DJ UPDATE: Cochilco Lowers 2011 Forecast For Chile Copper Output
Ora: 13/09/2011 22:21
Testo: --Cochilco lowers Chile''s 2011 copper output forecast to 5.4 million metric tons, from prior outlook of 5.7 million tons
--Chile to produce 5.9 million tons in 2012, Cochilco says
--Cochilco maintains copper price forecasts of $4.17/lb and $4.04/lb for 2011 and 2012, respectively
(Updates with comments from Codelco''s CEO and Cochilco''s executive VP, and adds details throughout.)
SANTIAGO (Dow Jones)--Chile''s 2011 copper production will likely total 5.4 million metric tons, virtually flat from last year, state copper commission Cochilco said Tuesday.
Cochilco lowered its forecast for Chile''s full-year output from a prior forecast of 5.7 million tons due to production stoppages at some of the Andean nation''s largest mines because of labor strikes and severe weather.
Among other problems faced by Chilean miners, striking unionized workers kept production at the world''s biggest copper mine, Escondida, halted for 15 days.
The strike at Escondida, controlled and operated by global company BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP, BHP.AU), ended on Aug. 5 and likely amounted to 3,000 tons of lost copper production per day, according to market estimates.
Additionally, fifty-five days of protests by contract workers at state giant Corporacion Nacional del Cobre''s El Teniente underground copper mine, cost the state-owned miner, also known as Codelco, 17,000 tons in lost production. A 24-hour strike on July 11, which paralyzed all of Codelco''s divisions, cost the company 7,800 tons of lost copper production, Codelco''s chief executive officer Diego Hernandez said earlier in the day.
For 2012, the South American nation will retain its spot as the world''s largest copper producer, with an expected output of 5.9 million tons versus a previous estimate of 5.8 million tons, Cochilco''s executive vice president, Andres Mac-Lean, said at a presentation of the commission''s forecasts.
The commission maintained its copper price forecast for 2011 at $4.17 a pound. Cochilco also kept its 2012 copper price forecast at $4.04 a pound.
Considering it prices projections, Cochilco estimates Chile will see $57.34 billion in copper exports this year and $61.47 billion in 2012, Mac-Lean said.
Chile, which accounts for a third of global copper production, saw $44.33 billion in red-metal exports in 2010.
According to Cochilco, demand for refined copper will likely increase to 20.2 million tons this year and to 21.0 million tons in 2012, from 19.4 million tons last year.
Global copper production, which includes scrap production, meanwhile, will likely expand to 19.6 million tons in 2011 and then jump to 20.9 million tons in 2012, from 19.1 million tons last year.
Despite slowing global growth, "increased demand from emerging-market nations, such as Russia, has substituted decreasing demand from countries like the U.S.," Mac-Lean said.
For his part, Codelco''s Hernandez said, at a different event, "we''re optimistic in the medium to long term because we believe supply and demand will remain quite tight."
