Obbligazioni societarie Monitor Bond Industria Aeronautica Worldwide e Linee Aeree Europee

[Imark]

Intanto il rating di British Airways viene messo in osservazione da S&P per una possibile riduzione. Per BA, la crisi ha tagliato sensibilmente nella parte più polposa del business, quella dei biglietti business class dei voli transatlantici sulle rotte UK - USA.

La fusione con Iberia è vista come positiva per il business profile, e tuttavia i costi di ristrutturazione andrebbero ad avere un'incidenza immediata sulla provvista di liquidità (che S&P ritiene attualmente adeguata) laddove i 400 mln GBP di sinergie stimate in conseguenza del merger sarebbero da conseguire nel tempo....

British Airways PLC On CreditWatch Negative On Deteriorating Financial Risk Profile

Publication date: 13-Nov-2009 13:10:39 EST

·The financial risk profile of U.K.based airline British Airways PLC (BA) deteriorated further in the second quarter of fiscal 2010.
·BA and Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana S.A. have announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding on a prospective merger.
·We are putting our long-term corporate credit rating on BA on CreditWatch with negative implications.
·We aim to resolve the Creditwatch placement within the next two months.

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) Nov. 13, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it had placed its 'BB' long-term corporate credit rating and senior unsecured debt rating on U.K. based airline British Airways PLC (BA) on Creditwatch with negative implications.

The '4' recovery rating on the senior unsecured debt, indicating our expectation of average (30%-50%) recovery in an event of payment default, remains unchanged.

"The CreditWatch placement primarily reflects the deterioration of BA's financial risk profile in recent quarters, largely as a result of significantly weakening operating performance," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Eve Greb. It also reflects our need to further assess the impact of announced plans to merge BA with Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana S.A.(Iberia).

Although a merger would have benefits for BA's business risk profile, this currently would be more than offset by downward pressure on the group's operating and financial performance due to weak trading conditions.

According to the group's interim management report for the six months ended Sept. 30, 2009, BA had an operating loss of £111 million, compared with an operating profit in the corresponding period of 2008 of £140 million, due to a considerable drop in traffic volume.

In addition, weak economic conditions, particularly a sharp fall in premium traffic, have continued to weigh on financial performance in recent months as the full effects of the liquidity squeeze in world markets has taken hold. Given the extremely uncertain outlook, we believe that further deterioration of BA's financial performance for the year ending March 31, 2010, is possible.

The weak performance has had a negative impact on the group's credit protection ratios; its adjusted funds from operations to debt was below 5% for the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2009, which is well below our target ratio of 10%-15%. The group's liquidity position is adequate, however, and this is a mitigating factor.

BA and Iberia have announced the signing of a binding memorandum of understanding for a proposed merger to be signed in the first quarter of 2010 and completed by the fourth quarter of 2010 on the basis of a 55% to 45% merger ratio. With a projected £15 billion in annual sales, the combined group will be the third-largest airline in Europe by revenue after Lufthansa and Air France/KLM.

We believe that the proposed tie-up with Iberia will be beneficial to BA's business profile as it will strengthen the group's network coverage, particularly in Latin America, and increase its level of diversification in long-haul markets, which are highly reliant on North American routes.

While a joint business and integration plan has still to be formulated, the group has said it expects yield revenue synergies and cost benefits of £400 million a year over the next five years.

In the short term, there is, however, a risk that cash outlays for restructuring costs could weaken the group's financial profile before material synergy benefits accrue.

We aim to resolve the CreditWatch placement within the next three months, during which time we will discuss the group's trading expectations and business strategy.

We will also consider the impact on the group's credit profile of trading conditions, the potential effect on the balance sheet and cash flow of the forthcoming pension revaluation, and business and financial issues related to the potential merger with Iberia. Any prospective downgrade [FONT=&quot]will most likely be limited to one notch.[/FONT]

 

[mostromarino]

DATE:13/11/09
SOURCE:Air Transport Intelligence news

Shareholder files class action suit against Boeing over 787
By Lori Ranson


A class action suit against Boeing has been filed in the US District Court for the Northern District of Illinois on behalf of purchasers of the company's stock between 4 May and 22 June of this year.
The complaint charges that Boeing and certain company officers and directors violated the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

by making false and misleading statements about its ability to meet first flight of the 787.

