Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond case automobilistiche e accessorio auto (3 lettori)

[Imark]

L'output produttivo delle case nipponiche a marzo... si va dal -57% y-o-y di Mitsubishi, quella che ha fatto peggio, fino a Honda quella che, per modo di dire, ha fatto meglio: -37%

Japan's automakers extend deep production slump in March


Tomoko A. Hosaka, Associated Press Writer
Thursday April 23, 2009, 7:13 am EDT

Automakers reported deep production declines in March as the unprecedented collapse in global demand maintained its painful grip on one of the country's key industries.

Toyota Motor Corp., the world's biggest automaker, said its worldwide production slid 46 percent in March from a year earlier to 472,036 vehicles as overseas demand plunged by more than two-thirds.

Toyota's production in Japan was halved, while overseas output dived 40 percent.

For the fiscal year ended March 31, global production retreated 16 percent to 8.09 million vehicles, the maker of the Prius hybrid and Lexus luxury models said in a statement.

Hit by plummeting sales, Toyota expects to incur a net loss of 350 billion yen ($3.6 billion ) for the fiscal year ended March 2009 -- its first annual net loss since 1950. The company was growing robustly until the U.S. financial meltdown hit last year and like other Japanese automakers has responded by slashing contract workers and curtailing production.
Global production at Honda Motor Co. slumped more than 37 percent to 215,773 vehicles from a year earlier, marking the fifth straight month of decline for Japan's second-biggest automaker.

The fall was particularly severe in the U.S., where Honda's production dropped 46 percent to 45,011 units. Production in Japan was down 40 percent.

Overall fiscal year output at Honda fell for the first time in a dozen years, slowing almost 10 percent, the Tokyo-based automaker said.
Nissan Motor Co. made 172,195 vehicles worldwide in March, down 45 percent from a year earlier. Production in the U.S. dived 47 percent to 25,120 units, while output in Japan sank 56 percent.

Global production for the 12 months through March fell 17 percent to 2.92 million units.

Tokyo-based Nissan, allied with Renault SA of France, is the nation's third-biggest automaker and manufactures the Altima sedan and March compact.

Mitsubishi Motors Corp. said its global output totaled 58,895 vehicles in March, down 57 percent and the 13th straight month of year-on-year falls.

Mazda Motor Corp., based in Hiroshima in southwestern Japan, also recorded dismal results in March, with worldwide production plummeting 55 percent to 57,527 units

 

[Imark]

Volvo rivede al rialzo le stime di calo del mercato europeo dei veicoli industriali: nel 2009 calerà del 50% rispetto al 2008. La stima precedente, del febbraio scorso, prevedeva un calo del 44%. L'outlook è ritenuto dagli analisti "più pessimistico" di quello di Daimler, che aveva recentemente individuato una forchetta per il calo del mercato europeo espressa in termini percentuali "fra il 30% ed il 50%"

Volvo Predicts Steeper Market Slump as Losses Persist (Update3)

By Chad Thomas and Chris Reiter


April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Volvo AB, the second-largest maker of heavy trucks, predicted a steeper decline in the European and North American markets and reported a second consecutive loss as transporters cut purchases amid the economic slump.

The first-quarter net loss was 4.23 billion kronor ($510 million) compared with net income of 4.2 billion kronor a year earlier, Gothenburg, Sweden-based Volvo said in a statement today. Volvo slumped as much as 9.3 percent in Stockholm trading, its sharpest drop in more than two months.
European sales of trucks heavier than 16 metric tons fell 44 percent to 16,792 vehicles last month, the region’s carmaking trade group said today. Volvo predicted that industrywide truck deliveries in Europe will plunge at least 50 percent in 2009, compared with a February forecast of as much as 44 percent.

“The sales channel in eastern Europe is closed,” said Christian Aust, an analyst at UniCredit in Munich. “Used-truck prices have declined significantly, and if the market slump continues, we could see a price war develop in the new-truck market.”

