Light crude oil ( petrolio US ) (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
questi sono i casi in cui gli analisti si scatenano, ho letto poco fa su un forum americano il report di un gran analist lup mann gran cavalier di Deutch bank che preveggeva il petrolio a 100$ , aspetta che vado a trovarlo :smile:
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ecchilo
The Scotsman 8-2-04
(I stated in here 3 months ago I remained bullish on crude & the entire energy complex. I still am.)
OIL prices could potentially hit $100 per barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank warned yesterday - as the cost of US light crude hit a 21-year record of almost $44.
Adam Sieminski, Deutsche’s global energy strategist, claimed that oil supplies have become so tight in recent weeks that a serious disruption in the Middle East could send prices rocketing to unprecedented heights.
He said: "It is worth asking ourselves - ‘what would happen tomorrow if we lost four million barrels a day, due to some accident?’ Or let’s say Iraq’s two million barrels a day became unavailable. OPEC’s got no spare capacity. And that could be it - $100 per barrel."
Sieminski stressed that this was not a wild claim. "The last time OPEC was at 95-100 per cent capacity was in 1973-74, and again around 1980. And disruptions put prices up by 50 to 100 per cent. (GOOD POINT)
"We’re at $40 already, so a repeat gives you $60-$80 per barrel." Two separate instances of disruption, on this logic, could take the price up a further step to $100. (WE ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO $44 IN NY) ANOTHER GOOD POINT TO PONDER, BUT WAITING TOO LONG TO ACT MAY TURN OUT BEING TRADER DEADLY)
Benchmark US light crude came within a whisker of $44 yesterday, touching $43.92 at its peak. The price sank back to $43.50 by late evening.
The spike came after the US raised its security alert to "high", citing a possible al-Qaeda attack on financial institutions. The announcement was made on Sunday, but yesterday was the first chance for markets to react.
Separately, Russian oil giant Yukos was told by Moscow it will begin investigating the company’s tax payments from 2002 - earlier than before, and a move that could add to its already massive bill.
The news was softened by an announcement from the Russian energy ministry that oil output in the country hit a new post-Soviet high of 9.33 million barrels per day in July. Brent crude, which rose above $40 to a fresh 14-year high of $40.05 on Friday, sank 20 cents to $39.85.
Sieminski said: "Most of the analysts who look at the fundamentals of supply and demand will tell you we’re now at the top [of the oil price]. But as long as the incremental supplies continue to come from countries where availability is an issue, the potential for prices to stay high is, itself, very high."
Market fears will calm down if sabotage or other disruptions do not emerge, and this could see $5 a barrel come out of the price by the end of the year, he estimated. (DO NOT COUNT ON TERRORISTS TO STOP BEING TERRORISTS)
"But, fundamentally, we’ve got to slow down demand growth. And, historically, the only way to make a lot of progress with that is a recession. So if you’re worried about the oil price perhaps you’ve got to ask, which do you prefer?"
The Scotsman 8-2-04
(I stated in here 3 months ago I remained bullish on crude & the entire energy complex. I still am.)
OIL prices could potentially hit $100 per barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank warned yesterday - as the cost of US light crude hit a 21-year record of almost $44.
Adam Sieminski, Deutsche’s global energy strategist, claimed that oil supplies have become so tight in recent weeks that a serious disruption in the Middle East could send prices rocketing to unprecedented heights.
He said: "It is worth asking ourselves - ‘what would happen tomorrow if we lost four million barrels a day, due to some accident?’ Or let’s say Iraq’s two million barrels a day became unavailable. OPEC’s got no spare capacity. And that could be it - $100 per barrel."
Sieminski stressed that this was not a wild claim. "The last time OPEC was at 95-100 per cent capacity was in 1973-74, and again around 1980. And disruptions put prices up by 50 to 100 per cent. (GOOD POINT)
"We’re at $40 already, so a repeat gives you $60-$80 per barrel." Two separate instances of disruption, on this logic, could take the price up a further step to $100. (WE ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO $44 IN NY) ANOTHER GOOD POINT TO PONDER, BUT WAITING TOO LONG TO ACT MAY TURN OUT BEING TRADER DEADLY)
Benchmark US light crude came within a whisker of $44 yesterday, touching $43.92 at its peak. The price sank back to $43.50 by late evening.
