ETC Natural Gas (74 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione NEO_99
- Data di Inizio
NEO_99
Forumer storico
Ciao Mav, allora scongiurato lo 0.6 ?
peccato essere uscito ieri dal coffe..ed ero uscito in pari sul cacao.
entrato con altre 7 quote su SWEA ..ora 20 pmc 50.8
entrato anche con un microcippino su short corn...
intanto il gas si è avvicinato ai massimi... ..mi era sfuggito il rientro
NEO_99
Forumer storico
Tue Jul 3, 2012 3:14pm EDT
* Front-month below last week's 5-1/2 month high * Heat still on tap in six to 10-day outlooks * Recent storage data, drilling rig data supportive * Coming Up: API oil data Tuesday, EIA oil data Thursday (Updates prices to close, recasts) By Eileen Houlihan NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rosenearly 3 percent on Tuesday, boosted in some pre-holiday shortcovering amid hot weather in much of the nation that hasincreased air conditioning demand. "The natural gas market is probing the upside, supported bycurrent hot temperatures that boost air-conditioning loads andrelated natural gas demand from utilities, leading to lowerstorage injections and a reduced storage surplus in turn," saidCiti Futures energy analyst Tim Evans. Last week nearby futures rose to a 5-1/2 month spot charthigh in what has become a scorching start to summer. But most traders expect little more upside, with priceshovering above the 200-day moving average near $2.83 per millionBritish thermal units. Analysts expect the market will have a hard time breakingthe $3 level, where gas loses its appeal over coal for powergeneration. Front-month August natural gas futures on the New YorkMercantile Exchange rose 7.5 cents, or 2.66 percent, tosettle at $2.899 per mmBtu, after moving in electronic tradebetween $2.786 and $2.902. Other months ended higher as well, with the Septembercontract up 7.9 cents, or near 3 percent, at $2.911, andwinter months up about 6 cents each. NYMEX will be closed on Wednesday for the U.S. IndependenceDay holiday. Last week the front month contract traded as high as $2.946,its highest mark since early January. Since posting a 10-year low of $1.902 twice in late April,nearby futures are up about 53 percent on signs that recordproduction was finally slowing and demand was picking up as moreelectric utilities switched from coal to gas. In the cash market, gas bound for the NYMEX delivery pointHenry Hub NG-W-HH in Louisiana rose 5 cents on average to$2.78, with late deals done about even with the front-monthcontract, little changed from deals done late Monday at a 1-centpremium. Gas on the Transco pipeline at the New York citygateNG-NYCZ6 rose 10 cents to $3, while Chicago gas NG-CHGC was9 cents higher on the day at $2.88. BELOW-AVERAGE BUILDS, BUT STILL BLOATED INVENTORIES Last week's gas storage report from the U.S. EnergyInformation Administration showed total domestic gas inventoriesrose by 57 billion cubic feet to 3.063 trillion cubic feet. The build, while above Reuters poll estimates for a 52 bcfgain, fell well short of last year's gain of 84 bcf and thefive-year average increase for that week of 85 bcf. It was theninth straight week the build was below average. Lagging storage builds this season have raised expectationsthat record-high inventories can be trimmed to more manageablelevels in the 20 weeks left before winter withdrawals begin. The weekly injection trimmed the surplus to last year to 653bcf, or 27 percent, and sliced the excess versus the five-yearaverage to 613 bcf, or 25 percent. (Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s) Total storage is already 75 percent full and hovering at alevel not normally reached until late August. Producing-regionstocks are at 84 percent of estimated capacity. Concerns remain that the storage overhang could still driveprices to new lows this summer as storage caverns fill. The storage surplus to last year will have to be cut by atleast another 405 bcf to avoid reaching the government's 4.1-tcfestimate of total capacity. Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report, whichwill be delayed one day until Friday due to the holiday onWednesday, range from 37 bcf to 55 bcf versus last year's buildof 90 bcf and the five-year average increase for the week of 79bcf. Stocks peaked last year in November at a record 3.852 tcf.The EIA expects gas storage to climb to a record 4.015 tcf bythe end of October. DEMAND UP, PRODUCTION GROWTH SLOWS Gas demand picked up sharply this year as spring prices hit10-year lows and prompted many utilities to use more gas-firedgeneration to produce power. But gas production is still flowingat near-record-high levels despite relatively low prices thathave made many dry gas wells uneconomical. EIA's gross gas production report on Friday showed thatApril output rose 0.8 percent from March to 72.48 bcf per day,just shy of January's record of 72.74 bcf daily. But data from Baker Hughes last week showed the gas-directedrig count fell to 534, its ninth drop in 10 weeks and its lowestlevel since August 1999. (Rig graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s) Horizontal rigs, the type most often used to extract oil orgas from shale, however, rose for a second straight week, and at1,171 are just shy of the record high 1,193 hit six weeks ago. A 43 percent drop in dry gas drilling in the last eightmonths has stirred expectations that producers are gettingserious about stemming the flood of record gas supplies. Dry gas drilling has become largely uneconomical at currentprices, but drillers have been moving rigs to more profitableshale oil and shale gas liquid plays that still produce plentyof associated gas that ends up in the market after processing. That has slowed the overall drop in dry gas output. MORE FUNDAMENTALS The National Weather Service's six to 10-day outlook issuedon Monday called for above-normal readings for much of thenation, with normal readings in the Northeast, Florida and inTexas. Nuclear power plant outages were running at about 8,500megawatts, or 8 percent, on Tuesday, up from 5,100 MW out a yearago and a five-year outage rate of just 3,900 MW. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said tropical cycloneformation was not expected over the next 48 hours. The Atlantichurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. The latest government statistics show the Gulf of Mexicoaccounts for 6 percent of U.S. gas production and just over 20percent of U.S. oil production.
