Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa

Postilo, postilo...:D:D:D

Intanto, si aggiunge materiale nuovo, purtroppo per chi è ancora nei titoli di questo emittente... downgrade di due livelli di S&P, da B- a CCC/negative, per tutte le società del gruppo.

L'EBITDA di INEOS è letteralmente evaporato nel Q4/2008 e sarà molto difficile che la società si conservi cash flow positive nel 2009, anche ove azzerasse il capex ai livelli minimi per le manutenzioni e l'esercizio dell'attività aziendale.

Visto il forecast di una caduta durissima per il petrolchimico nel biennio 2009-2010, S&P postula che il peggio debba venire.

Escluse iniezioni di capitale da parte della proprietà e preclusa la strada della cessione di asset dalle condizioni di mercato e dalla stessa struttura proprietaria del gruppo, è molto probabile che ad aprile 2009 INEOS debba procedere ad una ristrutturazione del debito nel contesto della rinegoziazione dei covenant sul debito che ha in programma con le banche creditrici.

Ineos Group Ratings Cut To 'CCC' On Weak Market Conditions; Outlook Negative

PARIS (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 23, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it lowered to 'CCC' from 'B-' its long-term corporate credit rating on U.K.-based chemical group Ineos, which includes Ineos Group Holdings PLC, Ineos Holdings Ltd., Ineos Vinyls Finance PLC, and Ineos Vinyls Ltd. The outlook is negative.

"This reflects the unprecedented weak market conditions for petrochemical companies in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the weak outlook for 2009, which could result in severe liquidity pressure for Ineos as a result of its highly leveraged financial structure," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lucas Sevenin.

According to Ineos' unaudited preliminary information, reported EBITDA was negative €705 million for fourth-quarter 2008. Even adjusted for the one-time items, such as the inventory holding loss of about €1,005 million due to much lower oil prices, the adjusted fourth-quarter 2008 EBITDA reached only €300 million.

Ineos will have to renegotiate with lenders in April to obtain a
longer-term covenant framework. We see a risk that these negotiations could also include some debt restructuring. We expect Ineos to face very challenging operating trends in 2009 and 2010, given weaker economies and the petrochemical downturn.


Standard & Poor's expects Ineos' credit metrics to continue to weaken in 2009 and 2010 on weaker profits.

Ineos's reported net debt as of Dec. 31, 2008, was about €7.5 billion.
Reported net debt to adjusted EBITDA was about 4.6x. Free operating cash flow (FOCF) could turn negative in 2009, even if the group cuts capital expenditure to maintenance levels.


We are not assuming any equity injections or asset disposals as potentially offsetting factors, given the market conditions and
Ineos' ownership structure.


We view Ineos' business profile as weak, owing to material cyclicality,
commoditization, and competition in the industry. In addition, the company faced significant production issues in 2006 and 2007, while in 2008 the Grangemouth, U.K., strike and Hurricane Ike substantially negatively affected earnings.


"The negative outlook reflects our concerns about Ineos' liquidity given the various operating and financial risks it faces in 2009," said Mr. Sevenin. The ratings will come under pressure if the group fails to renegotiate with lenders in April a new long-term covenant framework; if negotiations lead to substantial increases in interest costs; if an operational improvement does not appear in first-half 2009; or if we expect that cash burn is not going to be moderate in 2009, which could result if interest costs increase materially and operating trends deteriorate
 
Intanto, si aggiunge materiale nuovo, purtroppo per chi è ancora nei titoli di questo emittente... downgrade di due livelli di S&P, da B- a CCC/negative, per tutte le società del gruppo.

L'EBITDA di INEOS è letteralmente evaporato nel Q4/2008 e sarà molto difficile che la società si conservi cash flow positive nel 2009, anche ove azzerasse il capex ai livelli minimi per le manutenzioni e l'esercizio dell'attività aziendale.

Visto il forecast di una caduta durissima per il petrolchimico nel biennio 2009-2010, S&P postula che il peggio debba venire.