The spike came after the US raised its security alert to "high", citing a possible al-Qaeda attack on financial institutions. The announcement was made on Sunday, but yesterday was the first chance for markets to react.
Separately, Russian oil giant Yukos was told by Moscow it will begin investigating the company’s tax payments from 2002 - earlier than before, and a move that could add to its already massive bill.
The news was softened by an announcement from the Russian energy ministry that oil output in the country hit a new post-Soviet high of 9.33 million barrels per day in July. Brent crude, which rose above $40 to a fresh 14-year high of $40.05 on Friday, sank 20 cents to $39.85.
Sieminski said: "Most of the analysts who look at the fundamentals of supply and demand will tell you we’re now at the top [of the oil price]. But as long as the incremental supplies continue to come from countries where availability is an issue, the potential for prices to stay high is, itself, very high."
Market fears will calm down if sabotage or other disruptions do not emerge, and this could see $5 a barrel come out of the price by the end of the year, he estimated. (DO NOT COUNT ON TERRORISTS TO STOP BEING TERRORISTS)
"But, fundamentally, we’ve got to slow down demand growth. And, historically, the only way to make a lot of progress with that is a recession. So if you’re worried about the oil price perhaps you’ve got to ask, which do you prefer?"
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ANALYSIS-Oil eyes $50 -- where will it end?
By Andrew Mitchell
LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - As oil hits fresh highs, bringing $50 crude firmly into view, it will take a sea-change -- a recession, an abnormally mild northern winter or perhaps a change in U.S. President -- to end the rally, analysts say.
Prices have already risen by more than a third this year, hitting a fresh peak on Tuesday at $44.24 a barrel, the highest price in the 21-year history of New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures.
Time and again analysts have called a top to the rally, only for prices to march higher as strong demand leaves the world supply system with no leeway to cope with potential disruption in big producers like Iraq, Russia or Venezuela.
And just as a surprise upsurge in Chinese oil demand has revolutionised the oil market this year, so it will take a sustained economic or political shift to bring down prices now, analysts say.
"Getting down from here will not happen soon and it will not be easy," said energy economist Philip Verlerger in Aspen, Colorado.
"We need to see inventories build up and to see inventories build up we either need a big recession or a really mild winter which will leave us sitting in piles of heating oil."
NO BEARISH NEWS IN SIGHT
Fear of attacks on energy infrastructure by Islamic militants has reinforced oil's rise, encouraging heavy buying from big-money funds who stand to make big profits if prices spike yet higher.
Most producers in the OPEC cartel are already pumping at capacity, so there is no chance of a sudden wash of extra supply to deflate the market. And it will take years for exploration projects viable at today's prices to turn into new production.
"Without any significant bearish news on the horizon and crude demand close to its peak for the year, speculators will have the opportunity to continue to push for new highs in the weeks ahead," said a report by PFC Energy.
It may be that the only way to douse the oil rally will be for prices to rise so high that they turn boom into bust.
So far the jump in energy costs appears to have done little to hurt global economic growth, with China's expansion slowing only slightly and the United States posting solid growth.
But economists warn that oil prices are now approaching the sort of level that will stifle global growth and in turn stunt fuel demand.
"There will be the delayed effect of oil prices on demand. It takes time but it does happen and people forget about it at their peril," said Leo Drollas of the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London.
Allowing for inflation, prices are near the level hit during the 1973 oil embargo and just over half those during the oil price shock that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution. Both those oil shocks sent the world economy into recession.
"While so far the world economy has pretty much shrugged off oil at $40 per barrel, a sustained rise over $50 probably would take oil prices into the range where they would have a noticeable impact on activity," said Barclays Capital in a report.
