Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa

[Imark]

Ineos upgradata da S&P dopo il reset sui covenant sul leverage... passa a rating CCC+/negative...

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Ineos Group Upgraded To 'CCC+' On Successful Covenant Reset; Outlook Negative[/FONT]

• U.K.-based Ineos Group successfully reset covenants on July 15, 2009, reducing the likelihood of debt restructuring in the short term.
• We are raising our long-term corporate credit rating on Ineos from 'CCC' to 'CCC+'.
• Covenant compliance, debt amortization, and operating trends will remain challenging from 2010, in our view.
• The negative outlook reflects our views that the rating may come under pressure if operating trends do not continue to improve, if covenant compliance becomes a concern, if some debt restructuring appears, or if potential asset sales do not materialize.

PARIS (Standard & Poor's) July 28, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it raised its long-term corporate credit rating on U.K.-based chemical group Ineos to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. The outlook is negative. The Ineos group includes Ineos Group Holdings PLC, Ineos Holdings Ltd., Ineos Vinyls Finance PLC, and Ineos Vinyls Ltd.

"The upgrade reflects the group's successful covenant reset, and the resulting very low likelihood that it will need to undertake a debt restructuring in the short term. Short-term liquidity has hence improved," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lucas Sevenin.

In our current scenario, however, complying with covenants and meeting its significant debt amortization schedule will continue to remain challenging for Ineos, especially from first-quarter 2010. Operating trends and profit volatility may also add additional pressure. We expect liquidity to remain the main rating driver.

The ratings remain constrained by Ineos' highly leveraged financial profile, and liquidity that remains subject to covenant compliance in coming quarters.

The negative outlook reflects our concerns about Ineos' liquidity given the various operating and financial risks it faces in 2009 and 2010. The ratings will come under pressure if operating trends deteriorate compared with the second quarter, if covenant compliance becomes an issue, if some debt restructuring appears or becomes necessary, or if potential asset sales do not materialize.

 

[Imark]

Sempre su Ineos, riporto anche questa azione di Moody's, che indica alcuni dettagli sul tipo di accordi in renegoziazione tra Ineos e le banche, oltre a dare dettagli sulla situazione della liquidità.


[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's affirms Caa2 corporate family rating of Ineos, upgrades notes to Caa3.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 30 July 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed the Caa2 Corporate Family Rating of Ineos Group Holdings plc ("Ineos" or the "company") and upgraded the underlying Probability of Default rating to Caa1 from Caa2 and the ratings assigned to its senior notes to Caa3 from Ca, as detailed below. The outlook on the ratings is stable. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The absolute size of the liabilities and the substantial cash debt service obligations remain one of the main factors underpinning the decision to affirm the current corporate family rating. However,

Moody's has upgraded to Caa1 the probability of default rating as a result of Ineos' recent agreement with its senior lenders of a new set of financial covenants and other conditions that are designed to accommodate the expected weakness in the cash flow generation during the next 18 months, allowing some covenant headroom in light of possible near-term volatility. The projected level of covenants is underpinned by the expectation of some recovery in volumes across the chemicals portfolio, while margins are likely to remain weak pending structural adjustments in capacity expected at the trough.

Moody's notes that the company has reported a gradual improvement in the level of weekly orders and capacity utilization during the first half of 2009 suggesting a potential recovery in volumes in line with the assumptions. These considerations, together with taking into account the forecast liquidity profile, is the basis for Moody's assessment that default risk has reduced leading to the one notch upgrade of the Probability of Default rating to Caa1 at this time. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The Caa2 corporate family rating also reflects a degree of uncertainty with regard to the potential recovery in chemicals margins expected in 2011 and beyond, to be sustained by timely rationalization in chemicals capacity in Europe and US, particularly in polyolefins, as well as the overall recovery in economic growth and demand for durable goods supporting projected improvements in intermediates.

Moody's notes that the amended lending terms anticipate gradual deleveraging through improvement in earnings and reduction in debt, as well as additional requirement to reduce senior debt by EUR 700 m by 2012. We note the company's commentary regarding potential disposals that could support such future debt repayment, as well as the relatively low valuations prevailing at the moment.

Overall, the execution risk of the business plan remains relatively high and depends on the timing of the sustained economic recovery. In the medium term, the Caa2 Corporate Family Rating therefore reflects Moody's expectation of lower family recovery rates during the cyclical downturn underpinned by lower market valuations of chemicals assets in trough conditions. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the group will continue to maintain its compliance with the new financial covenants and to maintain an adequate liquidity position over the medium term.