Escluse iniezioni di capitale da parte della proprietà e preclusa la strada della cessione di asset dalle condizioni di mercato e dalla stessa struttura proprietaria del gruppo, è molto probabile che ad aprile 2009 INEOS debba procedere ad una ristrutturazione del debito nel contesto della rinegoziazione dei covenant sul debito che ha in programma con le banche creditrici.

Ineos Group Ratings Cut To 'CCC' On Weak Market Conditions; Outlook Negative

PARIS (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 23, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it lowered to 'CCC' from 'B-' its long-term corporate credit rating on U.K.-based chemical group Ineos, which includes Ineos Group Holdings PLC, Ineos Holdings Ltd., Ineos Vinyls Finance PLC, and Ineos Vinyls Ltd. The outlook is negative.

"This reflects the unprecedented weak market conditions for petrochemical companies in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the weak outlook for 2009, which could result in severe liquidity pressure for Ineos as a result of its highly leveraged financial structure," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lucas Sevenin.

According to Ineos' unaudited preliminary information, reported EBITDA was negative €705 million for fourth-quarter 2008. Even adjusted for the one-time items, such as the inventory holding loss of about €1,005 million due to much lower oil prices, the adjusted fourth-quarter 2008 EBITDA reached only €300 million.

Ineos will have to renegotiate with lenders in April to obtain a
longer-term covenant framework. We see a risk that these negotiations could also include some debt restructuring. We expect Ineos to face very challenging operating trends in 2009 and 2010, given weaker economies and the petrochemical downturn.

Standard & Poor's expects Ineos' credit metrics to continue to weaken in 2009 and 2010 on weaker profits.

Ineos's reported net debt as of Dec. 31, 2008, was about €7.5 billion.
Reported net debt to adjusted EBITDA was about 4.6x. Free operating cash flow (FOCF) could turn negative in 2009, even if the group cuts capital expenditure to maintenance levels.

We are not assuming any equity injections or asset disposals as potentially offsetting factors, given the market conditions and
Ineos' ownership structure.

We view Ineos' business profile as weak, owing to material cyclicality,
commoditization, and competition in the industry. In addition, the company faced significant production issues in 2006 and 2007, while in 2008 the Grangemouth, U.K., strike and Hurricane Ike substantially negatively affected earnings.

"The negative outlook reflects our concerns about Ineos' liquidity given the various operating and financial risks it faces in 2009," said Mr. Sevenin. The ratings will come under pressure if the group fails to renegotiate with lenders in April a new long-term covenant framework; if negotiations lead to substantial increases in interest costs; if an operational improvement does not appear in first-half 2009; or if we expect that cash burn is not going to be moderate in 2009, which could result if interest costs increase materially and operating trends deteriorate

Purtroppo la loro struttura ed i loro costi assiemati alla obsolescenza degli impianti impongono di bruciare cassa + di quanto riescano a farne..ed in fase cosi' debole oggettivamente è grigia.
Hanno tali costi che comunque non riescono nemmeno a prendere fiato (in modo significativo) nemmeno dalla discesa repentina dei feedstocks (cosa che viene sfruttata adesso..vedi post ore 15.00) per cui a meno di un miracolo .. poi gli Inglesi (a parte le banche) hanno sempre (almeno a mia memoria) dimostrato di essere abbastanza serafici nei confronti delle industrie ergo se va va se non va, chiude.
 
Per gli amici che ancora detengono bond delle società del gruppo, mettiamo un attimo a fuoco il discorso del debito di Ineos in vista della rinegoziazione con le banche mirata ad evitare la rottura dei covenant ed il conseguente default tecnico.

Siamo al 17 novembre 2008. Ed Ineos va alla rinegoziazione dei covenant sul prestito senior per 7,62 mld euro accordato dalle banche 3 anni fa, all’epoca dell’acquisto di Innovene da BP. Si cerca di ottenere su queste clausole una moratoria per 2 trimestri, al prezzo di 80 mln euro di interessi incrementali da corrispondere alle banche in caso queste accettino le richieste di Ineos.

