Obbligazioni societarie Monitor Bond Industria Aeronautica Worldwide e Linee Aeree Europee

[Comandante Gerard]

Ciao Comandante ... hai detto bene, quasi troppo... io sono entrato a 100,95 circa tre settimane fa, facendo quella scommessa poi monitorata sul suo sviluppo qui sopra... li ho ancora, in onestà, e sono uno che normalmente si perde la coda del gain (ossia non esce sui massimi) perché avere palle non vuol dire doversele per forza giocare alla riffa...

Morale: ce li ho ancora, può darsi facciano altra strada, e almeno nel breve la cosa non è da escludere, ma se arrivassero a quella soglia che indichi, sarebbe molto saggio valutare una uscita ...

Capito mi hai... Ovviamente avrai intuito anche tu che ce le ho anch'io, le ho prese prima ma un pò più alte di te (poco sopra 101) e mi sono messo in attesa... non nego che avrei preferito una salita meno dirompente, ma stiamo a vedere... se si arriva lì intorno io il dito ce l'ho pronto
se si stabilizza per un pò meglio , si raschia qualcosa in più di cedola
- ci aggiorniamo

 

[Imark]

Altro bond di Boeing...

Boeing Co.'s Proposed $1.2 Billion Senior Notes Rated 'A'


NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Nov. 17, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today assigned its 'A' rating to Boeing Co.'s proposed offering of $1.2 billion senior notes that it will issue in two tranches, due 2012 and 2016.

Boeing will issue the notes as a drawdown on the company's existing rule 415 unlimited shelf registration and will use the proceeds for general corporate purposes.

"Our ratings on Boeing reflect its position as one of two global producers of large commercial aircraft and one of the largest U.S. defense contractors, as well as significant liquidity," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Philip Baggaley. Our concerns include the possibility of further production cuts due to airline order deferrals and cancellations and risks related to the development of the 787, which is more than two years behind schedule, and the 747-8 jetliners.

"We are also troubled due to the long-term effect of changes in U.S. defense spending and substantial post-retirement liabilities," he continued. Including the proposed issuance and $1 billion of notes that wholly owned finance subsidiary Boeing Capital Corp. issued, Boeing will have issued $6 billion in new debt this year to bolster liquidity.

In addition, Boeing recently replaced its $1 billion, 364-day revolving credit facility with a $1.525 billion, 364-day revolving credit facility. To address the $8.4 billion (as of Dec. 31, 2008) pension underfunding and to preserve cash, Boeing recently contributed $1.5 billion of its common stock to the pension fund.

 

[Imark]

E nel commentare questa emissione di Boeing, Fitch fa il punto sulla situazione del leverage e del cash flow... interessanti per i possessori di bond del produttore aeronautico...

Fitch Expects to Rate Boeing's New Notes 'A+'; Comments on Cash Flow & Leverage

17 Nov 2009 10:30 AM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-New York-17 November 2009: Fitch Ratings expects to assign 'A+' ratings to The Boeing Company's (BA) planned issuance of new three-year and seven-year senior unsecured notes. Fitch expects the proceeds from the new notes will be used to increase liquidity and for general corporate purposes.Fitch currently rates BA and Boeing Capital Corporation (BCC) as follows:
--Issuer Default Rating (IDR) 'A+';
--Senior unsecured debt 'A+';
--Bank facilities 'A+';
--Short-term IDR 'F1';
--Commercial paper programs 'F1'.

The Rating Outlook is Negative. Assuming approximately $1 billion of proceeds from today's transactions, the ratings cover approximately $13 billion of debt ($8.6 billion at BA, including approximately $380 million of non-recourse debt, and $4.4 billion at BCC).

Delays in the 787 and 747-8 programs over the past 18 months have negatively affected BA's credit quality because of inventory build-up, delayed advance payments, and higher development expenses. Cash flow pressures will likely persist into 2011 due to continued inventory build-up in support of initial 787 deliveries.

Although free cash flow (cash from operations less capital expenditures and dividends) will probably be positive in 2009 (consolidated $511 million through September), Fitch believes that break-even or negative free cash flow is possible in 2010 depending on the ultimate schedule for 787 deliveries, production rates on other aircraft models, and the company's working capital management, which has been good in 2009 considering the 787 inventory pressures and reduced advances because of lower orders.

