Intanto passa a negativo l'outlook di S&P su OTE, della quale attualmente Deutsche Telekom controlla il 30% e lo Stato greco il 20%. Il rating era passato a BBB ... verificherò tutti i rating in questi giorni, perché questo downgrade mi era sfuggito.
Avevamo già constatato dall'ultima trimestrale come si fosse indebolita la performance dell'ex monopolista greco, a causa soprattutto del negativo andamento della divisione che gestisce la linea fissa sul mercato interno, con una metrica finananziaria in deterioramento su soglie (2,7x il leverage per fine 2009 previsto da S&P, e 3,0x a fine 2010; 27% e 30% il FFO/debt rispettivamente) che al termine del 2010 sono considerate quali valori limite per la conservazione del rating attuale.
Al momento il rating di OTE è stand alone, in quanto esso non sconta aspettative di supporto né da parte dello Stato greco, né di DT, dalla quale S&P si aseptta mero supporto operativo in una fase che la vede ancora al 30% dell'azionariato.
Da tenere a mente che, in prospettiva, potrebbero giocare un ruolo negativo eventuali criticità del debito e delle valute contro euro nell'area est europea e dei Balcani meridionali in particolare, rispetto alla quale OTE è decisamente esposta.
Il varo di misure di conservazione dei margini giocherebbe in prospettiva un ruolo positivo nell'evoluzione del rating, mentre un deterioramento della metrica finanziaria al di là delle soglie indicate sopra potrebbe innescare un downgrade nei prox 18 mesi.
Non ci sono problematiche legate al rifinanziamento a breve di scadenze debitorie significative.
Greek Telco OTE Outlook Revised To Negative On Operating Underperformance/Weaker 2010 Prospects; Short-Term Cut To 'A-3
- The operating performance of Greek telecoms company OTE has come under increasing pressure in 2009, while operating/financial prospects have deteriorated for 2010.
- Greece's deep recession and the government's economic challenges are also weighing on the company.
- We are revising our outlook on OTE to negative from stable and lowering the short-term rating to 'A-3' from 'A-2'.
- The negative outlook reflects the possibility that unmitigated operating and/or financial pressure could result in a downgrade over the next 18 months.
MADRID (Standard & Poor's) Dec. 21, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has revised its outlook on Greek telecommunications operator Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A. (OTE) to negative from stable. At the same time, Standard & Poor's lowered its short-term corporate credit rating on OTE to 'A-3' from 'A-2'. The 'BBB' long-term corporate credit rating was affirmed.
The outlook revision reflects what we see as increasing pressure on OTE's operating performance.
"This pressure has already weighed on the company's earnings and cash flow in 2009 and, in our view, is likely to continue to do so in 2010 in the context of Greece's deep recession," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Leandro de Torres Zabala. "We expect negative operating developments to result next year in a further decrease in OTE's free operating cash flow (FOCF) and a material increase in financial leverage."
Given our revision of the outlook on the 'BBB' rating to negative, we have lowered our short-term corporate credit rating on OTE to 'A-3', in line with our criteria.
Operating pressures, coupled with material cash payments related to staff retirement, taxes, and capital expenditures, will likely, in our opinion, materially weaken OTE's FOCF generation in 2010 and thereby increase its financial leverage. During the first nine months of 2009, OTE generated € 419 million of FOCF, down 38% from the same period of 2008. According to our calculations, we expect the company's financial leverage (debt to EBITDA) to exceed 2.7x as of year-end 2009--adjusted for operating leases, postretirement liabilities, the proportional consolidation of Romanian fixed-line subsidiary RomTelecom, and RomTelecom's cash balances--and FFO to debt to be around 27%.
We expect these ratios to deteriorate in 2010, toward 3.0x and 25%, respectively, which are the limits for the current ratings.
We do not incorporate support from the Greek government (a 20% shareholder) into our ratings on OTE. At this stage, we only incorporate operational support from Deutsche Telekom AG (a 30% shareholder; BBB+/Stable/A-2). We also do not cap our ratings on OTE by our sovereign ratings on Greece (Hellenic Republic; BBB+/Watch Neg/A-2), although we acknowledge the adverse impact that the deterioration in the country's economy and public finances is indirectly having on the company.
The negative outlook acknowledges what we see as an increasing weakening of OTE's credit profile owing to operating and financial pressures.
"A downgrade is possible over the next 18 months if OTE fails to address these pressures, particularly regarding its domestic fixed-line business, resulting in unmitigated earnings and cash flow pressure and, therefore, an increase in financial leverage to levels no longer commensurate with the current ratings," said Mr. de Torres. "Specifically, a further significant weakening of OTE's business risk profile and/or a deterioration of S&P-adjusted debt to EBITDA to above 3.0x or of FFO to debt to below25% could trigger a downgrade."
Alternatively, if OTE is able to accelerate cost cutting, thereby defending its earnings and cash flow generation profile and maintaining leverage at bay, this could result in a revision of the outlook back to stable.
The current ratings factor in our assumption that OTE will maintain a comfortable refinancing profile at all times, which includes a prompt refinancing of its 2011 debt maturities.
Come sempre c'ho capito poco,
