Imark
Forumer storico
Postilo, postilo...![]()
Intanto, si aggiunge materiale nuovo, purtroppo per chi è ancora nei titoli di questo emittente... downgrade di due livelli di S&P, da B- a CCC/negative, per tutte le società del gruppo.
L'EBITDA di INEOS è letteralmente evaporato nel Q4/2008 e sarà molto difficile che la società si conservi cash flow positive nel 2009, anche ove azzerasse il capex ai livelli minimi per le manutenzioni e l'esercizio dell'attività aziendale.
Visto il forecast di una caduta durissima per il petrolchimico nel biennio 2009-2010, S&P postula che il peggio debba venire.
Escluse iniezioni di capitale da parte della proprietà e preclusa la strada della cessione di asset dalle condizioni di mercato e dalla stessa struttura proprietaria del gruppo, è molto probabile che ad aprile 2009 INEOS debba procedere ad una ristrutturazione del debito nel contesto della rinegoziazione dei covenant sul debito che ha in programma con le banche creditrici.
Ineos Group Ratings Cut To 'CCC' On Weak Market Conditions; Outlook Negative
PARIS (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 23, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it lowered to 'CCC' from 'B-' its long-term corporate credit rating on U.K.-based chemical group Ineos, which includes Ineos Group Holdings PLC, Ineos Holdings Ltd., Ineos Vinyls Finance PLC, and Ineos Vinyls Ltd. The outlook is negative.
"This reflects the unprecedented weak market conditions for petrochemical companies in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the weak outlook for 2009, which could result in severe liquidity pressure for Ineos as a result of its highly leveraged financial structure," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lucas Sevenin.
According to Ineos' unaudited preliminary information, reported EBITDA was negative €705 million for fourth-quarter 2008. Even adjusted for the one-time items, such as the inventory holding loss of about €1,005 million due to much lower oil prices, the adjusted fourth-quarter 2008 EBITDA reached only €300 million.
Ineos will have to renegotiate with lenders in April to obtain a
longer-term covenant framework. We see a risk that these negotiations could also include some debt restructuring. We expect Ineos to face very challenging operating trends in 2009 and 2010, given weaker economies and the petrochemical downturn.
Standard & Poor's expects Ineos' credit metrics to continue to weaken in 2009 and 2010 on weaker profits.
Ineos's reported net debt as of Dec. 31, 2008, was about €7.5 billion.
Reported net debt to adjusted EBITDA was about 4.6x. Free operating cash flow (FOCF) could turn negative in 2009, even if the group cuts capital expenditure to maintenance levels.
We are not assuming any equity injections or asset disposals as potentially offsetting factors, given the market conditions and
Ineos' ownership structure.
We view Ineos' business profile as weak, owing to material cyclicality,
commoditization, and competition in the industry. In addition, the company faced significant production issues in 2006 and 2007, while in 2008 the Grangemouth, U.K., strike and Hurricane Ike substantially negatively affected earnings.
"The negative outlook reflects our concerns about Ineos' liquidity given the various operating and financial risks it faces in 2009," said Mr. Sevenin. The ratings will come under pressure if the group fails to renegotiate with lenders in April a new long-term covenant framework; if negotiations lead to substantial increases in interest costs; if an operational improvement does not appear in first-half 2009; or if we expect that cash burn is not going to be moderate in 2009, which could result if interest costs increase materially and operating trends deteriorate