Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures may fall as above-normal temperatures lead to rising inventories of the heating fuel, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Ten of 19 analysts, or 53 percent, forecast that gas futures will decline on the New York Mercantile Exchange through Oct. 29. Five, or 26 percent, predicted prices will stay the same and four said futures will rise. Last week, 50 percent of participants said gas would fall.
Warmer-than-normal weather is likely along the U.S. East Coast through Oct. 30, according to Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland. New York may have a high of 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 Celsius) on Oct. 26, 10 degrees above normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.
“Mild temperatures are pressuring the market lower,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics in Austin, Texas. “Injections into storage have been quite large and have continued to surprise to the upside for the past couple of weeks.”
About 52 percent of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.
Natural gas for November delivery fell 20.3 cents, or 5.7 percent, to $3.332 per million British thermal units this week on the New York exchange.
Stockpile Gain
Stockpiles rose 93 billion cubic feet to 3.683 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Oct. 15, the Energy Department said yesterday. A surplus to the five-year average increased to 8.4 percent from 7.4 percent the previous week. A deficit to year- earlier supplies narrowed to 1.3 percent from 3.2 percent. The five-year average gain for the week is 54 billion cubic feet.
U.S. gas inventories will peak at 3.726 trillion cubic feet by the end of this month, the second-highest level ever for the start of a heating season, the Energy Department predicted in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Oct. 13. Inventories reached a record 3.837 trillion cubic feet last November.
The department lowered its forecasts for gas prices by 1.5 percent as higher production offsets demand. Benchmark gas prices at the Henry Hub in Louisiana will average $4.47 per million British thermal units this year, down from September’s estimate of $4.54, the department said.
Wholesale natural gas at the Henry Hub fell 27.48 cents, or 7.9 percent, to $3.1856 per million Btu today on the Intercontinental Exchange.
The gas survey has correctly forecast the direction of prices 48 percent of the time since its June 2004 introduction.
Bloomberg’s survey of natural-gas analysts and traders asks for an assessment of whether Nymex natural-gas futures will probably rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. This week’s results were:
RISE FALL NEUTRAL
4 10 5
.. spero nn arrivi a quei livelli ma col gas tutto è possibile, se un bottom ci sara' avverra' a breve ..dare un indicazione di livello è difficile dipende su che scadenza future avviene, tra 3 giorni esce di scena novembre. cmq tra i tanti mi sembri il messo meglio.