Boeing on 23 June announced a delay in first flight of the aircraft, which had been scheduled to occur before the end of June.
Specifically, the complaint alleges Boeing made false and misleading statements in an effort to forestall further cancellation of orders, conceal from the market that the 787 had a structural problem that would prevent first flight by 30 June and first delivery during the first quarter of 2010.
The complaint also alleges that Boeing made misleading statements in order to make a positive presentation concerning test results for the 787 and the schedule for first flight and delivery during the Paris Air Show held 15-18 June. "At which Boeing hoped to receive additional orders for the 787 and beat out the showing made by Airbus for the A380", says law firm Coughlin Stoia Geller Rudman & Robbins LLP in a statement.
The more direct competitor to the 787, the A350, secured 10 firm orders from Air Asia X during the show.
The firm says that once the delay in first flight was made on 23 June, Boeing's stock price fell 6.5%, and dropped another 6% the next day.
In the complaint submitted to the court the plaintiff is listed as The City Livonia [Michigan] Employees' retirement system, represented by Coughlin Stoia. The plaintiff is seeking to cover damages on behalf of all purchasers of Boeing common stock during that time period. A copy o the complaint can be found here

 

[Imark]

Oggi: 106,19 i tedeschi, 104,01 i francesi ... differenziale verso i 2 punti pct...

Molta spinta sui tedeschi, che passano in ask fra 106,30 e 106,82 dipendendo dai diversi mercati, meno sui francesi, sebbene salga anche questo bond: fra 104,22 e 104,35

 

[Imark]

Trimestrale di EADS

EADS Q3 dips, stays cautious on FY

Mon Nov 16, 2009 4:36am EST

PARIS (Reuters) - EADS (EAD.PA) unveiled a 77 percent drop in third-quarter core earnings on Monday, as it battled a downturn in civil aviation and the damaging effect of the weak dollar along with delays to its A400M program.

EADS beat forecasts with earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of 201 million euros ($301 million) for the third quarter, but said it would not issue full-year guidance, citing uncertainty over the magnitude of potential charges for the high-profile and much-delayed A400M and A380 programs in the fourth quarter.

EADS shares rose on Monday morning, as investors welcomed positive news on cash consumption at Europe's largest aerospace group. By 0900 GMT shares were up 1.41 percent at 13.34 euros. The CAC-40 index .FCHI was 0.66 percent higher.

Analysts said the company's cash position was a positive surprise. The group's net cash position stood at 8.1 billion euros at the end of the third quarter, unchanged since the end of the first half. "The company's cash performance is fabulous; they deserve an enormous amount of credit for that," said RBS analyst Sandy Morris.

CURRENCY FEARS

But the group will be facing a "big currency headwind" in 2010, Morris warned, and the market may not have taken on board the likely impact of the weakening dollar on EADS in 2010, Morris said.

EADS said on Monday that the continuous weakening of the dollar was "challenging" its performance "because of a weakening hedge book over time," although it insisted that its long-term hedging policy meant the dollar did not pose a short-term threat.

Aircraft are traditionally priced in dollars, which makes life difficult for EADS and its planemaking unit Airbus, whose manufacturing base is in Europe.

EADS said on Monday that oil price increases and the wider economic environment created a risk for commercial aircraft customers.

"Nevertheless, the group is cautiously envisaging an improvement of the economic and market conditions in the next months."

EADS maintained its estimate of up to 300 gross aircraft orders in 2009 and said it expected to deliver around 490 aircraft this year. It said it was still working with customers to establish a delivery target for 2010, including the A380 superjumbo program.

EBIT before one-offs, which EADS says gives an underlying flavor of the business by excluding one-off charges caused by provisions or foreign exchange impacts, reached 381 million euros in the third quarter, compared with a forecast of 296 million euros.

The company said increased volumes and savings linked to its Airbus Power8 cost-cut plan were not enough to compensate for worsening hedge rates, increased cost and falling prices on aircraft deliveries.

EBIT for the first nine months -- at 1.089 billion euros, compared with 2.018 billion euros last year -- was hit by foreign exchange impact, EADS said.

The group said third-quarter EBIT last year had been supported by 965 million euros from the revaluation of loss-making contract provisions at the closing spot rate.

The Airbus parent took a further 224 million euros in provisions in the first nine months of 2009 for delays to its A400M military transport project, on top of the 2.3 billion euros already booked.

EADS is taking minor provisions each quarter pending a contract renegotiation that could lead to a final assessment of its losses on the troubled defense deal, expected later this year. At the half-year stage it also warned of charges in the second half on the A380, whose production costs are over budget.