Dopo i risultati del Q1/2009 ad aprile 2009, superata l’attuale fase di destocking per cui i clienti tendono a contenere gli ordinativi e a ridurre le scorte in vista di future riduzioni dei volumi di produzione, ristabilizzatosi il livello degli ordini (verso il basso, si suppone) Ineos proporrà una soluzione di più lunga durata sulla gestione del debito al gruppo delle 400 banche ed istituzioni finanziarie prestatrici.

Uno dei covenant su cui viene chiesta la moratoria riguarda il livello di leverage, che dovrebbe attestarsi a quota 4,6x (net debt/EBITDA) per fine 2008, ma al quale Ineos (che è attualmente intorno al 4,0x) reputa potrebbe essere impossibilitata ad attenersi.

Merrill Lynch e Barclays hanno già dato il consenso, ma occorre quello dei 2/3 del valore del prestito sindacato.

A chi accetta verranno corrisposti quale 50 bp a titolo di fee più 100-125 bp di incremento dell’interesse corrisposto sul prestito. Il leveraged loan (che è secured, va rammentato) scambiava a metà novembre con un bid ask 48,5 – 51,5.

Ineos sostiene di poter disporre di 1,8 mld euro fra cash e linee di credito inutilizzate a fine settembre.

Una Reuters che riporta i dati esposti sopra…

RLPC-UPDATE 1-Ineos asks for waiver on 7.62 bln euro senior loan


Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:33am EST

By Tessa Walsh (Adds detail on covenant waivers, context, background)
LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Ineos Group [INEO.UL], the world's third-largest chemical group, said on Monday it had asked its banks for covenant waivers on billions of euros of senior loans until the end of May 2009.

Ineos reported earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) at 402 million euros ($508 million) in the third quarter, down from 504 million a year earlier as a volatile year for the chemical sector was compounded by the credit crunch.

Ineos saw third-quarter losses of 100 million euros on its 10 million-barrel oil reserve and a production loss of 15 million euros resulting from Hurricane Ike, and continues to feel the effects of a weak dollar.
"It has become clear that the entire industry is now facing a period of unprecedented market turmoil caused by the declining price environment and driven by general macro-economic uncertainty," said John Reece, Ineos's chief financial officer.

Ineos is seeking a temporary two-quarter waiver on two covenants that will increase the interest margins on its existing 7.62 billion euro loan, and is not seeking to refinance its long-term debt. Ineos's bonds are not affected.

The move, which could add an extra 80 million euros to Ineos's financing costs if all lenders agree, is a precursor to a more permanent covenant reset next April, according to the company.

Ineos is expecting to gain much-needed visibility in first-quarter trading that will allow a new business plan to be produced.

The existing covenants on Ineos's 7.62 billion euro leveraged loan were put in place in 2005 at the time of its acquisition of Innovene from British Petroleum. They envisaged that the chemicals sector would be rebounding after bottoming in 2007 and failed to predict the credit crunch.

Ineos's covenants are therefore tightening at a time when they need to loosen, according to Tom Crotty, Ineos's chief executive officer and John Reece, chief financial officer.

Net debt stood at 7.3 billion euros at the end of September and while Ineos has not yet breached its loan covenants, it is prudently looking ahead and seeking a two-quarter waiver to avoid breaching in the current situation, they added.

Severe customer de-stocking before the end of the year has created problems for short-term forecasting and Ineos is waiting for a more accurate market read in Q1 before seeking a more permanent solution.
"While this (destocking) reduces short-term visibility, we believe that the picture will become much clearer at the end of Q1 2009. We are therefore requesting covenant waivers from our senior banks for the period," he said.

Ineos will ask its 400-strong group of lenders to approve the waiver, which will give the company a holiday on two covenants - the leverage covenant and interest cover covenant.

The leverage covenant specified a ratio of 4.6 times EBITDA by the end of the year that Ineos is struggling to meet with a current ratio of four times debt to EBITDA and is also seeking to reset headroom on its interest cover covenant.

Ineos is not seeking relief on its debt service test, which is covered to the end of March, according to the company. The waiver needs the approval of two-thirds of its syndicate. Lead banks Barclays and Merril Lynch have already agreed the waiver.

