Le previsioni di Ben sembrerebbero ancora bullish:
Storage for EIA report date 10/4/12
this weeks storage poll is for week ending 9/28 and reported by EIA on 10/4.
observation:
temperatures were slightly cooler than the week earlier, and cooler than the same week last yr and avg.
switching levels still holding strong despite the recent rally in nat gas prices and low coal price.
high nuclear outage along with lower hydro output is keeping utility gas demand strong.
total supply roughly similar to the week earlier.
strong supply growth last fall compared to flat supply this year is narrowing the yoy surplus.
high storage pressures at many facilities and pipelines is slowing injection rates, particularly in the producing region where stocks are 16% above the 5yr average.
my weather regressions indicates around 60 bcf injection while pipeline scrape data is pointing towards 68.
storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 63 (29cdd 34hdd)
previous week: 53 (30cdd 23hdd)
same week last yr: 59 (39cdd 20hdd)
avg: 57 (27cdd 29hdd)
* source: NOAA
storage:
same week last yr: +101
5-yr avg: +78
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my estimate is +65 bcf
Notte!