Volvo, which announced plans on April 22 to eliminate an additional 1,543 jobs on top of thousands of positions cut in the last year, forecast a drop in the North American truck market of as much as 40 percent. In February, the maker of Mack trucks foresaw a decline of at most 11 percent.

“Demand weakened sharply in all markets during the first quarter,” Chief Executive Officer Leif Johansson said in the statement. “We will further reduce production rates in most plants during the second quarter.”

Daimler Forecast

Volvo’s forecasts are more pessimistic than projections by Daimler AG, the world’s largest truckmaker. The Stuttgart, Germany-based company said on March 20 that truck demand will probably decline 30 percent to 50 percent this year in Europe, and 30 percent in North America.

Like Volvo, Daimler is reining in operations. The company, which makes Mercedes-Benz, Fuso and Freightliner vehicles, has outlined plans to cut annual costs by at least 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) through pay cuts, reduced marketing, and plant closures in North America. It also plans to reorganize operations in Asia.

Volvo’s loss was almost triple the 1.5 billion-kronor loss estimated by analysts. Sales in the quarter fell 27 percent to 56.1 billion kronor.
The truck division, the largest of Volvo’s five units, posted a loss of 2.38 billion kronor, while orders plunged 65 percent to 20,183 vehicles. Sales at the construction-equipment division, the second-largest, dropped 46 percent.

Volvo fell as much as 5.1 kronor, or 9.3 percent, to 49.90 kronor and traded at 53.75 kronor as of 10:41 a.m. in Stockholm. The shares have risen 25 percent this year. Daimler rose 0.5 percent to 26.48 euros on the Frankfurt exchange.

 

[yellow]

24.04.09 13:16 - *Ford: stima di raggiungere breakeven o utile in 2011



24.04.09 13:13 - *Ford: Cfo, chiuderemo 2009 senza bisogno nuovo capitale




24.04.09 13:16 - Ford: passa in perdita nel 1* trim., ma supera le attese
DETROIT (MF-DJ)--Ford passa in perdita nel primo trimestre dell'anno, ma batte le attese degli analisti.


La casa automobilistica ha registrato un rosso da 1,4 miliardi di dollari, pari a 60 cent ad azione, a fronte dell'utile da 70 milioni, o 3 cent, dello stesso periodo dello scorso anno.

Su base pro-forma, il risultato si e' attestato su una perdita per azione di 75 cent, contro l'Eps da 20 cent dell'anno precedente ed ha battuto le attese degli analisti, che puntavano su un rosso da 1,19 dollari ad azione.
Il risultato operativo si e' attestato su un passivo di 1,8 miliardi di euro, mentre nel primo trimestre del 2008 l'utile operativo era stato di 447 milioni.


Il fatturato e' sceso da 39,2 a 24,8 miliardi di dollari. Ford ha fatto sapere di aver bruciato 3,7 miliardi di dollari nel primo trimestre, che si e' chiuso con 21,3 miliardi di dollari cash.

La quota di mercato in Usa e' invece risultata pari al 13,9%.



La casa automobilistica ha annunciato che prevede di centrare o superare i target finanziari per l'anno in corso e che punta a tagliare 4 miliardi di dollari di costi strutturali. Ford ha infine reso noto che stima di chiudere il 2009 senza effettuare nuovi aumenti di capitali ne' chiedere alcun prestito ponte al Governo e che prevede di registrare una ripresa non appena l'economia tornera' sana. La societa' dovrebbe tornare in utile o in pareggio nel 2011.

 

[Imark]

Intanto Valeo diffonde i conti trimestrali Q1/2009, con una perdita netta di 159 mln euro ed un calo delle vendite del 33%. Valeo pinifica una riduzione degli investimenti previsti per il 2009 in misura di 1/3 e delle spese nell'ordine di 600 mln euro annualizzati (500 mln euro da conseguire entro il 2009). Il margine sulle vendite passa in negativo (-4,1%).

Circa il piano di tagli per 5.000 posti implementato a fine 2008, annuncia che oltre 3.200 sono stati realizzati nel Q1/2009 e di aver conseguito riduzioni dei costi nei primi 3 mesi per 183 mln euro.