At the end of 1Q 2009, the group reported a EUR 563 million cash balance and a further EUR 16 million in availability under its EUR 800 million working capital facility. The liquidity position is also supported by the accounts receivable securitization facility.

Effective cash management remains one of the key considerations for the management in the downturn, while the amended covenant package also includes an additional liquidity provision, requiring Ineos to maintain a minimum EUR 200 million cash balance. Moody's expects that over the near term the company will broadly remain at least cash flow breakeven after debt service[/FONT]

 

[Imark]

Linde: il secondo trimestre non è andato bene in termini di vendite, nonostante il sottocomparto della chimica in cui operano i tedeschi, quello dei gas industriali e medicali, sia considerato fra i meno ciclici nell'ambito della chimica.

Linde pronostica un miglioramento dell'andamento delle vendite nel secondo semestre dell'anno, senza che tuttavia si riesca ad eguagliare i risultati del 2008, un anno di crescita record per la società, obiettivo indicato in precedenti forecast per il 2009.

Tuttavia anche per Linde l'enfasi rimane sul taglio dei costi per recuperare profittevolezza, in una fase di debolezza del fatturato che dovrebbe proseguire.

• AUGUST 3, 2009, 4:25 A.M. ET

UPDATE: Linde 2Q Net Pft -38%; Sees '09 Sales, Earnings Drop


(Rewrites.)
By Natascha Divac
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--German industrial gases and engineering company Linde AG (LIN.XE) Monday reported a milder-than-expected 38% decline in second-quarter net profit, but clarified that it now expects its 2009 sales and earnings will fall below those of 2008.

"Future global economic developments are beset with uncertainty, and the crisis is not yet over," the company said. "Against this background, we will be unable to achieve in the 2009 financial year the same level of sales and earnings achieved in 2008, a record year. However, provided that the economic recovery stabilises, we expect a better business development in the second half of 2009 than in the first six months."

For 2008, Linde had posted EUR2.56 billion in operating profit and EUR12.66 billion in sales.

Chief Executive Wolfgang Reitzle said in May that the previous positive scenario of reaching sales and profit around last year's level had become increasingly less likely given downward revisions to economic forecasts.

Linde said Monday its net profit for the second quarter of this year fell to EUR133 million from EUR215 million in the same period a year ago, beating analysts' expectations of EUR119 million. The previous year's second-quarter net profit was boosted by growth in Linde's engineering and gases divisions, and partly by lower taxes after asset sales.

Sales in the second quarter of this year fell to EUR2.78 billion from EUR3.34 billion in the year-earlier period, falling short of analyst expectations of EUR2.82 billion.

Second-quarter operating profit fell to EUR566 million from EUR656 million in the year-earlier period, beating analysts' expectations of EUR560 million.

The earnings were better than expected, a Frankfurt-based trader said. While the outlook is slightly negative, it shouldn't surprise investors too much, as it was already indicated earlier in the year, he said.

Linde said that its gas business - its strongest earnings and sales contributor - saw second-quarter sales drop to EUR2.19 billion from EUR2.41 billion in the year-earlier period.

Second-quarter operating profit for Linde's gas business fell to EUR592 million from EUR608 million in the equivalent period of 2008. The company said the division in the full-year 2009 won't be able to reach the 2008 sales and earnings level. However, it expects an improvement in the business in the second half, pointing to the first signs of an economic recovery.

To weather the economic downturn, Linde in May pledged to accelerate the implementation of its cost-cutting program, which aims for cuts of between EUR650 million and EUR800 million over the next four years.

 

[Imark]

La trimestrale di Rhodia in questo report di Jyske. La società si è difesa decorosamente nel Q2/2009, pur essendo esposta ad alcuni dei comparti più ciclici della chimica ed ha mostrato in anni recenti di essere abbastanza ben gestita.

Mi raccomando, come sempre: attingere i dati da questi report e lasciare perdere le raccomandazioni di acquisto e di vendita, che vi conviene formarvi per conto vostro, considerando peraltro che questi signori fanno trading proprietario sui CDS degli emittenti, e sono pertanto in conflitto di interessi.

