contratti, ci si aspettava un +35k o 40k , il chè può essere positivo visto che ci sono ancora molte cartucce da sparare.Però a guardare il grafico in continuos monthly e i tentennamenti su quota 100, viene un pò di inquietudine quindi meglio iniziare a coprirsi in scaleup con degli short sul caffè Robusta quotato al Liffe
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Una appata giusto per riferire del mio cambiamento di sentiment ( ) sul glorioso coffee. Il raccolto brasiliano sarà probabilmente più ampio delle ultime stime del governo brasiliano 41,6ml bags , è prassi abituale quella di cercare di tener basse le stime sul raccolto per tenere un pò più sù il prezzo del caffè. Inoltre il nuovo raccolto vietnamita sta per essere imbarcato nelle prossime settimane e andrà a rinpinguare gli stocks europei provati dall'ultima siccità .
l' impetuoso rialzo di questa settimana è stato guidato dai soliti funds che si son ricoperti e messi long, sulla scia dei nuovi massimi del CRB . Oggi però cap messo dalle vendite degli origins e da fattori tecnici legati alle scadenze sulle options
) sul glorioso coffee. Il raccolto brasiliano sarà probabilmente più ampio delle ultime stime del governo brasiliano 41,6ml bags , è prassi abituale quella di cercare di tener basse le stime sul raccolto per tenere un pò più sù il prezzo del caffè. Inoltre il nuovo raccolto vietnamita sta per essere imbarcato nelle prossime settimane e andrà a rinpinguare gli stocks europei provati dall'ultima siccità .l' impetuoso rialzo di questa settimana è stato guidato dai soliti funds che si son ricoperti e messi long, sulla scia dei nuovi massimi del CRB . Oggi però cap messo dalle vendite degli origins e da fattori tecnici legati alle scadenze sulle options
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Il London Robusta Coffee leads e venerdì ha collassato portandosi dietro il NY Coffee che aveva tentato una finta al rialzo. La pressione congiunta degli origins e i funds è stata dirompente : ora la struttura del backwardation si è deteriorata e affiora lievemente a Londra nella seconda parte di scadenze 2007
mantengo short di Coffee C, uno short robusta jan07 e un long robusta mar07
il commento di sucden, casa di brokeraggio storicamente attiva sul LIFFE
Fund selling was Joined with aggressive Origin fixing to set London prices reeling today as the a.m. recorded $50 losses and this was expanded to
a $100 loss by the close as more Fund liquidation piled in. Good Industry price fixing into the weakness particularly during the p.m. but following
today's action any upside correction is likely to be met with further liquidation / Origin selling.
New York had a huge day today with 42.5 K volume as Fund liquidation also pressured prices. With Monday's FND the Dec/Mar switch was very
active where it slipped to -500 at its nadir. Some Industry buying also noted but as with London the close - to say the least is not a good one - and
a sustainable rally from here looks rather unlikely in the short term.
mantengo short di Coffee C, uno short robusta jan07 e un long robusta mar07
il commento di sucden, casa di brokeraggio storicamente attiva sul LIFFE
Fund selling was Joined with aggressive Origin fixing to set London prices reeling today as the a.m. recorded $50 losses and this was expanded to
a $100 loss by the close as more Fund liquidation piled in. Good Industry price fixing into the weakness particularly during the p.m. but following
today's action any upside correction is likely to be met with further liquidation / Origin selling.