WILD CARDS
One other wild card that might help lower prices would be a change in U.S. president come November's election.
This is due not so much to Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry's drive to promote alternative energy as because he is seen by some as less likely than incumbent George W. Bush to become embroiled in military action in the Middle East.
"If the U.S. is less likely to go to war over oil, then a lot of this fear premium should disappear," said a European crude oil trader.
But that possibility is still overshadowed by the potential impact of a major supply disruption, even though such an event would quickly be countered by a release in consuming countries' strategic stocks.
Verleger, for example, posits the prospect that Iranian crude exports may be disrupted as part of the fallout from its wrangle with the U.N. over Tehran's nuclear programme.
"All Iran has to do to push prices to $60, $70 or $80 a barrel is announce an export cut to retaliate against any Security Council resolution," Verleger said.
A hypothesis perhaps, but still typical of concerns for oil buyers who see a market stretched to the limit and are prepared to pay up to ensure supplies.
"Getting prices down will need a change in the psychology of the forward buyer," Verleger said. ((Reporting by Andrew Mitchell; editing by Brian Killen; +44 207 542 7646, [email protected]))
By Andrew Mitchell
LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - As oil hits fresh highs, bringing $50 crude firmly into view, it will take a sea-change -- a recession, an abnormally mild northern winter or perhaps a change in U.S. President -- to end the rally, analysts say.
Prices have already risen by more than a third this year, hitting a fresh peak on Tuesday at $44.24 a barrel, the highest price in the 21-year history of New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures.
Time and again analysts have called a top to the rally, only for prices to march higher as strong demand leaves the world supply system with no leeway to cope with potential disruption in big producers like Iraq, Russia or Venezuela.
And just as a surprise upsurge in Chinese oil demand has revolutionised the oil market this year, so it will take a sustained economic or political shift to bring down prices now, analysts say.
"Getting down from here will not happen soon and it will not be easy," said energy economist Philip Verlerger in Aspen, Colorado.
"We need to see inventories build up and to see inventories build up we either need a big recession or a really mild winter which will leave us sitting in piles of heating oil."
NO BEARISH NEWS IN SIGHT
Fear of attacks on energy infrastructure by Islamic militants has reinforced oil's rise, encouraging heavy buying from big-money funds who stand to make big profits if prices spike yet higher.
Most producers in the OPEC cartel are already pumping at capacity, so there is no chance of a sudden wash of extra supply to deflate the market. And it will take years for exploration projects viable at today's prices to turn into new production.
"Without any significant bearish news on the horizon and crude demand close to its peak for the year, speculators will have the opportunity to continue to push for new highs in the weeks ahead," said a report by PFC Energy.
It may be that the only way to douse the oil rally will be for prices to rise so high that they turn boom into bust.
So far the jump in energy costs appears to have done little to hurt global economic growth, with China's expansion slowing only slightly and the United States posting solid growth.
But economists warn that oil prices are now approaching the sort of level that will stifle global growth and in turn stunt fuel demand.
"There will be the delayed effect of oil prices on demand. It takes time but it does happen and people forget about it at their peril," said Leo Drollas of the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London.
Allowing for inflation, prices are near the level hit during the 1973 oil embargo and just over half those during the oil price shock that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution. Both those oil shocks sent the world economy into recession.
"While so far the world economy has pretty much shrugged off oil at $40 per barrel, a sustained rise over $50 probably would take oil prices into the range where they would have a noticeable impact on activity," said Barclays Capital in a report.
WILD CARDS
One other wild card that might help lower prices would be a change in U.S. president come November's election.
This is due not so much to Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry's drive to promote alternative energy as because he is seen by some as less likely than incumbent George W. Bush to become embroiled in military action in the Middle East.
"If the U.S. is less likely to go to war over oil, then a lot of this fear premium should disappear," said a European crude oil trader.
But that possibility is still overshadowed by the potential impact of a major supply disruption, even though such an event would quickly be countered by a release in consuming countries' strategic stocks.
