Società e previsioni...
TAKING THE PULSE: Europe's chemical companies look set to unveil dismal fourth-quarter results due to steep slides in demand from customers in the automotive, textile and construction sectors - and analysts don't foresee significant improvements anytime soon. Investors will focus on how earnings were affected by foreign exchange moves, potential inventory write-downs, raw material prices and whether companies dare to give guidance for 2009. The chemical sector's problems were underlined this month when BASF, the world's largest chemicals company by sales, said poor business in December and January prompted it to shut sites, cut production and lay off workers around the world.
Lonza Group AG (LONN.VX) -- Jan. 27, 0600 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Sales at the Swiss specialty chemicals company are expected to have risen slightly year-on-year while net profit may have more than doubled due to a CHF91M book-gain from the sale of the Polynt operations. A positive impact from cost cutting measures on EBIT may be offset by higher raw material costs and negative currency effects. Analysts expect the company to confirm its mid-term target of annual average EBIT growth of 15%-20% by 2013.
MAIN FOCUS: Interest will center on raw materials prices and whether the company will be able to pass them on to customers.
Johnson Matthey (JMAT.LN) -- Jan. 28, 0700 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Analysts see limited risk to Johnson Matthey's fourth-quarter earnings per share growth due to it's pricing power and costs control. Platinum market is expected to remain relatively tight as primary producers continue to scale back expansion plans.
MAIN FOCUS: Mains interest is the impact from lower oil prices on its process technologies; how the car industry's problems affected its auto catalyst operations; its capex development and company's 2009 outlook.
Syngenta AG (SYT) -- Feb. 6, 0600 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Revenues at the Swiss agrochemical company are expected to continue double-digit growth in the fourth quarter as demand for crop enhancement and protection product continues, especially in Latin America. Analysts expect the company to reach its 2008 target of more than 35% EPS growth.
MAIN FOCUS: The market will watch for statements about its 2009 guidance of EPS growth in the high teens. Comments on prices for soft commodities which rose sharply in the past weeks will also be of interest.
L'Air Liquide SA (AI.FR) - Feb. 16 - Before market open
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: SocGen has described Air Liquide the most resilient player in the well-placed industrial gases sector, with around 70% of its gases earnings having some level of protection, more than its peers. SocGen sees full-year net income up 3.7%.
MAIN FOCUS: Air Liquide is still considered to be defensive due to its long-term, take-or-pay contracts, and the fact that many of its products are indispensable to industry. Still, SocGen in a note said there's a risk Air Liquide will miss its guidance for underlying double-digit net income growth, so performance against guidance and the outlook for 2009 will key.
Yara ASA (YAR.OS) Feb 17, 0700 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: The Norwegian fertilizer company's fourth-quarter revenue is expected to be in the region of NOK16-17 billion, but the company's dollar exposure will hit the bottom line, causing a net loss of around NOK1-1.5 billion in the period, analysts say. The downturn in fertilizer markets will have squeezed margins so figures will also be weak on an operating level.
MAIN FOCUS: The market will watch out for updates on plant restarts after Yara halted output some units due to a collapse in urea and ammonia prices since July. Comments on deregulation of Chinese fertilizer markets also of interest.
Clariant AG (CLN.VX) -- Feb. 17, 0700 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: A double-digit fall in sales are expected as customers delay orders from the Swiss company, which is unlikely to have hit its EBIT margin target of between 6.5% and 6.8%, analysts say. Clariant generates 50% of sales in euros and sterling, so the depreciation of those two currencies against the Swiss Franc will hurt too.
MAIN FOCUS: Was Clariant able to raise prices to compensate for low volumes? News of fresh job cuts and business during January and February also of interest.
Croda International PLC (CRDA.LN) - Feb. 19, 0700 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: At Croda, clycerine profits might have taken a hit in the fourth quarter, which however should have been more than offset by price increases, a weaker British pound and volume growth in consumer care, analysts say.
MAIN FOCUS: The market will carefully evaluate statements on the integration of the recently acquired Uniqema, statements on the company's debt situation, given its stretched balance sheet and impact of currency developments, as Croda benefits from a depreciation of the British pound.
Koninklijke DSM N.V. (DSM.AE) - Feb. 18, 0615 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Dutch chemical company DSM, which is in the process of transforming itself into a Life Sciences and Material Sciences business, will report a weak fourth quarter due to the collapse in the Materials business on slower demand from some end-markets like autos, electronics and construction and customer de-stocking. Nutrition should hold up well, supported by stable pricing and volumes, but Farm business is expected to be weaker because of loss of some contracts.
MAIN FOCUS: DSM cut its 2008 profit forecast in December for the second time in two months and said it would cut 5% of its workforce. Full year guidance 2008 is for operating profit of above EUR900 million. Analysts expect outlook 2009 to be sharply down on 2008 with comments on limited visibility.
Merck KGaA (MRK.XE) Feb. 18, 2009 at 0600 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Company has seen a substantial fall in orders for liquid crystals and pigments but it should fare better than its rivals due to its pharmaceuticals business. For 2008, the company recently narrowed its guidance, with revenue to grow between 6% and 8% and the operating margin - excluding amortization and Merck Serono integration costs - to increase between 23% and 25%.
MAIN FOCUS: Analysts will watch for Erbitux sales development and how production cuts will affect the first quarter of 2009.
Solvay SA (SOLB.BT) - Feb. 19, 0630 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: The Belgian company is likely to post a lower recurring profit before interest and taxes, or Rebit, for calendar 2008 compared with 2007. Solvay's pharma unit should partially offset the poor performance by its chemicals operations, analysts say.