The company's decision to use up to $1.5 billion of stock instead of cash for pension contributions in 2009 and 2010 alleviates some cash pressure. Fitch estimates that cash generation could be substantial starting in the second half of 2011 as 787 inventory is delivered, barring additional program delays or inventory write-downs.

As of Sept. 30, 2009, BA's liquidity position, excluding BCC, was approximately $8 billion, consisting of $6.5 billion in cash and investments, and complete availability under $1.5 billion of bank facilities. Including today's transaction, BA has increased parent company debt levels by approximately $5 billion in 2009. The debt issuance has allowed BA to rebuild some of its liquidity position, and Fitch estimates that BA (excluding BCC) could have less than $500 million of net debt (gross debt less cash) at the end of 2009.

Fitch considers BA's credit metrics to be weak for the 'A+' rating, and the 787 developments have eroded the margin of safety at the current rating level. Including the impact of the proposed debt offerings, Fitch projects that BA's leverage (gross debt to EBITDA) in 2009 will be approximately 1.3 times (x), which Fitch considers to be weak for the current rating, particularly given that BA's businesses have not experienced the revenue declines experienced by many industrial companies during the current recession.

Leverage could deteriorate in 2010 depending on commercial airplane build rates and 787 developments. The preceding calculations exclude BCC by accounting for the subsidiary using the equity method, and non-recourse debt at BA is also excluded. The calculations also exclude non-recurring charges, but include the impact of approximately $900 million of non-cash pension expense.

Fitch revised BA's Rating Outlook to Negative from Stable in April. The Outlook revision reflected Fitch's higher level of concern regarding several issues, including the global recession's impact on the commercial aerospace industry, increasing pressure on Department of Defense (DoD) budgets, the health of the aircraft finance market, the risk of further delays in the 787 program, and BA's buildup of inventories in 2008, which reduced the company's liquidity position by $8.5 billion. Other than the additional delays in the 787 program, most of the other concerns reflected in the Negative Outlook have moderated in the past six months.

Rating concerns for BA include the susceptibility of the commercial aerospace industry to shocks such as terrorism and disease; margin levels that are low for the rating category; periodic labor disruptions; and the performance of some programs at both Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) and Integrated Defense Systems. The pension deficit and several litigation actions are also potential concerns.

BA's debt ratings are supported by the company's balanced business portfolio (approximately 50% defense and 50% commercial), financial flexibility, competitive positions in both of its main business lines, large backlog, and high levels of defense spending. BA's liquidity position and favorable debt maturity schedule also support the ratings. Fitch believes that BA has evolved into a more diverse and lower-risk company than it was at the beginning of the last aerospace down cycle that began in late 2001.

BCC's ratings are linked to BA's ratings due to the existence of a support agreement and other factors such as an operating agreement and transactional support provided to BCC by BA, but BA does not guarantee BCC's debt.

 

[Imark]

Chiusura: 106,29 tedeschi, 104,96 i francesi ... 135 pb...

Oggi fermi i tedeschi (fra 106,24 e 106,4) si storna con i francesi, fra 104,8 e 105,10, ma last più in basso, in prossimità del bid...

Vedremo a fine giornata...

In chiusura, tedeschi sempre lì: attorno a 106,28 l'ask "medio" sui mercati di quotazione... i francesi pure restano al palo: 105 l'ask "medio", con spread bid ask che per i tedeschi si colloca sui 15 pb, mentre per i francesi attorno ai 40-45 pb di media...

 

[Imark]

Oggi fermi i tedeschi (fra 106,24 e 106,4) si storna con i francesi, fra 104,8 e 105,10, ma last più in basso, in prossimità del bid...

Vedremo a fine giornata...

In chiusura, tedeschi sempre lì: attorno a 106,28 l'ask "medio" sui mercati di quotazione... i francesi pure restano al palo: 105 l'ask "medio", con spread bid ask che per i tedeschi si colloca sui 15 pb, mentre per i francesi attorno ai 40-45 pb di media...