Lenders that approve the changes will be offered a fee of 50 basis points (bps), and interest margins on the company's leveraged loan will be increased by 100-125 bps across its four tranches.

The secondary price of Ineos's euro-denominated loans was little moved on the news at 48.5-51.5 percent of face value. The company's bonds were slightly better bid at 22-24 percent of face value. The company said its liquidity profile was strong, with 1.8 billion euros of cash and undrawn credit facilities as of end-September. Revenue rose to 8.5 billion euros in the three months to end-September from 6.9 billion a year ago.
(Reporting by Tessa Walsh, additional reporting by Natalie Harrison and Jane Baird; Editing by Rupert Winchester)
 
Sempre in quei giorni (terza settimana di novembre 2008) altri dettagli sulla situazione di Ineos vengono da un articolo del Financial Times.


Si dà anche una enfasi diversa ai problemi della società, che sarebbe esposta a perdite sulle proprie riserve di oil, pari a circa 10 mln di barili, a causa della caduta dei prezzi dei prodotti petrolchimici, oltre che al deterioramento della domanda per i propri prodotti proveniente da due comparti merceologici quali l’housing e l’automotive.


Si precisa che ad aprile Ineos presenterà un business plan quinquennale in virtù del quale richiederà una cancellazione dei covenant contrattuali sul più lungo termine, prendendo in considerazione la possibilità di vendere asset per ridurre il leverage.

Ineos requests covenant waivers from its banks

By John O'Doherty and Anousha Sakoui
Published: November 18 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 18 2008 02:00
Ineos, Britain's largest private company, has been forced to seek a waiver on its banking covenants to avoid a potential breach of those terms. The highly indebted chemicals group is struggling with a loss on its large inventory of oil following the decline in petrochemicals prices. It is also feeling the knock-on effects of a rapid deterioration in the housing and automotive sectors, two big users of its products.

Tom Crotty, chief executive, said: "We've seen demand falling off across the whole portfolio of chemical products without exception. That coupled with the oil price shift has led to a short-term inventory holding loss."
He said the company had decided to "go to our banks now and ask for a waiver [of our covenants] for the next two quarters while we wait for the mists to clear".

The covenants Ineos wants waived test leverage, interest cover and debt servicing. Ineos's debt is four times its earnings before interest, taxation and amortisation, but the company's management indicated covenants would be in breach if the multiple rose to 4.6.

The company will present a five-year business plan to its lenders by April, when it will ask for a longer-term reset of covenants. Ineos has indicated that if necessary it would consider selling assets to lower the leverage.

So far, Merrill Lynch and Barclays, the company's main relationship banks, have agreed to the terms of the covenant waivers. Ineos is now seeking approval from two-thirds of its 230-strong syndicate, aided by Lazard.

It is offering lenders a fee of 50 basis points plus an increase in the interest by 100 to 125 basis points.

Ineos became the world's third-largest chemicals group - with about $44bn (£29bn) in annual turnover - after its acquisition of BP's chemicals business Innovene in 2005.

It has €7.3bn (£6.1bn) in net debt and is the largest issuer of high-yield debt in Europe. However, the company does have some breathing room - the first tranche of this debt is only due in 2012.

Ineos makes a wide variety of chemicals, the principal feedstock for which is naphtha, a derivative of petroleum. As oil prices rose in 2008, Ineos was only able to pass on some of this increase to customers, resulting in a squeeze on margins. As a result, while revenues for the third quarter rose 23 per cent to €8.5bn, Ebitda was 20 per cent lower at €402m.

Critically, the sudden reduction in oil prices has now made a large dent in the value of the company's oil inventory of 10m barrels.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
 
Agli inizi di dicembre 2008, la trattativa fra Ineos e banche vede emergere sulla stampa alcune posizioni negoziali.

Secondo indiscrezioni riprese dalla Reuters e provenienti dal gruppo di banche che detengono il senior loan di Ineos, sarà necessario avere “più fee e meno margine di violazione dei covenant” per accordare a Ineos la moratoria richiesta.

