NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures rose Thursday ahead of a report expected to show a smaller-than-average draw from U.S. inventories last week as mild weather cut demand for the heating fuel.
Natural gas for April delivery recently traded 2.4 cents, or 0.6% higher, at $3.962 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Futures have been supported in recent days by speculation that Japanese nuclear plant outages would spur increased global demand for other fuels, but the boost hasn't been enough to break the market out of its recent range. The benchmark futures contract has shuffled between about $3.80 and $4 since mid-February, as gains have been capped by expectations for mild weather and low heating needs and support has come from consumers of the fuel and others looking to buy at what they see as bargain prices.
The market "continues to chop sideways on light volume, as traders have already had plenty of chances to trade $3.90 and are uninspired to see prices still hovering at about that same level," said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citi Futures Perspective, in a note to clients.
Weather forecasts for next week came in colder Thursday across some major gas-heating markets in the upper Midwest and Northeast. "The forecast has turned quite a bit colder overall...over the eastern half of the nation," MDA EarthSat forecasters said in a note to clients.
The private forecaster still expects mild or warmer-than-normal temperatures through the southcentral and southeastern U.S.
Meanwhile, analysts and traders are awaiting a report from the Energy Information Administration expected to show that 44 billion cubic feet of gas was withdrawn from storage last week, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey, less than the 58-bcf five-year average draw on the week. The EIA's weekly report is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of last Friday would have been at 1.630 trillion cubic feet, about 2.1% above the five-year average. The surplus represents a sharp reversal from mid-February, when weeks of colder-than-normal temperatures forced power producers to lean on inventories, sending U.S. supplies as low as 6.9% below average as of Feb. 11.
Physical natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.84/MMBtu, little changed from Wednesday's average, according to IntercontinentalExchange. Gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York recently traded at $4.18/MMBtu, down 8 cents from Wednesday