Sera a tutti. Ecco le previsioni diBen:
Storage for EIA report date 2/14/13
this weeks storage poll is for week ending 2/8 and reported by EIA on 2/14.
observation:
temperatures last week were approximately average on a population weighted degree basis, but much colder than the week prior and the same week last year.
residential and commercial demand increased by around 41bcf from the week earlier.
further helping demand this winter is increased industrial demand and exports to mexico.
the primary weakness relative to last year is this winter's weather adjusted power burns levels.
nuclear outages were low last week, further cutting into gas generation demand.
supply remained relatively unchanged, down by just over 1bcf from the week prior.
according to my 4wk rolling storage model, eia has balanced out with the last two lower reports, leading me to believe this week should come in closer to market expectations.
storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 216 (1cdd 215hdd)
previous week: 188(3cdd 185hdd)
same week last yr: 162 (3cdd 159hdd)
avg: 215 (1cdd 214hdd)
next wk fcst: 186 (2cdd 184hdd)
* source: NOAA
storage:
same week last yr: -113
5-yr avg: -154
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my estimate is -166 bcf