Problema liquidità in crescita per i produttori di componentistica auto europei, secondo Fitch, con elevazione del rischio default nelle fasce a più basso rating del comparto.
Fra le eventuali conseguenze negative della situazione, la possibilità che i costruttori e i produttori di componentistica più solidi siano costretti ad intervenire per fornire supporto finanziario alle rispettive reti di produzione dei componenti.
Nel prossimo biennio, se la capacità di generazione di cassa e la disponibilità di liquidità in bilancio per molti produttori di componentistica rischia di essere inadeguata rispetto alle esigenze di funding, soccorre tuttavia la possibilità di disporre di linee di credito bancarie negoziata in passato.
L'andamento atteso delle vendite nel settore auto europeo per Fitch vedrà un calo minimo del 15% nel 2009 (inferiore quandi alle stime di altre agenzie) e tuttavia, secondo loro, il bottom sarà raggiunto solo nel 2010, anno in cui si assisterà ad un ulteriore calo delle vendite, sia pure inferiore dimensionalmente di quello previsto per il 2009.
L'effetto degli incentivi alla rottamazione in particolare, secondo l'agenzia, rischia di essere quello di anticipare le decisioni di acquisto piuttosto che di incrementarle, con l'effetto di smussare l'intensità della crisi del comparto ma di prolungarne la durata.
Il flusso di default fra i produttori di componentistica e di accessorio auto più deboli avrà luogo già nel 2009 e consentirà ai produttori più forti di trarre beneficio dal successivo consolidamento del comparto.
Fitch: European Auto Supplier's Liquidity Risk Rising
16 Apr 2009 8:44 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London/Frankfurt/Paris-16 April 2009: Fitch Ratings says in a special report published today that it expects a material increase in the number of distressed European auto suppliers as the significant downturn in global auto markets places further pressure on liquidity profiles.
This in turn could force car manufacturers and stronger Tier-1 suppliers to provide financial support to troubled suppliers to avoid more costly disruptions further up the auto supply chain.
"Whilst the liquidity profile for many European suppliers has materially tightened, it is expected to remain adequate for most of Fitch's European publicly-rated universe in 2009, supported by existing longer-term financings and moderate debt maturity schedules," says Markus Leitner, Director in Fitch's European Industrials team. "At the same time the auto supply industry's refinancing risk remains generally high amid limited capability and higher risk awareness of the banking sector."
The special report, which analyses the liquidity of European automotive suppliers, shows that most companies have moderate liquidity profiles, indicating that expected free cash flow generation and cash balances may not be adequate to meet funding needs over the next two years, but that external funding sources, including committed bank facilities, are expected to meet these requirements.
Fitch notes that Continental AG ('BB'/'B'/Negative) has a relatively weak liquidity profile to peers, being exposed to a substantial amount of maturing debt and related refinancing risk, particularly from a EUR3.5bn tranche stemming from its VDO acquisition facility due in August 2010.
The auto supply industry faces extreme pressure in the wake of the significant downturn in global vehicle markets, the trend towards smaller, more fuel-efficient and environmentally-friendly cars and highly-challenging financing conditions.
The global recession and decline of consumer confidence, in combination with tighter credit availability, has led to a drop of 20%-30% in new car registrations in mature markets since the second half of 2008.
Fitch expects car sales to decline by more than 15% in Europe in 2009 and likely to continue falling in 2010, although to a much lesser extent. This slump in demand will further affect suppliers' financial profiles, leading to reduced profitability, cash flow generation and significantly higher financial leverage.
The effect of scrapping incentives for old cars implemented in several countries in Europe may mitigate the severity of negative underlying demand for new vehicles and should limit the extent of the market downturn in the short term. However, Fitch believes that demand is brought forward rather than stimulated in absolute terms. Looking at previous experiences in the US or Europe, a pay-back effect is likely when incentives stop.
Against this backdrop, several - often smaller- to medium-sized - suppliers are exposed to severe financial distress with the need for deep restructuring measures, or have already filed for insolvency. Fitch believes that default rates will materially increase in the sector during the course of 2009 which will lead to accelerated consolidation with the stronger and financially well-positioned players benefiting in the medium-term.
The sector's stress is also evident by the credit deterioration of Fitch's shadow-rated automotive portfolio, with 50% now rated at 'CCC'* or below as of March 2009, compared to only 9% as of June 2008 (please see Fitch's 2 April 2009 comment, entitled 'European Leveraged Automotives Face Increasing Stress', available on the agency's public website,
www.fitchratings.com, for further information).