Verleger, for example, posits the prospect that Iranian crude exports may be disrupted as part of the fallout from its wrangle with the U.N. over Tehran's nuclear programme.
"All Iran has to do to push prices to $60, $70 or $80 a barrel is announce an export cut to retaliate against any Security Council resolution," Verleger said.
A hypothesis perhaps, but still typical of concerns for oil buyers who see a market stretched to the limit and are prepared to pay up to ensure supplies.
"Getting prices down will need a change in the psychology of the forward buyer," Verleger said. ((Reporting by Andrew Mitchell; editing by Brian Killen; +44 207 542 7646, [email protected]))
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
fregato interessante articolo a ditro 
3 Agosto 2004 3:07 NEW YORK
Diceva Von Clausewitz che la guerra è la continuazione della politica con altri mezzi. Oggi possiamo dire tranquillamente che la guerra è la continuazione dell'economia con altri mezzi o che l'economia è a sua volta la continuazione della guerra. La guerra in Irak lo dimostra.
Guerra per il petrolio si disse e si dice ancora. E certo il petrolio ha una parte importante dell'orrendo cocktail mediorientale. Ma a guardare dati e statistiche sembra che questa più che una guerra per accaparrarsi le risorse energetiche, sia una guerra per mantenere alti i prezzi. del petrolio. Un maledetto imbroglio. Un imbroglio che si fonda sul mercato. Infatti il mercato del petrolio non è in Medioriente, ma qui, in Occidente. I prezzi non si fanno nei deserti arabi, ma nei supercondizionati grattacieli della City a Londra e di Wall Street, a Manhattan e soprattutto a Houston e a Dallas, Texas.
Facciamo allora il punto sulla questione dei prezzi. Il petrolio era già cresciuto durante la "guerra". Normale. Speculazione fin troppo facile, a vendere sul mercato erano addirittura gli americani, che mentre conquistavano i "pozzi di Saddam" si finanziavano vendendo le loro scorte sul mercato. Ma dopo la conquista i prezzi non scendono, anzi salgono. Salgano fino a $50 a barile. Vacche grasse per le compagnie di petrolio, tutte al rialzo in Borsa e con utili spettacolari. Per far digerire il salatissimo conto sui prodotti petroliferi, benzina in primo luogo, c'è più di una giustificazione: il terrorismo internazionale, che arriva addirittura a colpire gli oleodotti, la mancata ripresa della produzione irachena, e poi, naturalmente, i venali islamici che sfruttano la situazione per rimpinguare le casse dei rispettivi stati e delle famiglie regnanti.
E così si alimenta il conflitto, la "guerra fra civiltà", fra la civiltà dell' automobile utilitaria e quella delle limousine degli sceicchi. Come dire si butta benzina sul fuoco sull'odio. Peccato che le cose non stiano proprio così.
Lunedi' 2 agosto il prezzo del petrolio più pregiato, il light crude, ha sfiorato i $44 dollari il barile sul mercato a termine di New York (NYMEX, cioe' New York Mercantile Exchange). Il Brent ha raggiunto lo stesso giorno i massimi in 13 anni. Come lo Strategic Alert ha spiegato in precedenza, la tendenza al rialzo dei prezzi petroliferi nel contesto di alti e bassi vertiginosi dei mercati non è dovuta ai meccanismi di domanda ed offerta, ma alla speculazione che imperversa sui mercati a termine, che sono il NYMEX e l'International Petroleum Exchange di Londra (IPE).
Questi mercati non trattano petrolio reale, ma solo "petrolio di carta". Nel 99,9% di tutti i contratti a termine stipulati al NYMEX, nessuna delle due controparti consegna o riceve petrolio reale. Queste transazioni, però, influiscono enormemente sull'andamento dei mercati. La IPE ha reso noto da poco che i contratti derivati sul Brent Crude quest'anno hanno raggiunto un volume che non ha precedenti: il 14 maggio i contratti derivati aperti riguardavano un volume di 3375 milioni di barili. Questo equivale a cinque volte il totale dell'estrazione petrolifera giornaliera mondiale.