* Front-month below last week's 5-1/2 month high * Heat still on tap in six to 10-day outlooks * Recent storage data, drilling rig data supportive * Coming Up: API oil data Tuesday, EIA oil data Thursday (Updates prices to close, recasts) By Eileen Houlihan NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rosenearly 3 percent on Tuesday, boosted in some pre-holiday shortcovering amid hot weather in much of the nation that hasincreased air conditioning demand. "The natural gas market is probing the upside, supported bycurrent hot temperatures that boost air-conditioning loads andrelated natural gas demand from utilities, leading to lowerstorage injections and a reduced storage surplus in turn," saidCiti Futures energy analyst Tim Evans. Last week nearby futures rose to a 5-1/2 month spot charthigh in what has become a scorching start to summer. But most traders expect little more upside, with priceshovering above the 200-day moving average near $2.83 per millionBritish thermal units. Analysts expect the market will have a hard time breakingthe $3 level, where gas loses its appeal over coal for powergeneration. Front-month August natural gas futures on the New YorkMercantile Exchange rose 7.5 cents, or 2.66 percent, tosettle at $2.899 per mmBtu, after moving in electronic tradebetween $2.786 and $2.902. Other months ended higher as well, with the Septembercontract up 7.9 cents, or near 3 percent, at $2.911, andwinter months up about 6 cents each. NYMEX will be closed on Wednesday for the U.S. IndependenceDay holiday. Last week the front month contract traded as high as $2.946,its highest mark since early January. Since posting a 10-year low of $1.902 twice in late April,nearby futures are up about 53 percent on signs that recordproduction was finally slowing and demand was picking up as moreelectric utilities switched from coal to gas. In the cash market, gas bound for the NYMEX delivery pointHenry Hub NG-W-HH in Louisiana rose 5 cents on average to$2.78, with late deals done about even with the front-monthcontract, little changed from deals done late Monday at a 1-centpremium. Gas on the Transco pipeline at the New York citygateNG-NYCZ6 rose 10 cents to $3, while Chicago gas NG-CHGC was9 cents higher on the day at $2.88. BELOW-AVERAGE BUILDS, BUT STILL BLOATED INVENTORIES Last week's gas storage report from the U.S. EnergyInformation Administration showed total domestic gas inventoriesrose by 57 billion cubic feet to 3.063 trillion cubic feet. The build, while above Reuters poll estimates for a 52 bcfgain, fell well short of last year's gain of 84 bcf and thefive-year average increase for that week of 85 bcf. It was theninth straight week the build was below average. Lagging storage builds this season have raised expectationsthat record-high inventories can be trimmed to more manageablelevels in the 20 weeks left before winter withdrawals begin. The weekly injection trimmed the surplus to last year to 653bcf, or 27 percent, and sliced the excess versus the five-yearaverage to 613 bcf, or 25 percent. (Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s) Total storage is already 75 percent full and hovering at alevel not normally reached until late August. Producing-regionstocks are at 84 percent of estimated capacity. Concerns remain that the storage overhang could still driveprices to new lows this summer as storage caverns fill. The storage surplus to last year will have to be cut by atleast another 405 bcf to avoid reaching the government's 4.1-tcfestimate of total capacity. Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report, whichwill be delayed one day until Friday due to the holiday onWednesday, range from 37 bcf to 55 bcf versus last year's buildof 90 bcf and the five-year average increase for the week of 79bcf. Stocks peaked last year in November at a record 3.852 tcf.The EIA expects gas storage to climb to a record 4.015 tcf bythe end of October. DEMAND UP, PRODUCTION GROWTH SLOWS Gas demand picked up sharply this year as spring prices hit10-year lows and prompted many utilities to use more gas-firedgeneration to produce power. But gas production is still flowingat near-record-high levels despite relatively low prices thathave made many dry gas wells uneconomical. EIA's gross gas production report on Friday showed thatApril output rose 0.8 percent from March to 72.48 bcf per day,just shy of January's record of 72.74 bcf daily. But