New York had a huge day today with 42.5 K volume as Fund liquidation also pressured prices. With Monday's FND the Dec/Mar switch was very
active where it slipped to -500 at its nadir. Some Industry buying also noted but as with London the close - to say the least is not a good one - and
a sustainable rally from here looks rather unlikely in the short term.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
report dell'USDA sui prodotti tropicali dicembre 2006, dedicato al caffè
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Uscito dallo short di KC , i funds son tornati forti compratori su notizie di fondamentali e scorte tight , tra pochi giorni dovrebbero uscire nuove stime sul raccolto brasilero che per il 48% è gia stato venduto quindi meglio stare alla finestra per ora su NY
mantengo lo spread sul Robusta londinese
DJ Arabica Coffee Prices Seen Above $1.50/Lb In 1Q 2007
6:34 AM, December 8, 2006
HO CHI MINH CITY (Dow Jones)--International arabica coffee prices are
expected to rise above $1.50 per pound during the first quarter of 2007, as the
world demand-supply balance in green coffee continues to be tight, a senior
analyst said Friday.
Only if a sharply lower 2007-08 harvest fails to materialize in the world's
largest producer Brazil, contrary to current trade and industry expectations,
would prices rise less in coming months, said Judith Ganes-Chase of J. Ganes
Consulting.
"In the first quarter of 2007, we should be able to see levels over $1.50 per
pound, and if you ask me if I can see this market potentially over $2, the
answer is absolutely yes," Ganes-Chase told Dow Jones Newswires at the end of
the Asia Coffee Outlook 2006 conference.
She said the price forecast is based on fundamentals of continuing tight
world stocks of green coffee and that preliminary forecasts for production in
the 2007-08 Brazil harvest are confirmed at about 32 million to 33 million
60-kilogram bags.
Industry and trade officials in Brazil see the Brazilian 2007-08 harvest
sharply lower after bad weather has resulted in poor flowering, but an official
forecast won't be released until later this month.
-By Maja Wallengren, Dow Jones Newswires; [email protected]
DJ World Green Coffee Stocks At Low Of 35M To 37M Bags - ICO
5:36 AM, December 8, 2006
04:56 120806
HO CHI MINH CITY (Dow Jones)--Current world stocks of green coffee in
importing and producing countries continue to be near their lowest level in
history at between 35 million and 37 million 60-kilogram bags, the
International Coffee Organization said Friday.
"In producing and importing countries at the moment, there is a total of
about 35 to 37 million bags. It's no more than that, but it could be a lot
less," the ICO's executive director, Nestor Osorio, told Dow Jones Newswires,
speaking at the end of the Asia Coffee Outlook 2006 conference.
"Whether it's 35 or 37, this is barely the level of three months of
consumption, which historically has not been considered stocks but is seen as
stock maneuver, so the supply situation continues to be very tight," Osorio
said.
He said both international arabica and robusta coffee prices are expected to
continue to hang on to gains from the most recent rally, and it's expected that
both arabica prices in New York and robusta prices in London will rise further
in early 2007.
But Osorio declined to say where the ICO sees international prices in the
short and medium term, arguing the official crop forecast for the next 2007-08
harvest in the world's largest producer Brazil must be known before a new price
forecast can be issued.
Industry and trade officials in Brazil see the Brazilian 2007-08 harvest
sharply lower after bad weather has resulted in poor flowering, but an official
forecast won't be released by the country's agricultural authorities until
later this month.
mantengo lo spread sul Robusta londinese
DJ Arabica Coffee Prices Seen Above $1.50/Lb In 1Q 2007
6:34 AM, December 8, 2006
HO CHI MINH CITY (Dow Jones)--International arabica coffee prices are
expected to rise above $1.50 per pound during the first quarter of 2007, as the
world demand-supply balance in green coffee continues to be tight, a senior
analyst said Friday.
Only if a sharply lower 2007-08 harvest fails to materialize in the world's
largest producer Brazil, contrary to current trade and industry expectations,
would prices rise less in coming months, said Judith Ganes-Chase of J. Ganes
Consulting.
"In the first quarter of 2007, we should be able to see levels over $1.50 per
pound, and if you ask me if I can see this market potentially over $2, the
answer is absolutely yes," Ganes-Chase told Dow Jones Newswires at the end of
the Asia Coffee Outlook 2006 conference.