In apertura, più forti i tedeschi (attorno a 106,3 l'ask e spread bid ask 15-25 pb sui mercati tedeschi) che i francesi (ask 105,1 di media, però spread bid ask sui 40-45 pb; inoltre con quantità esposte in bid ed in ask, ma senza scambi sui mercati tedeschi)...

Farò il punto della chiusura di giornata su questo stesso post: un post al giorno mi sembra più che sufficiente...

Fine giornata: tedeschi 106,29/30 - francesi 105 ... spread sull'ask invariato a 130 pb... segnalo per i francesi bid ask in contrazione a 20-30 pb, ma no scambi sui mercati retail nonostante quantità esposte in bid ed in ask...

 

[Imark]

Brutto colpo per Airbus ieri: una compagnia USA, la US Airways, ha differito in un solo colpo l'acquisto di 54 aerei fino ad almeno il 2013...

The Associated Press: US Airways defers delivery of 54 aircraft

Airbus garantisce che gli effetti della decisione, sulla quale vi erano state tratative, sono già scontati nei piani di produzione predisposti per il 2010.

US Airways Move Won't Disrupt Airbus 2010 Production Plan - WSJ.com

 

[Imark]

In apertura, più forti i tedeschi (attorno a 106,3 l'ask e spread bid ask 15-25 pb sui mercati tedeschi) che i francesi (ask 105,1 di media, però spread bid ask sui 40-45 pb; inoltre con quantità esposte in bid ed in ask, ma senza scambi sui mercati tedeschi)...

Farò il punto della chiusura di giornata su questo stesso post: un post al giorno mi sembra più che sufficiente...

Fine giornata: tedeschi 106,29/30 - francesi 105 ... spread sull'ask invariato a 130 pb... segnalo per i francesi bid ask in contrazione a 20-30 pb, ma no scambi sui mercati retail nonostante quantità esposte in bid ed in ask...

Oggi: tedeschi 106,29/106,35 - francesi 105,2 (di media fra 105,08/105,17-20/105,30 sui diversi mercati tedeschi). Tornano gli scambi sui francesi su Stoccarda, con prezzi discreti, appena sopra quota 105, anche se su altri mercati il bid ask dei francesi resta distanziato da 35-60 pb.

Spread sull'ask fra tedeschi e francesi a target: 110-115 pb.

Chi comprasse al MOT e vendesse a Stoccarda farebbe un affare risk free...

 

[Comandante Gerard]

Chi comprasse al MOT e vendesse a Stoccarda farebbe un affare risk free...

Ti propongo come arbitro internazionale...

 

[Imark]

Ti propongo come arbitro internazionale...

Preciso che non dovrebbe comprare sull'ask, ma ai prezzi "fatti" questa mattina....

PS: se le borse vanno ancora su, lo spread sull'ask credo scenderà sotto i 100 pb... anche se non penso arriverà davvero a 20-30 pb... sarebbe eccessivo...

 

[Imark]

Oggi: tedeschi 106,29/106,35 - francesi 105,2 (di media fra 105,08/105,17-20/105,30 sui diversi mercati tedeschi). Tornano gli scambi sui francesi su Stoccarda, con prezzi discreti, appena sopra quota 105, anche se su altri mercati il bid ask dei francesi resta distanziato da 35-60 pb.

Spread sull'ask fra tedeschi e francesi a target: 110-115 pb.

Chi comprasse al MOT e vendesse a Stoccarda farebbe un affare risk free...

Ieri sera, tedeschi fermi esattamente sui prezzi, francesi in calo sull'ask attorno a quota 104,95-99, spread sull'ask di nuovo indietro a 130 pb...

Oggi: tedeschi di media sui 106,3 con scambi chiusi a ridosso dell'ask, mentre i francesi tornano a 105,2 (di media...), ma il bid 50-60 pb sotto...

L'equity pare voler stornare, per cui difficilmente lo spread andrà a migliorare oggi...

E infatti, così è andata: niente flight to quality intercompartimentale, i titoli salgono entrambi ... tedeschi a 106,6 (di media) francesi a 105,35 (di media anche loro), spread a 125 bp ...