Obbligazioni societarie Monitor Bond Industria Aeronautica Worldwide e Linee Aeree Europee

[Imark]

Trimestrale di Boeing in perdita a causa dei ritardi nei piani di produzione e commercializzazione del 747-8 Freighter e del 787 Dreamliner, che hanno generato poste negative per la revisione al rialzo dei costi di produzione.

Riduce la stima degli utili a fine anno, mentre tiene ferma quella del volume di affari.

Ha ricevuto 96 ordini per nuovi veivoli e ne ha cancellati 17. Tenuto conto delle consegne, il backlog risulta ridotto dell'8% rispetto ad un anno fa, ma totalizza pur sempre il ragguardevole valore di 254 mld $, pari a svariati anni di produzione.

Bene la divisione che opera nel comparto dei sistemi di difesa, anche se l'outlook compartimentale dei competitors in questo segmento peggiora, in previsione di tagli al budget della difesa per il prossimo anno.

• OCTOBER 21, 2009, 8:00 A.M. ET

Boeing Swings To 3Q Loss On Huge Charges From Delayed Jets >BA

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Boeing Co. (BA) swung to a third-quarter loss on $3.5 billion of previously disclosed charges caused by the delay-plagued programs for the 747-8 Freighter and the 787 Dreamliner, as it lowered its full-year earnings view.
Boeing shares were down 2% to $50.77 premarket. The stock, which hit a five-year low in March, was up about a fifth so far in 2009 through Tuesday.

The commericial aircraft manufacturer and defense contractor lowered its July view for 2009 earnings, which had been made before disclosing the charges. It is now calling for earnings $1.35 to $1.55 a share, down by more than $3 from its July view, while it affirmed its revenue guidance. Wall Street predicts earnings at the high end of the new range.

Monday, rival Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) posted a slight increase in profit, beating analysts' predictions, but gave a grim view of next year because of belt-tightening at the Pentagon.

Boeing, which is the country's No. 2 government defense contractor behind Lockheed, has leaned on strength in that business to offset weakness from commercial airlines, which have been putting new purchases on hold as they reduce capacity. The company also has tarnished its reputation with continual delays to both its Dreamliner and 747-8 programs, which resulted in the massive charges in the most recent period. Last week, Boeing reiterated the Dreamliner is set to take its first flight by the end of this year.

Wednesday, Boeing didn't say Dreamliner has moved into forward-loss position, unlike the 747 program. It reiterated that the Dreamliner is still on track for first flight by year's end. Despite some speculation Boeing could shut the 747-8, and Chief Executive Officer Jim McNerney said the company looks forward to getting the plane in the air soon.

"The 787 cost reclassification and the 747 charge for increased costs and difficult market conditions clearly overshadowed what continues to be otherwise solid performance across our commercial production programs and defense business," McNerney said.

Boeing posted a loss of $1.56 billion, or $2.23 a share, compared with a year-earlier profit of $695 million, or 96 cents a share, a year earlier. Charges from the jet program problems, among others, were $3.59 a share in the most recent period. Revenue increased 9% to $16.69 billion after a machinists strike a year earlier hurt the top line.

A survey of analysts by Thomson Reuters predicted a $2.12 loss on $17.18 billion in revenue.

The commercial airline segment swung to a loss as sales rose 13% on higher deliveries offset by lower services volume. Boeing received 96 gross orders for commercial planes in the quarter, though 17 others were removed. Contractual backlog fell 8% from a year earlier to $254 billion.

The defense business saw revenue climb 3% as earnings grew 4%.