 

[lorenzo63]

DSM to Cut Costs as Net Sinks 95%

4 agosto 09
In sintesi: stanno/hanno tagliato costi a tutto spiano...il net profit è di soli 10 mio euro da 192 anno prec - secondo loro il customer destocking è terminato quindi dovrebbero riprendere a lavorare; tagliano almeno 1250 posti; dovranno raggiungere almeno 125mio euro di risparmi sui costi (?!); LA divisione Material Science, secondo un analista Fortis (quella salvata.....chissà perchè nn hanno utilizzato il loro acume per loro medesimi) è andata un po' meglio di quanto previsto; La divisione nutrizione leggermente al di sotto; la divisione pharma - deludente-


AMSTERDAM -- Chemicals company DSM NV raised its cost-savings target after reporting a 95% decline in second-quarter net profit, but said customer destocking was now largely over.

The Netherlands-based company said net profit in the three months ended June 30 was €10 million ($14.4 million), down from €192 million a year earlier. Total revenue fell 20% to €1.95 billion from €2.46 billion.

The company, which produces chemicals for the nutrition, pharmaceutical and materials industries among others, said it will achieve more than the €125 million cost savings target it had for 2010.

"The cost savings will be several tens of millions euros higher," said Chief Financial Officer Rolf-Dieter Schwalb.

Part of the move will involve cutting 1,250 jobs. Almost 500 had been cut by the end of the second quarter, leaving DSM with a workforce of 23,017.

The results are mixed, Fortis Bank Netherlands analyst Mark van der Geest said. The results at the Materials Sciences unit were better than he expected, while those at Nutrition were "slightly below" and the Pharma division was "disappointing."

DSM's board chairman Feike Sijbesma said the company has no intention of pursuing major acquisitions in the short term although it may consider smaller buys. Mr. Sijbesma said the company's focus remains on cash, adding that cash flow from operating activities increased to €433 million in the first half of 2009 from €281 million a year ago.

 

[lorenzo63]

Braskem e Pequiven Venezuela

Stesso problema che ha afflitto tempo addietro altri player: eccesso di capacità rispetto alla domanda per cui la profittevolezza di simili investimenti viene a mancare, ovviamente.
Oltre a questo vi è da tenere presente che saranno sempre piu' le green plastic, sebbene risicate nella quantità, a fare la diferenza per quotazioni e visibilità.

7 ago 2009
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazilian petrochemicals company Braskem SA (BAK) has decided to delay for up to two years its joint projects with Venezuelan state-run counterpart Pequiven, local newspaper Valor Economico reported Friday.

The decision was taken "in order to negotiate a better package for financing and purchase of equipment," said Roberto Ramos, Braskem's vice president, in an exclusive interview with the newspaper.

Both companies have plans to invest a total of $4.5 billion in a joint venture called Propisul to produce polypropylene and polyethylene. The start of operations will be delayed to 2013 from 2011, Ramos said.

The executive said that the planned investment may also be revised downward.

Ramos said the delay was decided jointly by Braskem and Pequiven because of declining demand for plastics due to the global crisis

 

[lorenzo63]

Mamma BASF..2Q Net Pft -74%; Sees No Improvement For 2H

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Chemicals company BASF SE (BAS.XE) Thursday cut its full-year outlook after second-quarter net profit fell 74% on the year, and says it sees no lasting improvement this year.

As a result, the company expects a significant decline in sales and earnings in 2009 and says it's unlikely to earn its cost of capital back this year. Previously it said sales and earnings would be below the 2008 level.

For the quarter ending June 30, the company saw net profit of EUR343 million compared with EUR1.3 billion a year earlier. Analysts had expected net profit of EUR379 million.

Sales for the period dropped 23.3% to EUR12.5 billion from EUR16.31 billion a year earlier, meeting analysts' estimates of EUR12.45 billion.

Sales of chemicals and plastics declined during the quarter due to weak demand from key customers in the auto and construction industries. The oil and gas business was hurt by lower gas sales volumes and the weaker oil price.

Agricultural sales and earnings improved slightly year-over-year, helped by higher prices in North America and Europe and by positive currency effects.

Ciba, the Swiss chemicals maker which BASF acquired in April and was included in the results for the first time, boosted sales by 5% - but posted an operating loss.

Chief Financial Officer Kurt Bock said in a statement that he sees no signs of a sustained upturn despite signs of stabilization at a low level.

"There is still the danger of another painful setback due to overcapacities, bankruptcies and growing unemployment," he said.

BASF attributed the its more gloomy outlook to the global economic situation and costs related to the company's integration of Ciba.

BASF now expects non-cash costs of EUR500 million, but said the figure will depend on the number of sites to be closed. The company previously said it is considering restructuring, selling or closing 23 of the 55 former Ciba production sites worldwide.