MARKET FOCUS: Guidance on volumes and price trends for 2009 is key, along with statements on the impact of exchange rate movements, especially for the pharma unit.
Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZA.AE) - Feb. 24, 0600 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Dutch coatings and chemicals company AkzoNobel is seen reporting a weak fourth quarter, with all division facing challenges. Specialty Chemicals will be down due to lower volumes and customer de-stocking, while Decorative Paints will face volume weakness in U.S. and Europe and continued high raw material costs. Performance Coatings will suffer from weak market conditions in Industrial Finishes and Car Refinish.
MAIN FOCUS: Company maintained its full year outlook at third quarter results and hasn't made any other statements on outlook since then. Expects Ebitda before incidentals in constant currencies close to the 2007 pro-forma level of EUR1.87 billion. Analysts don't expect quantitative outlook for 2009, but rather a qualitative statement with comments on lack of visibility.
Henkel AG & Co. KGaA (HEN.XE) - Feb. 25, 0615 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Analysts expect Henkel fourth-quarter earnings to be dominated by a likely downturn in its Industrial Adhesives activities. The weak performance of Beiersdorf AG's (BEI.XE) adhesive division Tesa and H.B. Fuller's 4Q figures underscore a negative read-through for Henkel's growth and margin performance within the Industrial Adhesives division, which contributes about 45% to Henkel's total sales, says JP Morgan.
MAIN FOCUS: Analysts will scrutinize statements on the integration process of National Starch and the net debt level. The latter one amounted to EUR5.3B in 3Q, so the operating cash flow and performance are a factors to watch out for. The company itself expects a rise in adjusted EBIT "at the lower end of the mid-teen percentage" range in 2008, while organic sales should rise between 3% and 5%.
Rhodia S.A. (RHA.FR) -- Feb. 25, 0630 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Analysts expect a deterioration in Ebitda in the fourth quarter and a net earnings loss. The company warned in December that it expects 2008 recurring Ebitda about 10% below 2007 levels.
FOCUS: Indications on underlying cash flow will be key, especially as earnings in the chemicals operations are likely to be in loss and only supported by the carbon credit business, where price momentum has also turned negative, says an analyst. There will also be interest in the group's other financial liabilities such as its significant pension deficit. As with Rhodia's peers, observers will also note guidance in terms of the timing of a possible economic recovery and the effects of economic stimulus plans.
BASF SE (BAS.XE) Feb. 26, at 0630 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Analysts expect profit to come in below guidance, with fourth-quarter EBIT losses in the chemicals and plastics divisions following management's comments about a worse-than-expected slowdown and further production cuts. For 2008, the chemicals maker recently revised its earnings forecast to match the prior year's level, rather than an increase. Despite falling demand, BASF says 2008 sales should still improve over the year-earlier level, bolstered by strong agricultural business in Latin America and gas trading.
MAIN FOCUS: Analysts will look for management's comments about the 2009 outlook as well as for any improvements in the auto, construction and textile industries.
Arkema (AKE.FR) -- Mar. 5, 0800 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Arkema warned in December that its sales in the fourth quarter should be 15% lower on the year and that 2008 Ebitda margin should stay level at 9%. This will probably lead the company to post a loss in the fourth quarter and no surprises are expected March 5, analysts say.
FOCUS: Arkema has a strong balance sheet compared to peers and restructuring momentum provides some support, but investors expect to get further information on cash flow and possible elongated shutdowns, says an analyst, adding: "It will be a challenge to achieve break-even this year (2009) without major cost savings and definitive closures."
K+S AG (SDF.XE) March 12, 0600 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Analysts foresee a slowdown in 4Q due to lower prices for agricultural products and restrained demand for fertilizers. Management revised its 2008 outlook to the lower end of its previous range, with revenue of just under EUR5.3 billion and operating earnings at EUR1.4 billion.
MAIN FOCUS: Analysts look for comments about the 2009 outlook after production cuts were expanded through the first half of the yea.
Linde AG (LIN.XE) - Mar. 16, before 0900 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: UBS expects the company to report flat 4Q year-on-year Ebitda of EUR651M. It sees gas sales up 1%, at EUR3.3B. The organic growth in the segment is however likely weighed down by a slowdown in bulk & cylinder.
MAIN FOCUS: Analysts will watch for statements on the company's target of an Ebitda of EUR3 billion in 2010, which they see as stretched. Statements on debt levels will also be closely watched.
Lanxess AG (LHA.XE) March 18, at 0630 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Analysts see a worse-than-expected 4Q following a strong 3Q, with volumes declining in performance rubber and specialty chemicals businesses. De-stocking by customers and lower prices due to a drop in raw material prices will result in a severe margin squeeze., they add. Saltigo and basic chemicals should have fared better due to high exposure to growing agrochemical and pharmaceutical industries. Lanxess recently raised its outlook for 2008, and expects Ebitda excluding special items of between EUR710 million and EUR730 million.
MAIN FOCUS: Comment on whether cost-cutting and temporary production cutbacks can offset margin pressure from the economic downturn.
Wacker Chemie AG (WCH.XE) March 18, 0615 GMT
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Analysts say results should meet fourth-quarter targets. Company says it expects record sales and earnings for 2008 after a better-than-expected 3Q, with sales growth above 10% and a higher Ebitda. Still, the company has cautioned about a weaker 4Q and implemented production cuts.
MAIN FOCUS: Analysts foresee pressure on the polysilicon business due to a slumping spot market, and a margin squeeze at Siltronic due to a slowdown in solar industry production.