Group revenues slid 2 percent to 9.528 billion euros in the third quarter, and the group posted a net loss of 87 million euros, EADS said in a statement.

 

[Imark]

Intanto a Dubai i produttori parlano di un mercato in stabilizzazione, in quanto si vanno affievolendo i differimenti riguardanti gli ordinativi di produzione e di conseguenza le previsioni sul ridimensionamento della capacità produttiva (con Boeing e Airbus che peraltro fanno capire che sarà un successo nel 2010 restare sui livelli attuali, senza contrarre ulteriormente l'output di aeroplani).

Inoltre per ora i nuovi ordini languono e si dovrà vedere se effettivamente il 2010 sarà un anno di stabilizzazione per le compagnie aeree ed il 2011 un anno di generalizzato ritorno al profitto...

Airbus, Boeing Call Recovery as Airlines Accept Jets (Update1)

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Airbus SAS and Boeing Co., the biggest commercial-plane makers, predicted airlines will emerge from a slump next year as the global economy rebounds from the worst recession in decades and fuels air travel.

Airlines have stopped pushing back deliveries, Airbus Chief Operating Officer John Leahy said at the Dubai Air Show yesterday. Boeing estimates economic growth in 2010 will help airlines repair their balance sheets, said Randy Tinseth, the company’s marketing chief for commercial planes.

“Next year will be a year of recovery, and in 2011 airlines will return to profitability,” Tinseth said. “The last air show in 2007 was absolutely a year about orders, and this year is more about working with our customers.”

The Dubai show reflects both a nascent industry recovery and a contrast to the boom years of previous expos. While Airbus scored a contract today with Ethiopian Airlines for widebody planes worth $2.8 billion at list price, orders announced by aircraft manufacturers on just the first day of the last show two years ago approached $40 billion.

Airline passenger traffic through September this year dropped 5.3 percent, and the International Air Transport Association, which represents 93 percent of all international traffic flown, predicts a combined loss of about $11 billion for the world’s airlines.

Maintaining Deliveries

Airlines including British Airways Plc and Deutsche Lufthansa AG in Europe, as well as AMR Corp.’s American Airlines and Delta Air Lines Inc. in the U.S. reacted by delaying deliveries to defer costs or parking aircraft.

Airbus and Boeing still managed to maintain or even increase deliveries this year. Boeing, which handed over 375 planes last year after a strike slowed production, expects to deliver 480 to 485 planes this year, Tinseth said yesterday. Airbus will match or beat its delivery of 483 planes last year, Leahy said.

Both manufacturers steadied production in 2009 by juggling order books, persuading some customers to advance deliveries as others gave up their slots.

At the Dubai show in 2007, Airbus signed a $31 billion contract with Emirates Airlines, Boeing won $6.1 billion in orders from Qatar Airways, and Brazil’s Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA announced an order worth as much as $811 million.

Keeping the Pace

Airbus Chief Executive Officer Tom Enders said Oct. 30 that the company is more likely to lower than increase production rates, and sustaining the current monthly output of 34 single- aisle jets would be a success. EADS reiterated today in its third-quarter earnings announcement that for 2010 it’s “cautiously monitoring its production rates in a soft market environment.”

Boeing has maintained rates of 31 single-aisle 737s a month and will cut production of its 777s to five a month from seven starting in June.

Airline traffic will grow next year, Boeing’s Tinseth predicted, as markets including Asia and Europe show signs of recovery. That means a return to profitability for airlines in 2010 and 2011, followed by new orders as they replace older planes and expand fleets, he said.

Still, a recovery won’t prompt all airlines to expand their fleet. Emirates Airlines, the largest carrier in the Arab region, has orders for 53 double-decker Airbus A380s and 70 Airbus A350s and doesn’t predict additional purchase contracts any time soon, Chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Al Maktoum said.

‘Very Positive’

“The market is very positive,” he said in an interview at the air show yesterday. “You can see it from our results, from the traffic growth of Dubai International Airport. For us it’s very positive and better than expected.”

The company may sell shares to the public in two or three years as carriers in the Middle East expand their market share and global air travel resumes, he said.

Supporting Emirates’ optimism is the resilience of Middle East carriers compared with those in other regions. Passenger traffic at Gulf region airlines including Emirates, Qatar Airways Ltd. and Abu Dhabi’s Etihad rose 9.4 percent in the first nine months. They boosted capacity faster than carriers in other regions and kept seats occupied by cutting fares.