Per l'IPE sono disponibili solo le cifre del 12 febbraio, da cui risulta che i future sul brent crude avevano raggiunto i 179 milioni di barili, più del doppio del totale mondiale. Un aspetto curioso della questione è che mentre il "brent di carta" raggiunge volumi sempre maggiori, le consegne effettive di brent reale sono in netta diminuzione. All'inizio degli anni Novanta, la produzione giornaliera di brent ammontava a 700 mila barili al giorno, ma nel 2003 era scesa a 327 mila. Se presumiamo che il brent oggi effettivamente estratto sia di circa 300 mila barili al giorno, il "brent di carta" annunciato il 14 maggio supera quello realmente prodotto di 1250 volte. Sebbene il vero Brent rappresenti meno dello 0,4% della produzione mondiale, il suo prezzo determina quello del 60% di tutta la produzione petrolifera mondiale." (EIR Strategic Alert n.24).
Non solo. Molti paesi arabi non stanno rispettando le quote OPEC. L'Algeria ad esempio: per tutto il 2003 e il primo semestre 2004 ha avuto una produzione di 1,4 milioni di barili/giorno, mentre la quota OPEC è di 782.000 barili/giorno, costantemente superata dall'Algeria. Quasi tutti i paesi si comportano allo stesso modo. I 3.500 barili di petrolio dell'Irak - quelli che mancano dal mercato - già da più di un anno li stanno producendo gli altri. Dunque la crisi del petrolio è un "imbroglio".
Come nel 1973 il petrolio viene usato dagli USA per regolare il mercato mondiale, creando inflazione nei paesi più dipendenti dal petrolio, come Europa e Giappone, ma in parte anche Cina, e ridistribuendo ricchezza agli alleati petroliferi, primo fra tutti l'Arabia Saudita. Un imbroglio redditizio per tutti, e quindi una "verità economica".
3 Agosto 2004 3:07 NEW YORK
Diceva Von Clausewitz che la guerra è la continuazione della politica con altri mezzi. Oggi possiamo dire tranquillamente che la guerra è la continuazione dell'economia con altri mezzi o che l'economia è a sua volta la continuazione della guerra. La guerra in Irak lo dimostra.
Guerra per il petrolio si disse e si dice ancora. E certo il petrolio ha una parte importante dell'orrendo cocktail mediorientale. Ma a guardare dati e statistiche sembra che questa più che una guerra per accaparrarsi le risorse energetiche, sia una guerra per mantenere alti i prezzi. del petrolio. Un maledetto imbroglio. Un imbroglio che si fonda sul mercato. Infatti il mercato del petrolio non è in Medioriente, ma qui, in Occidente. I prezzi non si fanno nei deserti arabi, ma nei supercondizionati grattacieli della City a Londra e di Wall Street, a Manhattan e soprattutto a Houston e a Dallas, Texas.
Facciamo allora il punto sulla questione dei prezzi. Il petrolio era già cresciuto durante la "guerra". Normale. Speculazione fin troppo facile, a vendere sul mercato erano addirittura gli americani, che mentre conquistavano i "pozzi di Saddam" si finanziavano vendendo le loro scorte sul mercato. Ma dopo la conquista i prezzi non scendono, anzi salgono. Salgano fino a $50 a barile. Vacche grasse per le compagnie di petrolio, tutte al rialzo in Borsa e con utili spettacolari. Per far digerire il salatissimo conto sui prodotti petroliferi, benzina in primo luogo, c'è più di una giustificazione: il terrorismo internazionale, che arriva addirittura a colpire gli oleodotti, la mancata ripresa della produzione irachena, e poi, naturalmente, i venali islamici che sfruttano la situazione per rimpinguare le casse dei rispettivi stati e delle famiglie regnanti.
E così si alimenta il conflitto, la "guerra fra civiltà", fra la civiltà dell' automobile utilitaria e quella delle limousine degli sceicchi. Come dire si butta benzina sul fuoco sull'odio. Peccato che le cose non stiano proprio così.