It also confirmed cash costs totaling approximately EUR550 million, about EUR150 million in 2009. Restructuring plans include a reduction of some 3,700 positions by 2013, the majority eliminated by the end of 2010.

BASF expects to realize synergies of at least EUR400 million annually beginning in 2012.

One trader said earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, for the quarter came in more than 10% below analysts' expectations, at EUR1.58 billion compared with a forecast of EUR1.75 billion.

BASF shares were down 4.1% Thursday in pre-market trade. The stock closed Wednesday at EUR34.81. So far this year, the shares have gained nearly 25% of their value, outperforming the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Chemicals Index, which gained about 10%. The stock is down 16% from year-ago levels, however

 

[lorenzo63]

Sempre BASF

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--German chemical giant BASF SE (BAS.XE) is looking at ways to further reduce its cyclicality and make progress in the integration of Switzerland's Ciba, BASF management board member John Feldmann said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.

Even if BASF misses its annual goal of achieving returns to match its cost of capital in 2009, the company has already reduced its cyclicality to some extent, Feldmann said. He added that it would be the exception if BASF were to miss its goal this year.

The Ludwighafen-based company also plans to optimize its cost structure to increase flexibility through measures such as inventory reductions.

"We're reviewing whether the high number of products is necessary in all the units, or if we can do with fewer products," Feldmann said.

Uncertainty remains as to how the second half will progress, he said. "We don't have the visibility to estimate how business will develop in the coming months." However, he said the second half is traditionally worse than the first half at BASF.

BASF also plans to quickly integrate chemical company Ciba, which it acquired in 2009 for EUR3.8 billion and added to its performance products segment at the beginning of July.

"The different company cultures are a big topic" in the integration process, he said. While BASF has a largely regional business organization, Ciba is more centralized.

Ciba's production portfolio is also set to be streamlined.

"We see that some of Ciba's products no longer have specialty status in the market," Feldmann said, and the firm is tasked with determining whether the width of the product portfolio is still needed for those products that are now categorized as standard products.

"We have to review whether all these products are still profitable in the long term or if there are product lines that are uncompetitive and that can be eliminated in the medium term," Feldmann said.

In 23 of Ciba's 55 production sites around the world, BASF is reviewing options such as sales, restructurings or closures. It aims to make a decision on each one by the end of the first quarter of 2010, but implementation will take longer.

"We will have production relocations, and for this we must set up investment plans - that needs time," the manager said.

According to Feldmann, all of Ciba's customers are likely to stay. "Currently, it looks as if we'll continue to have the same market share as Ciba," Feldmann said.

The manager expects that BASF will reach the envisaged synergy potential of at least EUR400 million a year by 2012. "From my point of view, EUR400 million is the minimum that we can achieve, to run the business profitably," he said.

However, with the integration of Ciba, BASF's Performance Products segment is still not ideally positioned, Feldmann said. "There are certain sectors from which I believe that we could gain a stronger global positioning."

 

[Imark]

Moody's afferma con outlook negativo Dow Chemical, in occasione del lancio di due nuovi bond a durata 3 e 6 anni. In realtà, se Dow non avrà successo nel cedere asset o cmq nell'effettuare altre operazioni idonee a ridurre il leverage mediante un abbattimento del debito sotto i 15 mld $ entro il 2010 e se il suo EBITDA sarà significativamente sotto i 5,5 mld $ nel 2009 ed i 6,3 mld $ nel 2010, l'agenzia postula di ridurre il rating a livello speculativo.

I due bond emessi recano sollievo sul versante della duration del debito, consentendo di ripagare debito bancario in scandenza ravvicinata, e tuttavia le ulteriori scadenze debitorie di qui al 2011 sono tali per cui, senza un'adeguato deleverage, il livello di debito corto facente capo a Dow resterebbe superiore ai parametri occorrenti alla conservazione dell'IG.


[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's rates Dow's notes Baa3; outlook negative[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]New York, August 04, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service assigned Baa3 ratings to the three and six year unsecured notes to be issued by The Dow Chemical Company (Dow). The rating outlook is negative. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Dow's Baa3 rating reflects its weak credit profile subsequent to the Rohm and Haas acquisition, and the expectation that Dow will continue to reduce balance sheet debt to below $15 billion before the end of 2010.

