vedo che siamo sempre al punto di partenza , ieri mattina stessa ora tutti a pensare che si andasse a 17.500 stamattina dopo 24 ore tutti a pensare che si va a 23.000
in realtà siamo fermi a 19.000.
Pensavo che questa fase del nostro cervello che và su è giù insieme ai prezzi fosse domata invece mi sà che ci dobbiamo lavorare parecchio....
Citazione:
Originalmente inviato da
treno
Tutti noi sappiamo che i prezzi di un indice sono una serie continua di oscillazioni. Quello che non vogliamo ammettere a noi stessi è che non riusciamo a controllare la nostra emotività nelle fasi acute delle oscillazioni. Per quanto il nostro metodo sia efficace non riusciremo mai a comprare uno strumento finanziario che sia da subito in gain virtuale. Non appena il nostro ordine viene eseguito sappiamo già che in seguito verrà comunque battuto un prezzo a noi sfavorevole. Se la possibile perdita virtuale è un elemento di cui siamo a conoscenza prima di eseguire l'ordine perchè non riusciamo a gestire emotivamente il trading ? Quello che fà andare in tilt il nostro sistema nervoso è indubbiamente la differenza tra il nostro prezzo di acquisto ed il prezzo corrente. Più ampia è questa differenza meno lucida è la nostra mente. L'altro elemento che riduce la nostra lucidità mentale è il tempo. Il tempo che scorre durante la nostra perdita virtuale erode con sapiente lentezza le nostre convinzioni. Lo scorrere del tempo introduce nella nostra mente il tarlo del dubbio, andare a dormire con le posizioni aperte è come avere un pisano sull'uscio.
Traders should track their hormones
By John Coates
Published: April 14 2008 21:53 | Last updated: April 14 2008 21:53
Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve,
recently lamented that economics will never have a perfect model of risk. The problem, he said, is that economists cannot fathom the will o’ the wisp of market sentiment. Yet today, neuroscience and endocrinology may help us understand these troublesome spirits. For the waves of irrational exuberance and pessimism that destabilise the financial markets may be driven by naturally produced steroid hormones.
Steroids such as testosterone and cortisol affect our moods, memories and behaviour. Testosterone, for example, surges in males as they prepare for a competition, and continues to rise in the winner while falling in the loser. The winner, primed by elevated testosterone, experiences increased confidence and risk-taking and this improves his chances of winning again, leading to a positive feedback loop termed the “winner effect”.
However, at some point in this winning streak the elevated steroids begin to have the opposite effect on success and survival. Animals experiencing this upward spiral of testosterone and victory have been found after a while to start more fights, to neglect parenting duties and to patrol larger areas, all of which leads them to suffer an increased predation. As levels of testosterone rise, effective risk-taking gradually turns into dangerous behaviour.
Could this upward surge of testosterone, cockiness and risky behaviour also occur in the financial markets? This was a question I asked while working on Wall Street during the dotcom bubble. Many traders at this time displayed manic behaviour and a sense of infallibility. Equally telling was that women appeared relatively unaffected. Both facts implicated a chemical such as testosterone.
Returning to Cambridge, I, with a colleague’s help, sampled testosterone and cortisol from a group of male traders in the City of London. We found that a trader’s daily testosterone levels were indeed higher when he made an above average profit. We also found that the higher a trader’s morning testosterone, the more money he made that day. This effect was most pronounced in experienced traders.
Cortisol, a stress hormone, told us a different story. When reacting to a challenge, cortisol slows down long-term functions of the body, such as digestion and reproduction, marshals glucose for immediate use and promotes an anticipatory arousal. Cortisol reacts with particular force under conditions of novelty and uncertainty. We found that cortisol rose with the variance of the trader’s profits. It also rose in lockstep with implied volatility in the options market, raising the intriguing possibility of a biological substrate for the derivatives market. Cortisol was preparing traders for an impending market move; like testosterone, it was highest and most volatile in experienced traders. They appear cool and unemotional, but beneath the poker face is an endocrine system on fire.
Cortisol and testosterone, it appears, are the chemical messengers our bodies use to signal economic risk and return. Moderate levels of steroids prepare traders for taking risks, but higher levels can impair judgment. If testosterone continued to rise it could, by fostering over-confidence and risk-seeking, lead traders to make irresponsible trades. Testosterone is likely to rise in a bull market, increase risk and exaggerate the rally. Chronic cortisol exposure, on the other hand, promotes feelings of anxiety, a selective recall of disturbing memories and a tendency to find danger where none exists. Cortisol is likely to rise in a crash, make traders dramatically and perhaps irrationally risk-averse, and exaggerate the sell-off.
In the present crisis, traders, exposed for months now to the noxious effects of cortisol, may end up in a psychological state known as “learnt helplessness”. As a result they may become price insensitive, blunting the instruments of monetary policy. A better model of risk, it seems, would ask questions about the physiology of investors, not just their rationality. For example, if bubbles are amplified by a testosterone feedback loop, does this mean they are largely a male phenomenon? Would a greater presence of women and older men in the markets help stabilise them? If risk preferences are determined in part by hormones, then a risk reduction strategy for banks might entail diversifying the endocrine profiles on their trading floors.
The writer, a research fellow at Cambridge University, previously ran a trading desk for Deutsche Bank. His study is published on Tuesday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Apr 15 2008 10:47AM EDT
Should Traders Take Female Hormones?
Back in October, we were all pretty weirded out by
news that a junior trader at SAC Capital Management had sued the hedge fund for making him take female hormones.
The trader said that
Ping Jiang, one of SAC's biggest earners, wanted traders not to be too aggressive and act more effeminate.
SAC denies the allegations, but perhaps the strategy has
merit:
According to new research from the University of Cambridge, a male trader's daily testosterone level is higher on days when he makes more than he would in an average day. What's more, the higher a trader's morning testosterone level, the more money he'll likely have netted before the close of business that day. Testosterone, in other words, can be good for business.
But too much testosterone can lead to a buildup of dangerous bubbles, argues John Coates, one of the study's authors and a former Wall St. trader.
Writing in the
Financial Times today, Coates uses the findings to explain the biology of market sell-offs and suggests that having more women and older men on trading floors can help firms control risk:
Testosterone is likely to rise in a bull market, increase risk and exaggerate the rally. Chronic cortisol exposure, on the other hand, promotes feelings of anxiety, a selective recall of disturbing memories and a tendency to find danger where none exists. Cortisol is likely to rise in a crash, make traders dramatically and perhaps irrationally risk-averse, and exaggerate the sell-off.
In the present crisis, traders, exposed for months now to the noxious effects of cortisol, may end up in a psychological state known as "learnt helplessness". As a result they may become price insensitive, blunting the instruments of monetary policy. A better model of risk, it seems, would ask questions about the physiology of investors, not just their rationality. For example, if bubbles are amplified by a testosterone feedback loop, does this mean they are largely a male phenomenon? Would a greater presence of women and older men in the markets help stabilise them? If risk preferences are determined in part by hormones, then a risk reduction strategy for banks might entail diversifying the endocrine profiles on their trading floors.
Other
research into the link between testosterone and financial decision making has shown that men with high testosterone levels are more likely to reject offers that they deem as unfair, even when it's economically rational to accept. Meanwhile,
even more research has found that women could be better traders than men. Given all of this, perhaps it's time to think hard about ways to reverse that
backslide.