 

[mostromarino]

sintetico,in italiano..
solly fol delay

TRIMESTRALE IN PERDITA PER BOEING

21 Ott 2009 - Categoria: Industria - Commenti (0)

Conti in rosso per Boeing nel terzo trimestre. L’industria aeronautica Usa ha, infatti, conseguito una perdita netta di 1,6 miliardi di dollari (2,23 dollari ad azione) negli ultimi tre mesi dell’esercizio, dovuta, in particolar modo, ai 3,5 miliardi di dollari di oneri per i test del 787 Dreamliner e al programma del Jumbo 747. Nello stesso periodo di un anno fa il gruppo aveva registrato utili per 695 milioni di dollari. Gli analisti si aspettavano una perdita di 2,10 dollari ad azione. I primi tre test del 787 sono costati alla Boeing 2,5 miliardi di dollari, mentre i programmi per la creazione del 747 sono costati al gruppo un miliardo di dollari. Il fatturato della divisione aerei commerciali è salito del 13%, a 7,9 miliardi di dollari, grazie all’aumento delle consegne.
(www.ttgitalia.com)

 

[Imark]

Nelle scorse settimane, un report di Fitch ha fatto il punto sulla situazione delle liquidità degli emittenti del comparto industria aeronautica e difesa dell'area EMEA (europa, medio oriente ed africa).

In estrema sintesi, la natura difensiva del comparto, che tende a generare flussi di cassa stabili, e la situazione dei singoli emittenti in termini di disponibilità di liquidità in bilancio ed accesso ai mercati dei capitali fa ritenere a Fitch che non ci siano problemi in vista nel breve termine se non possibile indebolimento nel 2010 della liquidità disponibile per gli emittenti più direttamente coinvolti nella produzione aeronautica, l'ultimo comparto merceologico a risentire dell'qndamento negativo del ciclo economico, ma anche l'ultimo a riprendersi dopo la ripartenza dell'economia.

Il report è decisamente ben fatto: sintetico, con poche righe su ciascuno degli argomenti trattati ed il punto su ciascuno degli emittenti.

Vale la pena anche per chi avesse bond Finmeccanica, Thales, BAE Systems, emittenti che qui non seguiamo da vicino perché solo poco o nulla coinvolti nella produzione di aerei commerciali.

Fitch: European Aerospace & Defence Sector Liquidity Remains Strong

13 Oct 2009 7:20 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw/Paris-13 October 2009: Fitch Ratings says in a special report published today that despite expected declining cash generation in the coming year caused by tighter industry trading conditions, the liquidity of the major aerospace and defence (A&D) companies in Europe will remain healthy in the next 12 months and be more than sufficient to offset companies' relatively low level of short-term debt obligations.

"The liquidity of the European A&D sector has, to date, not been materially affected by the severity of the global economic downturn and continues to reflect generally strong balance sheets, solid free cash flow generation and unfettered access to capital markets," says Tom Chruszcz, Director in Fitch's European Industrials team.

"While A&D market conditions, particularly in the commercial aerospace segment, will likely see free cash flow generation being pressured over the coming year, European A&D companies are unlikely to experience difficulties funding debt requirements in the short term as they are still viewed relatively positively by investors." Churszcz added.

The special report, which analyses in detail the liquidity of the major European A&D companies in the EMEA region, shows that most companies have healthy liquidity profiles, underpinned by positive free cash flow generation (calculated as operating cash flow after capex and dividends), large cash balances, and ample committed bank lines and access to capital markets.

Fitch notes that, in contrast to many other industrial sectors, the deterioration in liquidity at European A&D companies rated by the agency has been limited to date. This has been the result of the relative insularity of the defence industry to economic cycles (defence budgets in most countries tend not to be volatile in the short term), the late-cycle nature of commercial aerospace, which means that cash flows have not been severely affected by the economic downturn (as at end-H109), and the conservative financial management at most companies, which has seen a material build-up of cash in the past three years.

Fitch further notes that one of the major factors underpinning its strong liquidity assessment of the sector is the uninterrupted access to debt capital markets demonstrated by all the companies so far in 2009. Since the start of the year, all five of the largest players have raised new debt in various currencies in the market, totalling the equivalent of over EUR7bn.

Fitch believes that this is unlikely to cease in the short term, as companies continue to take advantage of favourable market conditions and either re-finance medium-term debt early or improve their liquidity positions.

