U.S. Banks May Be the ‘New Utilities,’ Goldman Says (Update1)
By Christine Harper
Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) --
Large U.S. banks risk becoming the “new utilities” as governments introduce greater regulation and force lenders to increase capital ratios, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said.
Return on equity at the biggest U.S. banks will be limited by higher capital requirements and greater regulatory controls, analysts led by
Richard Ramsden in New York said in a report to clients today.
The measure of how effectively banks invest earnings may shrink to between 10 percent and 12 percent, from the 15 percent banks generated between 1990 and 2006, they said.
U.S. Bancorp was cut to “sell” because the Minneapolis- based company, while “a good bank,” is already highly valued, the analysts wrote. Goldman also re-instated its sell rating on
Citigroup Inc., saying “investors should avoid the stock given no core earnings power clarity.”
Bank of America Corp. was cut to “neutral,” the same rating given
Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo & Co. and PNC Financial Services Group Inc. The analysts recommend buying
JPMorgan Chase & Co., which they said may show earnings improvement as the economic cycle turns.
Large banks, particularly Citigroup, U.S. Bancorp and Bank of America, have “thin” capital cushions compared with Goldman’s estimates for losses in the industry, the note said.
“Cutting common dividends may be the right thing to do in the current environment,” Goldman said. “We estimate that cutting dividends to zero would generate approximately 7 basis points of tangible common equity per quarter on average.” A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
House Price Declines
Banks will get “limited benefit” from having a diversified geographic spread, Ramsden wrote. Losses will grow “exponentially” when house price declines exceed 15 percent, which the analysts are expecting in 2009.
“As unemployment rises, consumer and commercial real estate problems are set to accelerate,” the analysts wrote. Commercial real estate and consumer loans account for an average 39 percent of loans at large banks, compared with 25 percent at regional banks, they wrote.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Christine Harper in London at
[email protected]