Lunedi' 2 agosto il prezzo del petrolio più pregiato, il light crude, ha sfiorato i $44 dollari il barile sul mercato a termine di New York (NYMEX, cioe' New York Mercantile Exchange). Il Brent ha raggiunto lo stesso giorno i massimi in 13 anni. Come lo Strategic Alert ha spiegato in precedenza, la tendenza al rialzo dei prezzi petroliferi nel contesto di alti e bassi vertiginosi dei mercati non è dovuta ai meccanismi di domanda ed offerta, ma alla speculazione che imperversa sui mercati a termine, che sono il NYMEX e l'International Petroleum Exchange di Londra (IPE).
Questi mercati non trattano petrolio reale, ma solo "petrolio di carta". Nel 99,9% di tutti i contratti a termine stipulati al NYMEX, nessuna delle due controparti consegna o riceve petrolio reale. Queste transazioni, però, influiscono enormemente sull'andamento dei mercati. La IPE ha reso noto da poco che i contratti derivati sul Brent Crude quest'anno hanno raggiunto un volume che non ha precedenti: il 14 maggio i contratti derivati aperti riguardavano un volume di 3375 milioni di barili. Questo equivale a cinque volte il totale dell'estrazione petrolifera giornaliera mondiale.
Per l'IPE sono disponibili solo le cifre del 12 febbraio, da cui risulta che i future sul brent crude avevano raggiunto i 179 milioni di barili, più del doppio del totale mondiale. Un aspetto curioso della questione è che mentre il "brent di carta" raggiunge volumi sempre maggiori, le consegne effettive di brent reale sono in netta diminuzione. All'inizio degli anni Novanta, la produzione giornaliera di brent ammontava a 700 mila barili al giorno, ma nel 2003 era scesa a 327 mila. Se presumiamo che il brent oggi effettivamente estratto sia di circa 300 mila barili al giorno, il "brent di carta" annunciato il 14 maggio supera quello realmente prodotto di 1250 volte. Sebbene il vero Brent rappresenti meno dello 0,4% della produzione mondiale, il suo prezzo determina quello del 60% di tutta la produzione petrolifera mondiale." (EIR Strategic Alert n.24).
Non solo. Molti paesi arabi non stanno rispettando le quote OPEC. L'Algeria ad esempio: per tutto il 2003 e il primo semestre 2004 ha avuto una produzione di 1,4 milioni di barili/giorno, mentre la quota OPEC è di 782.000 barili/giorno, costantemente superata dall'Algeria. Quasi tutti i paesi si comportano allo stesso modo. I 3.500 barili di petrolio dell'Irak - quelli che mancano dal mercato - già da più di un anno li stanno producendo gli altri. Dunque la crisi del petrolio è un "imbroglio".
Come nel 1973 il petrolio viene usato dagli USA per regolare il mercato mondiale, creando inflazione nei paesi più dipendenti dal petrolio, come Europa e Giappone, ma in parte anche Cina, e ridistribuendo ricchezza agli alleati petroliferi, primo fra tutti l'Arabia Saudita. Un imbroglio redditizio per tutti, e quindi una "verità economica".
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Rubrica : cosa muove il mercato del petrolio
http://www.platts.com/Oil/Resources/Whats Moving the Market/
http://www.platts.com/Oil/Resources/Whats Moving the Market/
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
da thestreet.com
A Contrarian View on Oil
By Aaron Pressman
Senior Market Columnist
8/4/2004 9:24 AM EDT
Nigeria, Norway, Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq -- investors need an atlas and a shortwave radio to keep track of all the potential trouble spots for oil supplies right now.
On Tuesday, the president of OPEC said there was no more readily available supply to be put on the market, driving prices up, only to be contradicted by an unnamed Saudi official who told Dow Jones that the kingdom could add 1 million barrels a day. Prices fell, but then rose again on news that the Russian government was expanding its tax probe of OAS Yukos, the country's largest oil producer.
