NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures surged Thursday to their highest levels in more than five weeks after a larger-than-expected weekly draw from U.S. stockpiles.
Natural gas for April delivery settled 22 cents, or 5.6%, higher, at $4.158 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest ending price since Feb. 4.
The Energy Information Administration said U.S. gas stockpiles fell by 56 billion cubic feet last week, more than consensus estimates in a Dow Jones Newswires survey for a 44-bcf draw and a shock to a market that had largely written off the season's remaining gas-heating demand.
"Nobody expected a number like 56," said John Woods, a trader with JJ Woods Associates. "It scared out a lot of the weak shorts in this market," he added, referring to traders who held bets that prices would fall.
Futures were in positive territory ahead of the report, and the upward momentum after its release sent market participants who had bet that prices would fall rushing to close out those positions to limit their losses, traders said.
Benchmark gas futures had spent weeks in subdued trading between about $3.80 and $4, with gains capped by expectations for mild weather and low heating needs, but supported as consumers of the fuel and others looked to buy at what they saw as bargain prices.
Futures found some support this week from speculation that Japanese nuclear power plant outages would spur increased global demand for fuels such as gas, coal and oil products.
"The market was already spooked," said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics in Austin, Texas.
The U.S. isn't a major importer of liquefied natural gas, and has little capacity to export its own stockpiles. But analysts said the likelihood that world-wide fuel inventories would tighten provided an excuse to buy.
The gas market could have trouble holding Thursday's gains amid continued forecasts for mild weather and tepid gas demand, analysts said.
"Prices are going to be under a lot of pressure in the coming weeks," Schenker said.
Weather forecasts for the next two weeks were still mostly mild Thursday, but came in colder across some major gas-heating markets in the upper Midwest and Northeast. "The forecast has turned quite a bit colder overall," MDA EarthSat forecasters said of the outlook for March 22-26 in a note to clients.
The private forecaster still expects mild or warmer-than-normal temperatures through the southcentral and southeastern U.S.
Inventories as of March 11 stood at 1.618 trillion cubic feet, the EIA said, 1.4% above the five-year average, and 1 billion cubic feet above 2010 levels.
.. certo che la situazione è strana.... e pensare che lo dico da giorni.. ma nn ho resistito .sono entrato short e pesante