The A&D companies reviewed in the report are Rolls-Royce plc ('A-'/'F2'/Stable), Thales SA ('A-'/F2'/Stable), European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company NV ('EADS') ('BBB+'/'F2'/Stable), BAE Systems plc. ('BBB+'/'F2'/Stable), Finmeccanica SpA ('BBB+'/'F2'/Stable) and JSC Sukhoi Civil Aircraft ('BB'/'B'/Negative).

The report, entitled 'Liquidity Focus: EMEA Aerospace and Defence', is available on FitchResearch.

 

[Imark]

Riduzione dell'outlook per Boeing da parte di Moody's... quasi un report nell'elencazione di punti di forza e di debolezza...

Punti di forza sono sopratutto il backlog (ordinativi per 250 mld $) e il suo ruolo di contractor per la difesa, che attenua la ciclicità del business di produzione di aeremezzi, oltre agli elevati livelli di liquidità disponibile.

Molteplici i punti di debolezza (rispetto al rating attuale di A2, quindi punti di debolezza relativa): dalla risalita del debito ai ritardi nella messa a punto di nuovi aerei, alla debolezza della domanda di nuovi mezzi che potrebbe portare alla cancellazione di ordini nel breve termine, sebbene i problemi di disponibilità di finanziamento per compagnie aeree e società di leasing del settore sembrano essersi attenuati rispetto ad inizio anno, al fabbisogno di capitali per il sostenimento del fondo pensione...

Moody's changes Boeing's rating outlook to negative; affirms A2 L-T rating

Approximately $10.1 billion of debt affected

New York, October 14, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service affirmed the A2 long term and P-1 short term debt ratings of The Boeing Company ("Boeing") and its supported subsidiary, Boeing Capital Corporation ('Boeing Capital"), but changed the rating outlook to negative from stable.

"A series of negative developments have had the cumulative effect of weakening Boeing's financial flexibility at the A2 level, and led to the revision in the rating outlook to negative", noted Bob Jankowitz at Moody's Investors Service. Boeing is expected to continue to provide broad support to its market as needed, including customer financing, supplier management and investment in product development/customer support.

However, this market support will begin to erode its stability in the A2 rating category, particularly if negative trends at Boeing continue or end demand weakness results in significant production cuts.

BOEING'S A2 LONG TERM DEBT RATING

Support for Boeing's A2 debt rating comes from its position as one of the two large commercial airplane makers with a commercial backlog of about $250 billion, as well as being one of the largest US defense contractors with mission critical aircraft and systems that generate predictable profits and cash flow.

Liquidity is strong with sufficient resources to manage through the downcycle, and credit metrics are mostly within the range of other single-A issuers although at the lower end at this time.

Boeing has meaningful long term potential from its B787 program, with gross revenue we estimate to be over $100 billion from existing orders alone. Airplane financing appears to be available at this time, alleviating a major concern of earlier in the year.

The US Ex-Im Bank is expected to play an increasing role in airplane financing going forward, which could limit the need for Boeing Capital to provide customer financing.

NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENTS

The series of set-backs that have weakened financial flexibility are mostly specific to Boeing, starting with the cash burn during the lengthy machinist strike through continued B787 program delays.

Commercial airplane customers, airlines and leasing companies mostly, continue to be strained as well. Although it appears deterioration of passenger traffic and freight volumes have reached the inflection point and likely to turn up somewhat over the coming year, continued weakness in the business fundamentals of airlines could prompt Boeing (and Airbus) to institute production cuts.

Depending on how Boeing manages a reduction, if one is deemed needed, the likelihood of lower earnings and cash flow in relation to already higher debt levels could cause credit metrics to move below levels that are consistent with the A2 debt rating.

We estimate that a 20% cut in production could lower operating profits by around $1 billion per year. Boeing nearly doubled its corporate debt this year as outflows associated with the acquisition of certain B787 related businesses from Vought, the pay out under a guaranty and the ramp-up of inventory levels consumed cash.