data from Baker Hughes last week showed the gas-directedrig count fell to 534, its ninth drop in 10 weeks and its lowestlevel since August 1999. (Rig graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s) Horizontal rigs, the type most often used to extract oil orgas from shale, however, rose for a second straight week, and at1,171 are just shy of the record high 1,193 hit six weeks ago. A 43 percent drop in dry gas drilling in the last eightmonths has stirred expectations that producers are gettingserious about stemming the flood of record gas supplies. Dry gas drilling has become largely uneconomical at currentprices, but drillers have been moving rigs to more profitableshale oil and shale gas liquid plays that still produce plentyof associated gas that ends up in the market after processing. That has slowed the overall drop in dry gas output. MORE FUNDAMENTALS The National Weather Service's six to 10-day outlook issuedon Monday called for above-normal readings for much of thenation, with normal readings in the Northeast, Florida and inTexas. Nuclear power plant outages were running at about 8,500megawatts, or 8 percent, on Tuesday, up from 5,100 MW out a yearago and a five-year outage rate of just 3,900 MW. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said tropical cycloneformation was not expected over the next 48 hours. The Atlantichurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. The latest government statistics show the Gulf of Mexicoaccounts for 6 percent of U.S. gas production and just over 20percent of U.S. oil production.
NEO_99
Forumer storico
NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) - Cotton futures rose on Monday
for the fourth day, although it gained less than other
commodities due to concerns about a global surplus of the fiber.
Benchmark December cotton on ICE Futures U.S. rose
0.8 percent to settle at 72.60 cents per lb, holding the
two-week highs hit the previous day. Trading volumes were lower
on the eve of the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
Cotton prices got a boost from grains, which surged due to
fears that relentless heat would damage crops. Soybean prices
jumped to their highest levels since 2008.
Cotton has underperformed the broader commodities market due
to concerns about a global oversupply. The 19-commodity Thomson
Reuters-Jefferies CRB index gained more than 2 percent to
a six-week high on Tuesday, boosted by a stronger euro and
short-covering.
The blazing heat and drought stretching across the U.S. Corn
Belt have not affected cotton-growing areas, although traders
said they are hoping for rainfall in key-growing areas of
Tennessee, Mississippi and Louisiana soon.
"In the mid-south, we've been without rain for three weeks.
There's a concern, although it's not yet critical. If there's
still no rain this time next week, cotton will start moving up,"
said a major U.S. trader.
Cotton is hardier than grains and can survive on less water.
In contrast to the United States, rains in North East China
and India, other major growing regions, are expected to help
crops, which has raised concerns about oversupply, he said.
for the fourth day, although it gained less than other
commodities due to concerns about a global surplus of the fiber.
Benchmark December cotton on ICE Futures U.S. rose
0.8 percent to settle at 72.60 cents per lb, holding the
two-week highs hit the previous day. Trading volumes were lower
on the eve of the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
Cotton prices got a boost from grains, which surged due to
fears that relentless heat would damage crops. Soybean prices
jumped to their highest levels since 2008.
Cotton has underperformed the broader commodities market due
to concerns about a global oversupply. The 19-commodity Thomson
Reuters-Jefferies CRB index gained more than 2 percent to
a six-week high on Tuesday, boosted by a stronger euro and
short-covering.
The blazing heat and drought stretching across the U.S. Corn
Belt have not affected cotton-growing areas, although traders
said they are hoping for rainfall in key-growing areas of
Tennessee, Mississippi and Louisiana soon.
"In the mid-south, we've been without rain for three weeks.
There's a concern, although it's not yet critical. If there's
still no rain this time next week, cotton will start moving up,"
said a major U.S. trader.
Cotton is hardier than grains and can survive on less water.