La situazione della liquidità resta solida, con 1,2 mld euro di linee di credito disponibili contro un debito complessivo di 933 mln euro.

Nell'ultimo quarter del 2008 aveva chiuso i conti con un utile netto di 43 mln euro.

Reitera il target di calo del mercato globale automotive del 20% nel 2009 (30% nel H1/2009)

Valeo Swings To EUR159M Net Loss In 1Q From EUR43M Net Pft

Fri, Apr 24 2009, 06:01 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

Valeo Swings To EUR159M Net Loss In 1Q From EUR43M Net Pft

PARIS (Dow Jones)--French automotive parts maker Valeo SA (FR.FR) swung to a net loss of EUR159 million in the first quarter, as sales plunged 33% in downward spiraling car markets, forcing it to slash 2009 investments by a third and to plan EUR600 million of annualized spending cuts.

In reporting its move Friday into a loss from the EUR43 million of net profit in the opening three months of last year, Paris-based Valeo offered only a little hope of improvement in market conditions this year.

While reiterating its previously stated expectation that global automotive production will tumble 30% in the first half and 20% over the full year, the company said the rate of decline should be less pronounced starting in the second quarter.

It said government incentives in some countries - especially France, Germany and Italy - that encourage car owners to scrap aging vehicles to buy new ones aren't enough to arrest the output decline at least for now.

Valeo's fortunes are linked inexorably to vehicle production by the world's carmakers. And auto manufacturers are suffering double-digit sales and production declines in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

Indeed, Europe's second-largest carmaker, France's Peugeot SA (UG.FR), Wednesday reported a 25% revenue decline for the first quarter from a year earlier and cut output 39% to work down bloated inventories. European market leader, Volkswagen AG (VOW.XE), had an 11% sales drop. Neither offered much hope for a recovery this year, saying there is little visibility into trends, especially toward the end of the year.

Valeo's report on interim financial results was its first since parting ways March 20 with then Chairman and Chief Executive Thiery Morin over differences on strategy and the board's intention to split the chairman and CEO functions.

The company didn't forecast sales or earnings outright for the rest of the year. In February, though, it had said it expected an operating loss for the first half.

Meantime, Valeo said the drop in sales led to a swing in its closely tracked operating margin to a loss of EUR66 million in the first quarter from a EUR90 million profit a year earlier. As a percentage of sales, the margin was -4.1% versus 3.7%.

The cost-saving measures announced Friday follow on a plan set in motion at the end of last year to cut headcount by 5,000. "At March 31, 3,230 departures had been registered worldwide," Valeo said, adding, "The savings achieved in the first quarter amounted to EUR183 million. Of the annualized EUR600 million the company plans in cost savings, EUR500 million will be taken in 2009."

"The Group is also focusing on reinforcing its liquidity and controlling cash," Valeo said. While noting investments will be cut by one-third, it added that "free cash flow for the year will be negative, but will not significantly exceed the amount of expenses committed for restructuring programs."

Valeo said its financial situation is sound, noting that as of March 31, none of its EUR1.2 billion of confirmed credit lines had been drawn upon. Total debt was EUR933 million.

"The Group's liquidity therefore remains intact," it said, disclosing that for EUR541 million of the credit lines, it has reached an agreement with creditors to substitute a covenant based on a ratio of net financial debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization for one based on the net financial debt to equity ratio. It wasn't more specific.

 

[Imark]

L'effetto degli incentivi per la rottamazione varati in Francia nell'opinione di Fitch. Tendenzialmente neutro sul valore residuo dei veicoli già circolanti sul mercato dell'usato, tale effetto è visto primariariamente nell'anticipazione di comportamenti di acquisto già determinati. Gli incentivi infatti non sarebbero idonei a spingere il proprietario di un veicolo usato a pagare cmq un supplemento di prezzo per sostituire il proprio veicolo con altro nuovo, piuttosto che con altro usato.