Ineos ha offerto una fee di 50 bp e 100-125 bp di incremento dell’interesse sul prestito, mentre le banche chiedono almeno altri 50 bp aggiuntivi sia per la fee che per l’extra interesse da accordare sul senior loan.

Attesa inoltre ad aprile una rinegoziazione dei covenant esistenti in senso da vincolare Ineos alla riduzione del CAPEX nonché da ridurre le management fees che le società operative del gruppo corrispondono alla holding finanziaria Ineos Capital.

D’altronde, sul capital expenditure Ineos aveva già anticipato i propri progetti all’insegna di una drastica riduzione almeno per il 2009.

Fra i nuovi covenant, uno riguarderà i livelli di cash che la società dovrà detenere in conseguenza delle variazioni del valore del magazzino.

Ineos asked to pay up for loan covenant waiver


Tue Dec 2, 2008 7:20am EST

By Tessa Walsh
LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Investors are asking Ineos Group to pay up in return for passing the company's request for a two-quarter holiday from its loan covenants, to avoid a breach, bankers and investors said on Tuesday.

"The general consensus is that more fee and less covenant relaxation is required," a leading institutional investor said.
Ineos Group, the world's third-largest chemicals group, asked its bankers to grant a temporary waiver in mid-November before a full covenant reset next April.

By that stage, the company expects to have better visibility with regard to its business, which has been hit by customer destocking.
Ineos offered its investors a fee of 50 basis points and a 100-125 increase on the interest margin on its 7.62 billion euro loan to pass the waiver, but investors are taking a tougher line and want at least another 50 basis points to agree the changes.

"Ineos' waiver will get through but not in its current form. One way or another, the company will have to pony up another 50 bps either in upfront fee or margin, which will get people there," a leading institutional investor said.

Ineos management has spent the last ten days meeting investors since launching the waiver request, which requires majority consent in order to be passed by the company's 200-plus bank syndicate on Dec. 9.
"Investors have raised some points on the terms of the consent request and Ineos' management are presently considering those terms," a banker close to the waiver said.

The pushback from investors is being attributed to the high proportion of U.S. investors in Ineos' syndicate, who are accustomed to higher margins and fees on leveraged loans, rather than specific credit issues with the company or problems with its plans.

Bankers close to the deal, however, said that investors had also asked for a backstop facility that would allow lenders to take action, if required, within the two-quarter covenant holiday period.

Ineos' lead banks, Barclays and Merrill Lynch, said that the waiver request had been well received and investors are willing to give the company the time it needs to come up with its new business plan next year.

"The feedback to date is constructive and the syndicate fully understands that time is needed to come up with a longer term plan to reset the covenant levels. Investors are working to understand all the credit issues," a spokesperson for the banks' said.
Ineos' full covenant reset in April is expected to include a general tightening of existing loan covenants to prevent any further cash leakage from the business and the insertion of some new covenants, sources said.

Changes to existing covenants are expected to focus on restricting management fees to Ineos Capital and funds for capital expenditure.
New covenants linked to working capital will be added which include definitions of minimum cash to be held on balance sheet following adjustments for inventory changes, they added. (Reporting by Tessa Walsh; editing by Simon Jessop)
 
Siamo al 5 dicembre 2008: Ineos rialza la propria offerta alle banche ed ottiene la moratoria sui covenant del debito, senza la quale sarebbe andata in default già a fine dicembre 2008. I termini indicati nella Reuters in fondo sono quelli accettati dalle banche

Ineos rivede al rialzo la propria offerta alle banche creditrici mirata ad ottenere una rinuncia temporanea a fare valere alcune condizioni previste nei contratti di finanziamento dei loan accordati a suo tempo.

L’onere aggiuntivo in termini di interessi da corrispondere annualmente sui loans sale dai preventivati 80 mln euro a importi nell’ordine dei 100 mln euro.

Le indiscrezioni raccolte da Reuters danno per certa l’approvazione del waiver nella votazione fra i 200 finanziatori che si terrà il prossimo 9 dicembre.