Dubai Airports passenger traffic this year is ahead of target, up 8.3 percent, Chief Executive Officer Paul Griffiths said today in an interview. The number of passengers is expected to rise to 40 million this year from 37 million in 2008, he said.

Air Arabia PJSC, the United Arab Emirates’ biggest low-cost carrier, plans to add six new planes to its fleet next year and is discussing further options for new planes, including leasing, Chief Executive Adel Ali said in Dubai yesterday.

More from Africa

Ethiopian Airlines, which outlined the Airbus orders in Dubai, plans orders for new aircraft in 2010 to continue adding routes, Chief Executive Girma Wake said in an interview. He said the airline is keeping its order for 10 Boeing 787 jets in addition to the order placed today for 12 Airbus A350s.

“Everybody is talking about new orders, there is nobody talking about delays and cancellations,” said Airbus’s Leahy. “Six months or nine months ago, people were talking about delaying aircraft, talking about canceling aircrafts. At this juncture we see the market improving, not deteriorating.”

 

[Imark]

Vediamo se alla fine ci avrò preso con lo spread: ora francesi in ask a 103,92 (e Extramot finalmente allineato sull'ask dei mercati tedeschi, che però in bid battono 103,49 - 103,51, mentre il nostro mercato sta 1 punto pct sotto... ); tedeschi 106,25 (bid fra 105,95 e 106,20)...

fine giornata: 106,2 per i tedeschi, 103,7 i francesi... 2,50 punti pct di differenziale...

Oggi: 106,19 i tedeschi, 104,01 i francesi ... differenziale verso i 2 punti pct...

Molta spinta sui tedeschi, che passano in ask fra 106,30 e 106,82 dipendendo dai diversi mercati, meno sui francesi, sebbene salga anche questo bond: fra 104,22 e 104,35

Chiusura di giornata: 106,4 per i tedeschi, 104,42 per i francesi ... sui 2 punti pct di differenziale... mi diverte 'sta cosa...

 

[Imark]

Chiusura di giornata: 106,4 per i tedeschi, 104,42 per i francesi ... sui 2 punti pct di differenziale... mi diverte 'sta cosa...

Tedeschi attorno a 106,40/45 (con picco a 106,60 su di uno dei mercati tedeschi); francesi attorno a 104,52/56 (con picco a 104,70).

Al raggiungimento del target di 1,5 punti pct di spread sull'ask, prometto che smetto di rompere le scatole con questa corsa dei ciuchi...

 

[Imark]

Tedeschi attorno a 106,40/45 (con picco a 106,60 su di uno dei mercati tedeschi); francesi attorno a 104,52/56 (con picco a 104,70).

Al raggiungimento del target di 1,5 punti pct di spread sull'ask, prometto che smetto di rompere le scatole con questa corsa dei ciuchi...

Fine giornata: 106,60 per i tedeschi (che mediano fra i 106,44 del mercato di massimi volumi ed il picco di 106,99 di Francoforte, con gli altri poco sopra/sotto i 106,5) 104,85 per i francesi... 1,75 punti pct... sui francesi però indebolimento dei volumi...

 

[Imark]

Fine giornata: 106,60 per i tedeschi (che mediano fra i 106,44 del mercato di massimi volumi ed il picco di 106,99 di Francoforte, con gli altri poco sopra/sotto i 106,5) 104,85 per i francesi... 1,75 punti pct... sui francesi però indebolimento dei volumi...

Oggi: tedeschi 106,70 (di media fra i 106,48/53 di molti mercati ed il 106,90 di francoforte), francesi 104,88/89 ... più o meno come ieri; spread bid ask abbastanza stretto per entrambi, salvo che per i tedeschi su Francorte, dove siamo a 65 pb

 

[Imark]

Oggi: tedeschi 106,70 (di media fra i 106,48/53 di molti mercati ed il 106,90 di francoforte), francesi 104,88/89 ... più o meno come ieri; spread bid ask abbastanza stretto per entrambi, salvo che per i tedeschi su Francorte, dove siamo a 65 pb

Fine giornata: tedeschi 106,40, francesi 105,00 (di media fra 104,90/95/98 su 3 dei mercati tedeschi e i 105,11 su altri 2...) 140 pb di spread sull'ask, credo si possa chiamare target ... sulla forza reputo verosimile possa posizionarsi sulla parte alta del target 150 - 100 pb di spread sull'ask fra i due titoli...