Peraltro, se è vero che, per effetto degli incentivi, al momento il numero delle auto vendute in Francia è aumentato dell'8% su base annua, è altresì confermato come già il dato di marzo segnali una riduzione delle nuove auto immatricolate pari all'1,8% (insomma, miccia corta, verrebbe da pensare... ) e, secondo Fitch, il dato sarebbe stato molto peggiore senza gli incentivi, ai quali - secondo la locale associazione dei produttori di automobili - sarebbero da ricondursi fra il 30% ed il 40% degli acquisti effettuati nel mese.

Anche in Francia inoltre, nel tentativo di spingere le vendite, le case hanno aggiunto propri sconti all'incentivo statale.

Fra le conseguenze degli incentivi quella di accrescere la quota di nuove vendite coperta dalle vetture di medie e piccole dimensioni, passata dal 45% del 2007 al 50% del 2008 ed al 57% del Q1/2009, mentre la quota complessiva di auto di piccola cilindrata sul totale del mercato automobilistico francese passa nel marzo 2009 al 65% contro il 61% registrato y-o-y.

L'impatto di questo spostamento del mercato verso auto di minori dimensioni sulle quotazioni degli ABS che hanno come sottostante i finanziamenti all'acquisto di autovetture e come garanzia le autovetture vendute resta molto contenuto, secondo Fitch, in quanto a risentirne saranno soprattutto le quotazioni delle autovetture circolanti di maggiori dimensioni, veicoli che nelle ABS transaction non hanno un peso particolarmente significativo.

Il mercato dell'usato delle altre classi di vetture non dovrebbe vedere, per quanto già detto, cali significativi nel valore dei veicoli.

Fitch: French Auto Subsidy Scheme Has Neutral Impact On Auto ABS

20 Apr 2009 4:29 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-Paris/London-20 April 2009: Fitch Ratings says today that the French government's auto scrapping incentive will have a neutral impact on residual auto values and ultimately on French auto ABS transactions. The scheme appears to have been successful, however, in stemming the decline in new auto registrations. The final number of new passenger car sales increased by 8.1% yoy in March 2009.

"Although the scheme will have a neutral impact on French auto ABS transactions, it could potentially provide some dynamism to the auto industry," says Natalia Bourin, Senior Director, Fitch's French Structured Finance team.

The French scheme allows individuals to receive a government subsidy towards the purchase of a new, more fuel efficient car if they scrap their old vehicle. Subsidies, starting at EUR200 and rising to EUR5,000, are tied to a car's CO2 emissions, whereby a higher subsidy is alloted to more fuel efficient cars. An additional subsidy of EUR1,000 is available for cars aged 10 years or older that are scrapped against the purchase of a new car that emits less than 160g of CO2 per kilometre. The scheme runs until the end of 2009. However, Fitch believes it will mainly result in new vehicle purchases being shifted forward in time, and is unlikely to contribute to increased future volumes in the used car segment.

"The scheme mainly stimulates individuals who would have bought a new car anyway, although at a later stage," says Emmanuelle Ricordeau, Senior Director, Fitch's French Structured Finance team. "The scheme does not typically provide sufficient economic incentive for the used car customer to shift to the new car segment and pay the additional premium that new cars have over used vehicles. As a consequence, no large arrival of vehicles in the used car market is expected and the impact of the scheme on residual values is expected to be negligible."

Nevertheless, the agency continues to monitor and focus on residual values in the context of assessing the impact of the global recession, and/or a manufacturer insolvency on residual values.

Second to Germany, France is one of the EU countries where car registrations have declined the least (Spanish new car registrations declined 45.5% yoy in January and February 2009). The final number of new passenger car sales in France increased by 8.1% year on year. However, correcting for the number of days in the month, new French vehicle registration volumes in March actually decreased by 1.8%. Fitch believes that the decrease would have been far worse if the subsidy scheme had not been in place.