Ove esso fosse rifiutato, Ineos sarebbe in default tecnico in poche settimane, sebbene disponga di liquidità adeguata al servizio del debito nel breve termine, avendo dichiarato di disporre di cash ed equivalenti per 1 mld euro, per violazione del covenant sui livelli massimi di leverage tollerabile dai suoi creditori.

Per i conti del quarter in essere, pur avendo richiesto una sospensione del leverage covenant, Ineos testerà la tenuta di un net debt/EBITDA nell’ordine del 5,25x, contro l’attuale 4,6x (ed un valore previsto, se non rammento male, a quota 4,0x dal covenant di cui si chiede la sospensione).


RLPC-Ineos pays up and adds covenant to clear loan waiver

Wed Dec 3, 2008 2:26pm EST

By Tessa Walsh

LONDON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Ineos Group [INEOSP.UL] has given in to investors' demands and improved the terms on a key waiver to its 7.62 billion euros ($9.63 billion) leveraged loan that will allow the company to avoid breaching covenants, banking sources said on Wednesday,

Ineos Group, the world's third-largest chemicals group, has boosted the interest margin and added a new covenant to assuage investors' concerns about increased risk as the chemicals sector confronts an unprecedented slump, they added.

Ineos Group asked its bankers to grant a temporary waiver in mid-November and give a two-quarter covenant holiday that would give Ineos greater visibility after first quarter trading to produce a new business plan and permanently reset its loan covenants.

Ineos is now offering an additional margin payment of 175-225 basis points (bps) above its existing loan margin as opposed to the 100-125 bps originally offered.

The move will substantially increase the company's borrowing costs and Ineos will now pay considerably more than the 80 million euros estimated cost of the original proposal.

If the waiver is passed, the company will pay 400 bps on its term loan A and revolving credit, 450 bps on its term loan B, 500 bps on its term loan C and 600 bps on its second lien loan.

Ineos has also introduced a 5.25 times leverage test for the end of the year that has been adjusted to reflect customer destocking.

The covenant was added in response to investors' concerns that no covenants would apply in the next six months during a period of heightened risk as the company readies its new business plan.

"Investors want a guideline and benchmark in the sand for performance," a banker close to the waiver said.
Ineos' debt service covenant has been left in place and will be tested on March 2009. The company has a strong cash position with around one billion euros of cash on the balance sheet and was never in danger of payment default, bankers close to the deal said.

"Ineos was not anywhere near to payment default, the covenants when written never envisaged this kind of market disintegration. Ineos has enough cash to service its debt and will continue to do so," a banker close to the waiver said.

Ineos 200-plus syndicate are now expected to approve the changes to the waiver, which will be voted on on December 9.

"We're highly confident that this is going to get done now," the banker close to the waiver said.

Ineos was not immediately available for comment. (Reporting by Tessa Walsh; Editing by Hans Peters)
 
Francamente, oltre alla conoscenza anche da molto vicino che ho avuto con loro, (no non ho lavorato per loro), leggendo questi post inviati da Mark, vedendo il contesto operativo in cui ci si deve muovere nei prossimi mesi ... dove (divagando..) ci sono banche e company che hanno noleggiato supertanker, riempite di crude e lasciate al largo in attesa di un rialzo dell' oil...! quindi, intendo dire una situazione da disperati, francamente sono decisamente pessimista..
Si potrebbero salvare (o meglio: forse prolungare l' agonia..) se e solo se i corsi del petrolio salissero che so'? almeno fino 60 forse 70 $ barile...
Dovrebbero procedere una riduzione fortissima di tutti i rami improduttivi.. pero' anche in questo caso necessitano le risorse.. erano cose che andavano fatte prima..tipo tagliare la Vinyls, l' abs, (elettrodom fatti cina, inutile pensarne la prosecuzione qua ma non solo questo) nn comprare il polistirolo (era morto ancora prima di pensarne l' acquisto..ho in mente qualche collega che già da anni lamenta un calo costante nella vendita di questo polimero..)... Il petrolio che certo nn ha dato una mano..
 

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