Un altro capitolo non privo di interesse, se non fosse che le prospettive del sotto-comparto ed inoltre il profilo di rischio finanziario degli issuer inducano a guardare e passare oltre (senza, per carità, soffermarsi), è quello degli autonoleggiatori.
Hertz, se non vado errato, dovrebbe essere anche fra i picks dei simpatici amici danesi di Jyske Bank...
Fra alto leverage degli issuer (Avis è messa anche peggio), scadenze di rifinanziamento che si avvicinano, caduta del valore dei veicoli usati, esigenza di incrementare il collaterale per i creditori secured e cattivo andamento del mercato del car rental, qui cadono tegole in testa agli investitori tutti i giorni. E il peggio deve ancora venire.
Hertz Corp. Rating Lowered To 'B' From 'BB-', Off Watch; Outlook Negative
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) March 31, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today lowered its ratings on car and equipment renter Hertz Corp., including lowering the long-term corporate credit rating to 'B' from 'BB-'. All ratings were removed from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Dec. 22, 2008. The outlook is now negative.
We also lowered our issue-level rating on the company's unsecured notes to 'CCC+' from 'B+'. At the same time, we revised the recovery rating on this debt to '6' from '5', indicating expectations of negligible (0%-10%) recovery of principal in the event of a payment default,
based upon our expectation that the current credit markets will continue to require higher collateralization for secured vehicle facilities, leaving less available for the unsecured lenders.
Also, a shift by Hertz to a higher percentage of risk vehicles in its fleet, combined with a soft automotive retail market, suggests that unsecured recoveries would be lower in the event of a payment default.
The rating actions are based on a weakening in the company's financial profile that began in 2008 and that we expect will continue through at least late 2009 primarily because of reduced demand for car and equipment rentals in addition to our concerns regarding the company's approximately $6 billion of debt that matures through 2010.
"We expect the company's earnings and cash flow to remain under pressure in 2009 as a result of reduced demand and the effect of a weak (albeit recently somewhat improved) used car market, which will likely result in continued higher-than-expected depreciation expense," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Betsy Snyder. "In addition, we are concerned about the company's ability to refinance a significant portion of its $6 billion of debt that matures through 2010.
If it appears that the company will be unsuccessful, we would likely lower the ratings further," the analyst continued.
The ratings on Park Ridge, N.J.-based Hertz reflect an aggressive financial profile following its $14 billion leveraged acquisition in December 2005; the price-competitive and cyclical nature of on-airport car rentals and equipment rentals; its exposure to the troubled automobile manufacturing industry; and significant refinancing risk--with $6 billion of debt maturities through 2010.
Ratings also incorporate the company's position as the largest global car rental company and the strong cash flow its businesses generate.
The rating incorporates our expectation that Hertz's financial profile will remain under pressure through 2009 due to anticipated weaker earnings and cash flow. The negative outlook reflects refinancing risk. If it appears that Hertz will be unable to refinance a significant portion of its $6 billion in debt that matures through 2010, which could be due to a variety of reasons (including continued constrained credit markets and the ongoing negative effect from problems related to the auto manufacturers), we would likely lower ratings.
However, if the company makes significant progress on refinancing its debt, we could revise the outlook to stable. While a bankruptcy of one or more of the auto manufacturers could cause some cash flow delays or further declines in used car values, these would not necessarily cause sufficient damage to result in a downgrade.
If the company purchases a portion of its term loan at a discounted price through a tender offer, we would evaluate whether we considered this a distressed debt purchase, which could ultimately result in a downgrade to 'SD' (selective default), if completed.