The French CCFA (auto manufacturers' association) believes that the subsidy scheme can be deemed to account for 30% to 40% of new vehicle registrations. Auto manufacturers have additionally responded to the incentive scheme by developing similar supplementary incentives. An example is that of Peugeot ('BB+'), which has offered a EUR800 discount for the purchase of a '107', or a discount of EUR3,400 for a '407' and the return of an old vehicle.

The incentives have shifted passenger car purchases towards small to medium vehicles and more environmentally-friendly auto segments (57% market share in the first quarter 2009 compared to 50% in 2008 and 45% in 2007).

The small car share of the French market increased to 65% as of March 2009 from 61% in 2008, while nearly all other vehicle types decreased, especially the executive segment. Ultimately, the shift from large to smaller vehicles is expected to stress residual values of the former. The impact on Fitch-rated French auto ABS transactions will be neutral, however, as these larger less fuel efficient cars amount to negligible percentages.

The performance of the majority of European auto ABS transactions remains within Fitch's base case expectations. Further details on the performance of European auto ABS transatcion rated by the agency can be found in Fitch's quarterly Tyre Tracks index, available on the agency's public website, www.fitchratings.com

 

[Bosco]

Ciao Mark,grazie per i continui aggiornamenti!Cosa ne pensi dei bond Peugeot 11 e 33?

 

[Imark]

Ciao Mark,grazie per i continui aggiornamenti!Cosa ne pensi dei bond Peugeot 11 e 33?

Ciao Bosco, secondo me il più lungo ha senso per farci trading e non altro, potrà ristagnare su quotazioni basse ancora a lungo, si muoverà anche di concerto con l'azionario, essendo HY, ed in più è davvero molto lungo ... ergo non avrei particolare fretta a comprarlo.

Aggiungo che l'idea di tenerlo nel cassetto a lungo per il "rendimentone", mi sembra pure rischioso, perché se fra qualche tempo (faccio per dire, un paio di anni) dovesse ripartire l'inflazione, con un'emittente ancora HY ed una curva dei rendimenti molto invertita ... certo, la cosa darebbe chiari segnali e chi non lo avesse preso per tenerlo in portafogli potrebbe venderlo in tempo...

Il primo mi sembra una scelta meno speculativa, gravata dal solo rischio default.

Intendiamoci: anche a me, per l'esperienza maturata in questi anni, viene da pensare che, figuriamoci se i francesi lasciano andare in default Peugeot... però lo avevo pensato anche per gli americani con Lehman Brothers...

 

[Bosco]

Molto gentile,grazie!

 

[azetaelle]

qualcuno mi sa dare qualche info su questa:

VW bank 12/2011 7% DE0008107921

che a Francoforte quota circa 81-85 (è sicuramente poco liquida, però con quei prezzi, quella cedola, quella durata e rating comunque vw...mi incuriosisce)

più che altro nella scheda
http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=108&ISIN=DE0008107921
leggo "type: Profit Participating Certificate" e non so cosa significhi...
grazie!

 

[Imark]

qualcuno mi sa dare qualche info su questa:

VW bank 12/2011 7% DE0008107921

che a Francoforte quota circa 81-85 (è sicuramente poco liquida, però con quei prezzi, quella cedola, quella durata e rating comunque vw...mi incuriosisce)

più che altro nella scheda
http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=108&ISIN=DE0008107921
leggo "type: Profit Participating Certificate" e non so cosa significhi...
grazie!

Ciao, sono bond particolari... assimilabili a preferred shares, possono esporre facilmente al rischio di perdere la cedola in quanto essa è costruita come titolo di partecipazione agli utili (ergo, se non ci sono utili...) Va anche verificato, per tramite del Prospetto, se il titolo esponga alla riduzione del capitale in caso di perdite, attraverso meccanismi di loss absorption.

Buono di godimento / Genussschein / bon de jouissance / dividend-right certificate

Titolo di partecipazione agli utili che non conferisce diritti societari ma solo diritti patrimoniali, in particolare il diritto a una quota dell'utile netto distribuito, alla sottoscrizione di nuove azioni e al ricavato della liquidazione di una società