Additionally, based on Dow's second quarter results it appears likely that pro forma EBITDA should easily exceed $5 billion, despite weak operating environments in North America and Europe. The Baa3 rating specifically incorporates the expectation of additional asset sales in 2009 to further reduce debt. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"The term-out of additional debt by Dow is a modest credit positive as it will reduce outstandings under the bridge loan and revolver. Dow still has enough debt maturities prior to 2011 and callable debt to reduce its balance sheet debt below the threshold required to maintain an investment grade rating," stated John Rogers, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investors Service. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The negative outlook reflects the execution risk associated with Dow's de-leveraging plan, given the current operating environment.

If, at any point, Moody's believes that Dow will be unable to reduce its balance sheet debt to below $15 billion by the end of 2010 or if the combined companies' EBITDA were to fall meaningfully below $5.5 billion in 2009 or $6.3 billion in 2010 (these numbers exclude Moody's standard adjustments and do not include future synergies), Moody's could lower Dow's rating.

If Dow is able to de-lever faster than anticipated or monetizes over $10 billion in assets, Moody's could move the rating outlook to stable within the next 12 months. [/FONT]


[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Ratings assigned: [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Dow Chemical Company (The) [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Notes, at Baa3 [/FONT]


[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action on The Dow Chemical Company was on April 22, 2009 when Moody's lowered Dow ratings to Baa3 with a negative outlook due to the acquisition of Rohm and Haas. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The Dow Chemical Company (Dow) is one of the largest chemical companies in the world, it has global leading positions in a broad array of chemicals, including ethylene, styrene, polystyrene, styrene-butadiene latex, polyurethanes, epoxies, and chlor alkalis, and many specialty chemicals and materials. The April acquisition of Rohm and Haas greatly expands the company's presence in acrylic chemistry, coating resins and electronic chemicals. [/FONT]

 

[Imark]

S&P conferma il rating di DSM e l'outlook stabile nonostante una trimestrale quale l'ultima diffusa, non certo positiva. Ciò in considerazione del basso livello dell'indebitamento complessivo (basso al punto che S&P stima che il livello del funds from operations possa conservarsi pari al 45% del debito per i 24 mesi a venire, da cui la conferma di rating con l'outlook stabile) nonostante il calo del fatturato.

Giova all'emittente anche l'aver confermato di voler continuare a perseguire una politica finanziaria e di bilancio conservativa, che porti a nuove acquisizioni solo dopo cessioni di asset, a dividendi commisurati ai flussi di cassi, ecc.

Naturalmente, ove il management dovesse contraddire nei fatti queste indicazioni, i comportamenti difformi di DSM, ed in particolare acquisizioni finanziate con crescita dell'indebitamento e crescita dei dividendi su livelli non commensurati alla performarmance aziendale genererebbero pressioni negative sui rating.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chemicals Producer DSM Affirmed At 'A-/A-2' On Conservative Financial Policy And Adequate Credit Metrics; Outlook Stable[/FONT]

• We expect Dutch chemicals producer DSM to pursue its conservative financial policy, and thus retain adequate credit metrics despite challenging industry conditions.
• We are affirming the 'A-/A-2' ratings on DSM.
• The stable outlook reflects our expectations that the group will pursue its prudent financial policy and post metrics commensurate with the rating in 2009 and 2010, even in the case of potential material acquisitions.

PARIS (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 3, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has affirmed its 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term corporate credit ratings on Koninklijke DSM N.V. (DSM). The outlook is stable.

"The affirmation reflects our opinion that the group has a modest financial risk profile and that management is committed to maintaining a conservative financial profile," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lucas Sévenin.

"In particular, we note DSM's decision to make large acquisitions only after disposals, its shareholder distributions that are commensurate with cash flows, and solid liquidity and capitalization," said Mr. Sévenin.

The affirmation also reflects the group's strong business profile as a highly diversified manufacturer of nutritional and pharmaceutical ingredients, as well as base and high-performance chemicals. In 2008, sales reached about €9.3 billion.

The stable outlook reflects Standard & Poor's expectations that DSM will maintain a modest financial profile. In particular, we expect capital expenditures and shareholder payouts, as well as any acquisitions, to remain in line with the group's stated financial policy. With its current business mix, we would view FFO to debt of about 45% over the cycle to be commensurate with the rating.

Large debt-financed acquisitions or shareholder returns could be negative for the rating.

An even more conservative financial policy, a further reduction in exposure to cyclical chemicals, and further long-term sustainable gains in the profitability of pharmaceutical and nutritional products could affect the rating positively.