ETC Natural Gas (11 lettori)

[NEO_99]

buona sera....
il gas si è mosso dai minimi... ( i picchi di volume sui minimi,segnalati venerdi come chiusura di posizioni short potrebbe essere credibile)

sono ancora long, anche se ho chiuso qualche contratto.. 7 mini aperti nn si dorme la notte ora sono 4, pmc 3.995 su aprile

 

[NEO_99]

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures ended higher Monday on bargain buying after prices touched their lowest levels since November.
Natural gas for March delivery settled 1.5 cents, or 0.4% higher, at $3.925 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The benchmark contract sank by 9.3% last week, pressed by the view that winter's peak gas demand period was coming to an end. But bargain buyers supported the market Monday, analysts said.
"Every time gas breaks below $4, people get interested," said Matt Zeman, chief market strategist with LaSalle Futures in Chicago. "I think the consensus is that it can't stay at these levels" for very long.
Futures earlier Monday fell as low as $3.86/MMBtu, the lowest intraday price since Nov. 18, as mild weather forecasts continued to weigh on demand expectations for the heating and power-plant fuel.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer-than-normal across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this week, with warmth lingering in the South and East thereafter, meteorologists with private forecaster MDA EarthSat said Monday.
Cold weather in December and January had supported the natural gas market, keeping prices in a range between about $4 and $4.60 before the recent warmer outlook sent traders cashing out.
The gas market is still pressed by depressed sentiment, analyst said, as strong production from shale rock formations is seen outpacing demand in 2011 and keeping a lid on prices.
The Energy Information Administration in its most recent outlook said U.S. production should grow by 0.8% in 2011 compared with year-earlier levels, while consumption is seen increasing by 0.3%.
But the U.S. gas market is set to end winter with a far more balanced supply-and-demand picture than was originally anticipated. Some analysts had expected that U.S. gas inventories at the end of winter's withdrawal season would stand at a record above 1.7 trillion cubic feet. Instead, frigid weather has forced power producers to lean heavily on inventories, and the EIA said this month that it forecasts that 1.651 tcf will remain in storage at the end of March.
"We are still ending the season with less gas than people anticipated," said Jay Levine of brokerage Enerjay LLC.

 

[NEO_99]

Toh! hanno rivisto le previsioni meteo...

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures rose for the first time in three days in New York as revised forecasts showed weather will be colder than normal next week from the U.S. Plains to the Northeast.
Gas gained 0.4 percent as forecasters including MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather in Rockville, Maryland, said in midday updates that temperatures won’t be as high as previous models predicted. Futures also climbed as the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials advanced.
“The forecast that came out around noontime is helping gas,” said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., a consulting company in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “The gas market right now lacks direction and is just latching on the strength in other contracts in the commodity complex.”
Natural gas for March delivery rose 1.5 cents to settle at $3.925 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The futures have declined 28 percent from a year ago.
The CRB index increased 0.3 percent to 338.76.
There will be “widespread cold across the Plains and Midwest” late next week as well as in the Northeast, EarthSat Energy said. The high temperature in New York on Feb. 20 will be 38 degrees Fahrenheit (3.3 Celsius), 4 below normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania, while the high in Boston will be 31 degrees, 9 below normal.
About 52 percent of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.
Warmer This Week
The weather will be warmer than normal this week, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. The high temperature in New York on Feb. 17 will be 56 degrees Fahrenheit, 15 degrees above normal, according to AccuWeather.
Gas has tumbled 11 percent this month.
“This is mid-February and we are not far from the end of heating season,” said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics, an energy research firm in London, Arkansas.
Hedge funds and other large speculators raised bearish bets on natural gas to the highest level since December 2008. Net- short positions in natural gas rose to 112,081, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
U.S. gas stockpiles declined 209 billion cubic feet in the week ended Feb. 4 to 2.144 trillion, the Energy Department reported last week.
Storage Drop
The storage drop was bigger than the five-year average decline of 159 billion cubic feet, department data showed. The storage level was 2.1 percent below the five-year average, declining to a deficit for the first time since Jan. 15, 2010.
A deficit to year-earlier supplies widened to 4.4 percent from 2.9 percent.
Gas futures volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 233,467 as of 2:47 p.m., compared with the three-month average of 303,000. Volume was 437,704 on Feb. 11. Open interest was 933,643 contracts. The three-month average open interest is 802,000.

 

[Unqualified]

Previsto di breve rialzo e poi discesa fino a giugno per la felicità degli short. Non vi sembra troppo scontato?

 

[NEO_99]

Week Ended Previous
Feb. 8 Week
NYMEX GAS FUTURES ONLY
Long
Producers/Users 56,432 51,977
Swap Dealers 259,295 251,951
Money Managers 118,228 120,361
Other Reportables 25,524 19,228
Short
Producers/Users 91,510 92,515
Swap Dealers 39,069 38,432
Money Managers 259,770 240,648
Other Reportables 109,236 118,073

NYMEX GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS COMBINED
Long
Producers/Users 61,503 56,038
Swap Dealers 229,905 223,715
Money Managers 147,618 151,349
Other Reportables 25,436 19,342
Short
Producers/Users 94,044 95,077
Swap Dealers 48,975 49,278
Money Managers 259,699 239,576
Other Reportables 104,213 113,713

 

[carletto84]

troppo scontato lo short....
state attenti che le mani forti fanno quello che vogliono!

 

[William_Delbert_Gann]

Previsto di breve rialzo e poi discesa fino a giugno per la felicità degli short. Non vi sembra troppo scontato?

In effetti con l'inflazione che c'è quale migliore occasione per i grandi speculatori andare long sull'unica commodity che è nel 2010 è scesa del 20%

 

[carletto84]

ciao william.. anche tu prevedi un rialzo a breve? anche secondo me lo short è troppo scontato

 

[NEO_99]

previsioni scorte di Ben ( enercast )

storage:
previous week: -209
same week last yr: -174
5 yr avg: -148
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical dataset provided by eia: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

my current estimate is -259 bcf

 

[Moma]

Se lo short è così scontato perchè siete tutti long???
E' una contraddizione, qualcosa di "scontato" è un qualcosa che presente nel pensiero comune della maggioranza degli individui.

Poi ve l'ho già detto, il gas farà il picco vero e proprio quando sarete tutti short, ve lo dico perchè l'ho visto l'anno scorso sul wheat dove non c'era uno che uno long sul wheat se non quelli incastrati da molto più in alto che alla fine hanno cmq lossato prima che risalisse ai loro livelli.

Inoltre ricordatevi che il gas i gap li chiude, e non guardate quello a circa 4,3$ perchè è già chiuso...