The risks and confusion have put unrelenting upward pressure on black gold. Futures prices closed above $44 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in the 21-year history of the New York Mercantile Exchange's widely followed crude contract. It was the third record close in the past week and marked a 40% gain over the past year.
There was no relief Wednesday. Nymex crude rose 13 cents to $44.28, another record.
Crude's rise is killing stocks, especially those trading on the Nasdaq Composite, which has traded inversely to oil for much of 2004. On Tuesday, the Comp slumped 1.7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each shed about 0.6%.
But I'll stake out the minority position and argue that oil is overbought. Once some of the noise settles down, expect prices to retreat (presumably to the benefit of equities). Futures due in the months beyond the current contract are already signaling that the market expects lower prices ahead. Yesterday October crude ended at $43.66 and November at $43.14. The six-year future -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's favorite measure, according to a speech he gave in April -- closed at less than $35. And speculative players in oil futures and options have been increasing their net long positions over the past month after paring them in June -- a contrarian indicator supporting a pullback.
If you look at the supply and demand fundamentals, oil prices are going to come back to more of a normalized level," said Brian Hicks, co-manager of U.S. Global Investors' Global Resources fund, the top performer in its class over the past three years.
The fund is looking at service and drilling companies, which should benefit as oil producers look for more supply. A handful of producers including Burlington Resources (BR:NYSE - news - research) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD:NYSE - news - research) have already said they'll be increasing spending on capital projects. (The fund was long both as of Dec. 31.)
"We're not looking for $20 a barrel again," Hicks added. "It's funny to talk about prices coming down to the mid- $30s. That would have seemed extremely high a year ago."
Oil in the Extreme
As discussed here last week, the Russian government has no interest in shutting down Yukos or curbing its oil flow. Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the situation to send a message to country's super-rich, like jailed Yukos founder Mikhail Khodorkovsky, not to meddle in politics.
Meanwhile, OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro, also Indonesia's energy minister, might want to get a hotline to Saudi oil headquarters. "Saudi Arabia can immediately with no notice go all the way" to 10.5 million barrels a day, a 1 million barrel increase, the unnamed senior Saudi source told Dow Jones.
Just last week, Purnomo himself was reassuring reporters that OPEC could increase its production. On Tuesday he called current prices "crazy."
Once past the plethora of global hot spots, oil demand is expected to decline substantially next year, according to the International Energy Agency. This year, demand is forecast to increase by 2.5 million barrels a day, or more than 3%, vs. an expected increase of 1.8 million barrels a day in 2005, or closer to 2% annual growth.
Looking out even farther, the debate over crude supply and demand is seesawing between two extremes.
Cal Tech professor David Goodstein's slender book Out of Gas, published in February, argues that a disastrous spike in oil prices will come not when global supplies start to dwindle in 40 or 50 years, but much sooner -- in about 10 years. The disaster scenario will play out when production stops increasing and can't keep pace with the rate of demand increase, he says.
The turning point is known as "Hubbert's peak," named after the Shell Oil geophysicist King Hubbert who in 1956 forecast correctly that U.S. production excluding Alaska would peak around 1970. Goodstein says the worldwide peak for production could be reached in 10 years or less resulting in severe inflation and economic ruin. (My colleague Jon Markman recently penned a column on this issue, also known as "peak oil.")
At the opposite end of the spectrum are followers of Thomas Gold, the late Cornell astrophysicist. Gold maintained that oil is created under the earth's crust without need for dead plant and animal material. Under his "abiotic" theory, also embraced by some Russian scientists, oil supplies can never be exhausted.
The "peak vs. abiotic" debate ought to give investors plenty to mull over as they step back from this week's volatility, which crude itself is likely to do.
A Contrarian View on Oil
By Aaron Pressman
Senior Market Columnist
8/4/2004 9:24 AM EDT
Nigeria, Norway, Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq -- investors need an atlas and a shortwave radio to keep track of all the potential trouble spots for oil supplies right now.
