Una anticipazione di Fitch rispetto al più generale report semestrale sull'andamento dell'attività industriale in area EMEA riguarda il comparto della chimica, che l'agenzia segnala in leggera ripresa rispetto ai minimi del H1/2009 e per il quale postula una stabilizzazione dei livelli produttivi al di sopra di quelli segnati nella prima metà del 2009, ma senza crescita ulteriore per l'intero 2010.
In particolare, colpita pesantemente sarà la petrolchimica, il segmento delle plastiche, la chimica di base dei materiali inorganici, mentre i settori difensivi (chimica per l'alimentazione, agrochimica, chimica farmaceutica, gas industriali) consentiranno performance migliori.
Con l'attestarsi della produzione su livelli leggermente superiori a quelli del primo semestre 2009, resterà alta la pressione sui rating degli emittenti del comparto, giacché l'andamento dei prezzi a propria volta non aiuta.
Fitch: EMEA Chemicals Sector Shows Early Signs of Stability, Negative Rating Pressure Remains High
14 Jul 2009 6:47 AM (EDT) Fitch Ratings-London/Frankfurt/Moscow-14 July 2009: In advance of its forthcoming mid-year EMEA Industrials sector outlook update, Fitch Ratings says that whilst negative rating pressure remains high for its rated EMEA Chemicals issuers, there are some initial signs of low-level stabilisation for the sector, as evidenced by limited re-opening of plants and production lines, and sequential upticks in production over recent months.
"While most sub-sectors are now expected to experience an improvement in production compared to H109, Fitch believes underlying demand will stabilize in 2010 rather than show a swift upward trend", says Oliver Kroemker, Associate Director in Fitch's Industrials group. "Due to the slump in demand from downstream markets, petrochemicals, plastics and basic inorganic chemicals are among the worst hit sub-sectors in H109'," he added.
Six of Fitch's 14 publicly rated chemical issuers have a negative rating outlook, illustrating the potential for further negative rating action. Fitch's rating actions on private shadow-rated leveraged chemical companies were almost evenly divided between affirmations and downgrades in H109. As of end-June 2009, 65% of shadow ratings had a negative outlook or Rating Watch Negative (RWN), reflecting the increased vulnerability of leveraged chemical players to the downturn.
In Russia, OJSC Kazanorgsintez ('C'/'C'/RWN) continues to face severe liquidity and refinancing issues as a result of deteriorating market conditions in combination with the high leverage and a substantial debt burden. Fitch expects that OAO Nizhnekamskneftekhim's (B/B/RWN) operating performance and credit profile will be materially impacted by the chemicals downturn in FY09, which in turn could pose liquidity challenges in the near term. With the exception of these two Russian producers, liquidity risk is low and debt maturity schedules should remain manageable for the majority of publically rated EMEA issuers.
Fitch notes that during H109 a number of chemicals issuers have tapped the debt capital markets or issued private placements (e.g. German Schuldscheindarlehen) to refinance 2009 maturities, extend their debt maturity profile or bolster liquidity. Asset disposals were rare given the depressed environment, overcapacities and poor pricing.
Also, cash preservation measures adopted by producers in response to the crisis have been continued or even broadened in H109 as companies have intensified their focus on cost-cutting programmes, selective capex spending and reduced shareholder distributions. On the operational side, chemicals producers have adjusted production by reducing operating capacity via temporarily idling, mothballing projects or permanent shutdowns, while focussing on working capital optimization.
Fitch expects the sharp drop in chemical volumes and prices y-o-y to result in a material deterioration in margins and operating earnings across the sector. Short-term cash flow generation is supported by lower working capital requirements, although this was a one-off effect in early 2009 and is not expected to be sustainable. Portfolio diversification and exposure to more defensive markets, such as fine chemicals (consumer chemicals, pharma, and nutrition), agro-chemicals (seeds and traits, crop protection with reservations) and industrial gases should limit the downside risk to earnings.
For petrochemical producers, weak demand will be compounded by competition from substantial new low-cost capacity coming on stream in the Middle East and Asia later this year and in 2010