She said the price forecast is based on fundamentals of continuing tight
world stocks of green coffee and that preliminary forecasts for production in
the 2007-08 Brazil harvest are confirmed at about 32 million to 33 million
60-kilogram bags.
Industry and trade officials in Brazil see the Brazilian 2007-08 harvest
sharply lower after bad weather has resulted in poor flowering, but an official
forecast won't be released until later this month.
-By Maja Wallengren, Dow Jones Newswires; [email protected]
DJ World Green Coffee Stocks At Low Of 35M To 37M Bags - ICO
5:36 AM, December 8, 2006
04:56 120806
HO CHI MINH CITY (Dow Jones)--Current world stocks of green coffee in
importing and producing countries continue to be near their lowest level in
history at between 35 million and 37 million 60-kilogram bags, the
International Coffee Organization said Friday.
"In producing and importing countries at the moment, there is a total of
about 35 to 37 million bags. It's no more than that, but it could be a lot
less," the ICO's executive director, Nestor Osorio, told Dow Jones Newswires,
speaking at the end of the Asia Coffee Outlook 2006 conference.
"Whether it's 35 or 37, this is barely the level of three months of
consumption, which historically has not been considered stocks but is seen as
stock maneuver, so the supply situation continues to be very tight," Osorio
said.
He said both international arabica and robusta coffee prices are expected to
continue to hang on to gains from the most recent rally, and it's expected that
both arabica prices in New York and robusta prices in London will rise further
in early 2007.
But Osorio declined to say where the ICO sees international prices in the
short and medium term, arguing the official crop forecast for the next 2007-08
harvest in the world's largest producer Brazil must be known before a new price
forecast can be issued.
Industry and trade officials in Brazil see the Brazilian 2007-08 harvest
sharply lower after bad weather has resulted in poor flowering, but an official
forecast won't be released by the country's agricultural authorities until
later this month.
Fleursdumal
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Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
report di Morgan Stanley su caffè e cacao , che si avventura spericolatamente anche sul lungo termine
DJ Morgan Stanley: Coffee May Heat Up, Cocoa Cool In '07-08
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Coffee futures should heat up next year due to rising global demand, but
cocoa could cool due to rising supplies and lower-cost substitutions, Morgan
Stanley (MS) said in a research report Monday.
"Coffee demand is expected to grow at an above-trend rate globally,
benefiting from growing income in the developing world and proliferation of the
'coffee shop culture,'" said the report.
For instance, the number of Starbucks stores - which use only Arabica beans -
has more than doubled to 12,000 in four years, pointed out Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, growth in supplies should be mitigated by diversification into
higher-quality coffee production and alternative crops. Against this backdrop,
Morgan Stanley said it looks for Nybot coffee prices to rise to $1.37 a pound
in the 2007-08 marketing year, before eventually easing to $1.15 a pound in
2010-11.
In the case of cocoa, demand growth is expected by Morgan Stanley due to
rising per-capita income in the developing world. In fact, cocoa demand is more
than seven times more sensitive to income than price, according to research by
the International Cocoa Organization.
"However, the ability to substitute lower-cost, non-cocoa ingredients in
chocolate production will contain overall demand growth," Morgan Stanley wrote.
"In addition, higher yields and acreage will result in above-average supply
growth, increasing the global stock-to-grinding ratio."
Therefore, Morgan Stanley said it looks for Nybot cocoa prices to decline to
$1,441 a metric ton in the 2007-08 marketing year and eventually fall to $1,345
in 2009-10, before rebounding slightly in 2010-11
The report noted that the European Union, the world's largest chocolate
consumer, allowed chocolate to be made with up to 5% of non-cocoa vegetable
fats in place of cocoa butter in August 2003. There is no indication that the
U.S. intends to relax its restrictions on use of non-cocoa butters. Still, said
Morgan Stanley, "the fact that there was little consumer backlash from the move
in the E.U. suggests that upside potential for cocoa prices is limited with
vegetable fats pricing below that of cocoa butter."