On Tuesday, the president of OPEC said there was no more readily available supply to be put on the market, driving prices up, only to be contradicted by an unnamed Saudi official who told Dow Jones that the kingdom could add 1 million barrels a day. Prices fell, but then rose again on news that the Russian government was expanding its tax probe of OAS Yukos, the country's largest oil producer.
The risks and confusion have put unrelenting upward pressure on black gold. Futures prices closed above $44 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in the 21-year history of the New York Mercantile Exchange's widely followed crude contract. It was the third record close in the past week and marked a 40% gain over the past year.
There was no relief Wednesday. Nymex crude rose 13 cents to $44.28, another record.
Crude's rise is killing stocks, especially those trading on the Nasdaq Composite, which has traded inversely to oil for much of 2004. On Tuesday, the Comp slumped 1.7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each shed about 0.6%.
But I'll stake out the minority position and argue that oil is overbought. Once some of the noise settles down, expect prices to retreat (presumably to the benefit of equities). Futures due in the months beyond the current contract are already signaling that the market expects lower prices ahead. Yesterday October crude ended at $43.66 and November at $43.14. The six-year future -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's favorite measure, according to a speech he gave in April -- closed at less than $35. And speculative players in oil futures and options have been increasing their net long positions over the past month after paring them in June -- a contrarian indicator supporting a pullback.
If you look at the supply and demand fundamentals, oil prices are going to come back to more of a normalized level," said Brian Hicks, co-manager of U.S. Global Investors' Global Resources fund, the top performer in its class over the past three years.
The fund is looking at service and drilling companies, which should benefit as oil producers look for more supply. A handful of producers including Burlington Resources (BR:NYSE - news - research) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD:NYSE - news - research) have already said they'll be increasing spending on capital projects. (The fund was long both as of Dec. 31.)
"We're not looking for $20 a barrel again," Hicks added. "It's funny to talk about prices coming down to the mid- $30s. That would have seemed extremely high a year ago."
Oil in the Extreme
As discussed here last week, the Russian government has no interest in shutting down Yukos or curbing its oil flow. Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the situation to send a message to country's super-rich, like jailed Yukos founder Mikhail Khodorkovsky, not to meddle in politics.
Meanwhile, OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro, also Indonesia's energy minister, might want to get a hotline to Saudi oil headquarters. "Saudi Arabia can immediately with no notice go all the way" to 10.5 million barrels a day, a 1 million barrel increase, the unnamed senior Saudi source told Dow Jones.
Just last week, Purnomo himself was reassuring reporters that OPEC could increase its production. On Tuesday he called current prices "crazy."
Once past the plethora of global hot spots, oil demand is expected to decline substantially next year, according to the International Energy Agency. This year, demand is forecast to increase by 2.5 million barrels a day, or more than 3%, vs. an expected increase of 1.8 million barrels a day in 2005, or closer to 2% annual growth.
Looking out even farther, the debate over crude supply and demand is seesawing between two extremes.
Cal Tech professor David Goodstein's slender book Out of Gas, published in February, argues that a disastrous spike in oil prices will come not when global supplies start to dwindle in 40 or 50 years, but much sooner -- in about 10 years. The disaster scenario will play out when production stops increasing and can't keep pace with the rate of demand increase, he says.
The turning point is known as "Hubbert's peak," named after the Shell Oil geophysicist King Hubbert who in 1956 forecast correctly that U.S. production excluding Alaska would peak around 1970. Goodstein says the worldwide peak for production could be reached in 10 years or less resulting in severe inflation and economic ruin. (My colleague Jon Markman recently penned a column on this issue, also known as "peak oil.")
At the opposite end of the spectrum are followers of Thomas Gold, the late Cornell astrophysicist. Gold maintained that oil is created under the earth's crust without need for dead plant and animal material. Under his "abiotic" theory, also embraced by some Russian scientists, oil supplies can never be exhausted.
The "peak vs. abiotic" debate ought to give investors plenty to mull over as they step back from this week's volatility, which crude itself is likely to do.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ocio , il governo russo ha revocato il permesso dato ieri alla Yukos per usare i conti correnti bancari e finanziare così l'attività ordinaria