In contrast to the United States, rains in North East China
and India, other major growing regions, are expected to help
crops, which has raised concerns about oversupply, he said.
mavtop
Forumer storico
Ciao Mav, allora scongiurato lo 0.6 ?
peccato essere uscito ieri dal coffe..ed ero uscito in pari sul cacao.
entrato con altre 7 quote su SWEA ..ora 20 pmc 50.8
entrato anche con un microcippino su short corn...
intanto il gas si è avvicinato ai massimi... ..mi era sfuggito il rientro
diciamo Neo che per ISP per ora c'e' una fase LONG, pero' ripeto se il siamo nel 4o intermedio dobbiamo scendere prima o poi sotto il minimo di partenza che era nei pressi di 0,9x non ricordo (vedi nell'analisi) quindi dire gia che e' scongiurato lo 0,6 e' presto per dirlo.
Godiamoci la fase LONG che ripeto non so quanto durera' le swing ribassiste daranno il segnale di allarme.
Il Coffee sembrerebbe voler raggiungere quota 182,15$ necessaria a chiudere l'annuale sull'inverso, o lo fara' domani (oggi chiusa la borsa sugli agricoli) oppure se ne riparla nel prossimo mensile.
Il Cacao anche potrebbe arrivare a quota 2363 dove c'e' il minimo di inizio mensile inverso (se non ricordo male) e poi tornerebbe a scendere per indicare la partenza del nuovo.
cort
Forumer storico
mavtop
Forumer storico
Cotton Future
Per ora non chiudo il 1o mensile con soli 18gg non avendo ancora la conferma temporale, pero' tenetelo in mente.
Vi ricordo anche che il 1o T+1 al rialzo indicherebbe che un nuovo T+3 sia iniziato, avendo gia avuto da tempo la conferma sul prezzo ho chiuso (anche se lo avevo gia fatto da tempo) l'intermedio sul ciclo normale.
Sul ciclo inverso siamo nel 6o giorno dell'ultimo Tracy inverso, praticamente ci troviamo nel 4o T-1 inverso che potra' avere solo barre daily ribassiste (rialziste sul ciclo normale), il Tracy inverso avrebbe spazio comunque per un T-2 ribassista in generale, quindi o abbiamo finito il ribasso (rialzo sul ciclo normale) oppure abbiamo ancora un T-2 da fare al ribasso (rialzo sul ciclo normale).
Cosa mi aspetto ?
Chiusura dei cicli T-1 sul ciclo normale ed inverso ed inizio di nuovi cicli T-1.
Il mercato ha sentenziato temporalmente che un nuovo ciclo Tracy e' iniziato, piu' in generale mi aspetto che sia iniziato almeno un nuovo ciclo T+1 poiche' abbiamo superato le swing rialziste del T+1 e T+2 ovviamente solo il tempo lo confermera' con un T-1 al rialzo (che sembra essersi quasi concluso) e successivamente con un Tracy al rialzo tale ipotesi.Originalmente inviato da mavtop
Il mercato ha confermato facendo il T-1 al ribasso, ora vedremo se continuera' con un ulteriore ribasso oppure
nel T-1 attuale e' ammesso un T-3 (daily) al ribasso, in caso di T-3 al rialzo avremo un nuovo T-1
nel Tracy attuale e' ammesso un T-2 al ribasso, in caso di T-2 al rialzo avremo un nuovo Tracy
Cosa mi aspetto ?
La chiusura del T-1 inverso (quindi saliremo sul ciclo normale) tra oggi e lunedi al massimo, questo implichera' l'inizio di un nuovo T-1 sul ciclo normale.
Per ora non chiudo il 1o mensile con soli 18gg non avendo ancora la conferma temporale, pero' tenetelo in mente.
Vi ricordo anche che il 1o T+1 al rialzo indicherebbe che un nuovo T+3 sia iniziato, avendo gia avuto da tempo la conferma sul prezzo ho chiuso (anche se lo avevo gia fatto da tempo) l'intermedio sul ciclo normale.
Sul ciclo inverso siamo nel 6o giorno dell'ultimo Tracy inverso, praticamente ci troviamo nel 4o T-1 inverso che potra' avere solo barre daily ribassiste (rialziste sul ciclo normale), il Tracy inverso avrebbe spazio comunque per un T-2 ribassista in generale, quindi o abbiamo finito il ribasso (rialzo sul ciclo normale) oppure abbiamo ancora un T-2 da fare al ribasso (rialzo sul ciclo normale).
Cosa mi aspetto ?
Chiusura dei cicli T-1 sul ciclo normale ed inverso ed inizio di nuovi cicli T-1.