Continued growth in supply is expected from Africa, and there is potential
for the same in South Asia, said Morgan Stanley.
"Since 1990, cocoa area harvested has increased by 23%," said Morgan Stanley.
"Over the same period, yields have grown by 16%, with much of the growth
observes in the last 10 years. Through our forecast horizon, we anticipate that
both acreage and yields will continue to grow, supporting production growth."
Morgan Stanley said an upside risk to its forecasts stems from the 2008
Olympics in China, which could encourage consumption of both cocoa and coffee
in Asia. A weakening U.S. dollar and "increased competition for resources from
other crops also present upside risk," said Morgan Stanley.
"Downside risk stems from an underestimation of yield growth and a slowing in
the global economy."
DJ Morgan Stanley: Coffee May Heat Up, Cocoa Cool In '07-08
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Coffee futures should heat up next year due to rising global demand, but
cocoa could cool due to rising supplies and lower-cost substitutions, Morgan
Stanley (MS) said in a research report Monday.
"Coffee demand is expected to grow at an above-trend rate globally,
benefiting from growing income in the developing world and proliferation of the
'coffee shop culture,'" said the report.
For instance, the number of Starbucks stores - which use only Arabica beans -
has more than doubled to 12,000 in four years, pointed out Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, growth in supplies should be mitigated by diversification into
higher-quality coffee production and alternative crops. Against this backdrop,
Morgan Stanley said it looks for Nybot coffee prices to rise to $1.37 a pound
in the 2007-08 marketing year, before eventually easing to $1.15 a pound in
2010-11.
In the case of cocoa, demand growth is expected by Morgan Stanley due to
rising per-capita income in the developing world. In fact, cocoa demand is more
than seven times more sensitive to income than price, according to research by
the International Cocoa Organization.
"However, the ability to substitute lower-cost, non-cocoa ingredients in
chocolate production will contain overall demand growth," Morgan Stanley wrote.
"In addition, higher yields and acreage will result in above-average supply
growth, increasing the global stock-to-grinding ratio."
Therefore, Morgan Stanley said it looks for Nybot cocoa prices to decline to
$1,441 a metric ton in the 2007-08 marketing year and eventually fall to $1,345
in 2009-10, before rebounding slightly in 2010-11
The report noted that the European Union, the world's largest chocolate
consumer, allowed chocolate to be made with up to 5% of non-cocoa vegetable
fats in place of cocoa butter in August 2003. There is no indication that the
U.S. intends to relax its restrictions on use of non-cocoa butters. Still, said
Morgan Stanley, "the fact that there was little consumer backlash from the move
in the E.U. suggests that upside potential for cocoa prices is limited with
vegetable fats pricing below that of cocoa butter."
Continued growth in supply is expected from Africa, and there is potential
for the same in South Asia, said Morgan Stanley.
"Since 1990, cocoa area harvested has increased by 23%," said Morgan Stanley.
"Over the same period, yields have grown by 16%, with much of the growth
observes in the last 10 years. Through our forecast horizon, we anticipate that
both acreage and yields will continue to grow, supporting production growth."
Morgan Stanley said an upside risk to its forecasts stems from the 2008
Olympics in China, which could encourage consumption of both cocoa and coffee
in Asia. A weakening U.S. dollar and "increased competition for resources from
other crops also present upside risk," said Morgan Stanley.
"Downside risk stems from an underestimation of yield growth and a slowing in
the global economy."
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
uscito dallo spread F-H7 sul robusta a -20 , resto fuori dal KC : mercato al momento sgusciante in maniera esagerata , oggi in pochi minuti max a 130 e subito dopo precipizio a 124
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
vista la liquidazione di ieri in chiave uscita fondi, crollo azionario brasiliano e valutario del real oggi era una buona occasione di acquisto in apertura
coperto per ora con uno short di Robusta Liffe
coperto per ora con uno short di Robusta Liffe