The most recent negative news for Boeing surrounding a delay in the new 747-800 program was particularly disappointing. That airplane uses a familiar airframe with traditional materials and tested suppliers and facilities, so delays suggest continued stress in the company's new aircraft development processes that could undermine its image with airline customers.

Also, probable changes in the Department of Defense's ("DoD") procurement policies could pressure Boeing's profits. Boeing's defense focus is on long term aircraft and aerospace systems while the DoD is shifting acquisition priorities to become more focused on achieving flexibility with field equipment. This suggests that Boeing could be among the hardest hit prime contractors.

Pension could also become a significant funding issue. While Boeing faces limited required pension funding in 2009 and 2010, beginning in 2011, required funding of over $1 billion per year will place a significant call on cash resources.

BOEING CAPITAL CORPORATION

Boeing Capital's outlook was also changed to negative from stable, reflecting the captive nature of the firm's business and its reliance on support from Boeing as a ratings driver. Under a support agreement, Boeing commits to maintain at least 51% ownership in Boeing Capital, and agrees to ensure that Boeing Capital's net worth and fixed charge coverage ratios meet minimum levels. Absent Boeing's support, Boeing Capital would be rated lower than the assigned A2.

RATING SENSITIVITY

The rating could be lowered if:

i) weakness in the passenger or air freight markets result in accelerated deferrals or cancellation of orders sufficient to require a production cut in the range of 15-20% off of anticipated 2009 deliveries, particularly if Boeing is unable to reduce costs sufficiently during the wind down to preserve metrics of EBIT to Interest of at least 5x and retained cash flow to debt of at least 25% (after Moody's standard adjustments);

ii) Boeing is unable to sustain an operating margin of at least 7.5% over the near term or does not show progress towards a sustainable upper single-digit operating margin over time, particularly if the margin is affected by customer reimbursements or other costs associated with the B787 and B747 delays;

iii) cash pension contributions exceed $1 billion per year and expected to do so for some time, or Boeing Capital's cumulative new volume over the next several years is expected to exceed $4 billion or, iv) Boeing is unable to manage the supply chain during the ramp-up of its B787 delivery schedule such that delivery rates slip materially from current expectations.

The outlook could be stabilized if:

i) commercial airplane production continues in line with Boeing expectations of around 475 airplanes;
ii) no further material delays develop with the B787 or B747;
iii) Integrated Defense Systems is able to sustain its operating margin at around the 10% level while keeping revenue declines from DoD budget pressures to less than 5% per year;
iv) Boeing makes progress towards credit metrics consistent with the rating level with debt/EBITDA of around 2x, retained cash flow to debt exceeding 30% and strong return on capital measured as EBITA to Average Assets at least at the 10% level.

Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Boeing Company (The)
....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable
..Issuer: McDonnell Douglas Corporation
....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable
...Issuer: Boeing Capital Corporation
....Outlook, Changed to Negative From Stable

The last rating action on Boeing was the assignment of an A2 rating to the company's senior unsecured notes on July 29, 2009, and for Boeing Capital was an upgrade of ratings to A2/Prime-1 (in connection with an upgrade of the Boeing ratings) on March 15, 2006.

...

[FONT=&quot]The Boeing Company, based in Chicago, Illinois, is a manufacturer of large commercial airplanes and also one the largest prime US defense contractors. [/FONT]

 

[Imark]

Un bond in USD per Boeing Finance, emesso per procurare liquidità alle compagnie aeree potenziali acquirenti per far fronte al ridursi della disponibilità di credito. Boeing Capital è considerata dalle agenzie una società captive rispetto alla Boeing, e tuttavia farei attenzione perché la strategia di spingere sull'erogazione del credito ai potenziali clienti incrementa il rischio in capo al gruppo, specie in caso di debolezza prolungata dell'economia.

Meglio in ogni caso i bond del produttore.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Boeing Capital Corp.’s Proposed $1 Billion Senior Notes Rated 'A'[/FONT]

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Oct. 22, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today assigned its 'A' rating to Boeing Capital Corp.'s proposed issuance of $1 billion of senior notes. The company will issue the notes under an existing shelf registration, likely in tranches due 2014 and 2019, and will use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including repaying upcoming debt maturities.

Standard & Poor's views Boeing Capital and its parent, Boeing Co., as a single entity for credit purposes. Therefore, our corporate credit rating on Boeing Capital is the same as that on Boeing. With Boeing Capital's portfolio mix and stated purpose, we consider it a captive finance company of Boeing.

The disruptions in the capital markets in the past year have constrained the amount of aircraft financing available to airlines, increasing the demand for financing from aircraft manufacturers. Boeing expects that Boeing Capital will have to provide about $800 million in financing to support new aircraft deliveries in 2009, an amount that is somewhat less than earlier company expectations, due mostly to U.S. airlines gaining access to alternative funding sources in recent months.

 

[mostromarino]

30/10/2009 - 18:17


Rolls-Royce ha ricevuto un ordine da 720 milioni di dollari da Virgin Atlantic per motori Trent 700 che sono destinati a 10 A330. Il Trent 700 ha vinto oltre il 70% degli ordini registrati negli ultimi tre anni.

guidaviaggi.it

 

[mostromarino]

UTILE OPERATIVO DI 226 MLN NEI PRIMI NOVE MESI PER LUFTHANSA

31 Ott 2009 - Categoria: Compagnie Aeree - Commenti (0)

È di 226 milioni di euro su un fatturato di 16,2 miliardi di euro, in calo rispetto ai 728 mln del 2008 nonostante l’apporto di 28 mln di Austrian e BMI, il risultato operativo di Lufthansa nei primi nove mesi del 2009. Lo annuncia la compagnia tedesca,


dedalonews

 

[Comandante Gerard]

Air France-KLM ha da poco emesso un bond scad 2016 6,75 fisso, t.min 50k - ora quota intorno a 102 - l'emittente è senza rating - qual è la situazione di air france soprattutto in prospettiva?
Personalmente penso che mai i francesi in quanto "francesi" lascerebbero fallire la loro compagnia e fargli fare la fine di alitalia...però, chissà - se qualcuno la segue , che ne pensa?

 

[Imark]

Air France-KLM ha da poco emesso un bond scad 2016 6,75 fisso, t.min 50k - ora quota intorno a 102 - l'emittente è senza rating - qual è la situazione di air france soprattutto in prospettiva?
Personalmente penso che mai i francesi in quanto "francesi" lascerebbero fallire la loro compagnia e fargli fare la fine di alitalia...però, chissà - se qualcuno la segue , che ne pensa?

Sono d'accordo con te... è messa meno bene di Lufthansa, ed è intenta a tagliare costi e a cercare di incrementare il fatturato (taglio del 40% della capienza nella divisione cargo, pagamento a parte incrementato per il secondo collo ecc.) ma credo sia una delle 3 compagnie aeree una volta "di bandiera" che resteranno in Europa dopo il processo di concentrazione in essere...

Il rischio mi sembra pagato bene, quantomeno se raffronti il rendimento di quel bond a quello del bond analogo emesso da Lufthansa (che però è rated) poco prima...

 

[Comandante Gerard]

Sono d'accordo con te... è messa meno bene di Lufthansa, ed è intenta a tagliare costi e a cercare di incrementare il fatturato (taglio del 40% della capienza nella divisione cargo, pagamento a parte incrementato per il secondo collo ecc.) ma credo sia una delle 3 compagnie aeree una volta "di bandiera" che resteranno in Europa dopo il processo di concentrazione in essere...

Il rischio mi sembra pagato bene, quantomeno se raffronti il rendimento di quel bond a quello del bond analogo emesso da Lufthansa (che però è rated) poco prima...

Infatti... ci siamo capiti grazie!