ETC Natural Gas
- Creatore Discussione NEO_99
- Data di Inizio
mavtop
Forumer storico
azz che pmc avevi ?
io sono uscito subito dallo short...avevo un pmc di 44
solo che volevo finirla con gli etc... ora ho solo 75 quote di lcoc.
avevo un pmc totale di 49,3581 (3 mediate)
ma ero uscito in gain con le ultime due mediate, ma mi ero lasciato la parte con pmc piu' alto rimasto a 53,3975
ovvio che data la situazione attuale potrei pensare di uscire in pari/leggero gain/leggero loss, dipende da come evolve la situazione nei prox giorni.
NEO_99
Forumer storico
USDA Acreage & Stocks Report Summary
Edgard Cabanillas of Lido Isle Advisors - IF - Thu Mar 28, 3:34PM CDT
The USDA issued their quarterly March 1 stocks report and first seasonal Planting Intentions Report which outlines spring planting intentions for the U.S. farmer.
Acreage Estimates (2013/14):
Corn 97.3 mln acres (+ 0% vs. 2012)
Sorghum 7.62 mln acres (+ 22 %)
Oats 2.90 mln acres (+ 5 %)
Soybeans 77.1 mln acres (+ 0 %)
All Wheat 56.44 mln acres (+ 1 %)
Winter 41.988 mln acres (+ 2 %)
Other Spring 12.70 mln acres (+ 3 %)
Rice 2.61 mln acres (- 3 %)
Canola 1.65 mln acres (- 6 %)
Soybeans 77.1 mln acres (+ 0 %)
Sunflower 1.684 mln acres (- 12 %)
Cotton 10.02 mln acres (- 19 %)
Give the current prices of Dec corn $ 5.37 1/2, it is not too surprising that we see a similar acreage number for corn in 2013/14. What is interesting is that the southern states (AL, AK, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, MO, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA, WV) have increased their cumulative acreage to 12.459 mln, which is 12.8 % of total U.S. acreage for corn, vs. last year which was only 11.9 %. Prices for new crop corn were at similar levels during planting season, so I believe that we will see early bushels in Aug/ Sept coming to the market from these states (AGW with weather) from corn & sorghum acres. Texas is expected to have 3 mln acres (+ 30 %) of milo going into the ground in 2013/14 which will compete with corn during Aug/Sept. I believe that Sept/Dec corn spread will trend towards a carry vs. currently at 24 cent inverse. I also believe that, assuming we get decent June weather, U.S. carryout could gravitate towards 2.0 bln bu +.
As for the wheat acres, USDA is projecting a slight increase of 2 % vs. last year for winter wheat acres. However, as we look into the HRW country, most of the heavy hitters in production like OK, TX, KS, NE, SD, MT, and CO are actually going to have fewer acres by 2.0 % at 27.400 mln. The gain is all in the SRW country for about 24 % increase in major states like AR, IL, IN, KY, MI, MO, NC, OH, TN, and WI. All going well with weather, I believe that spreads in the new crop months will start to widen out July-forward for both Chicago and KC. I believe we could also see something similar in Mpls but spreads have already been widening in U/Z there for a while now, so it is somewhat limited as full carry is 26 cent vs. 9 cent carry currently.
The oilseed complex looks a little more interesting as it seems from the USDA forecasts that all competing oilseeds (including canola, sunflower, peanuts, ottonseed and soybeans) will have fewer acres overall dedicated to their production. Soybean acres is expected by USDA to be unchanged vs. last year. This could make a rather interesting scenario come this summer and fall in my opinion. An already tight stocks scenario for the U.S. oilseeds balance sheet is our reality now as we have seen spreads narrow in soybeans and canola over the recent months due to smaller U.S. crop and South American logistical problems. I still believe that spreads in soybeans and meal will continue to narrow due to tight supplies in the coming months.
Cotton acres are forecasted to reach 10 mln for 2013/14, which means I believe that cotton will probably have to travel higher in order to buy acres away from other commodities like corn & soybeans. We have seen consistently strong export sales to China and other destinations for U.S. cotton over the last several to keep the N/Z inverse near 3.00 cent, which typically starts to erode as competing origins usually take over (i.e. Australia, Argentina and Southern Hemisphere origins). This has not happened quite yet, so I believe we will continue to see cotton travel higher and spreads narrow.
For all intents and purposes, it seems that the stocks report for grains was bearish as the numbers came out this morning as final results were higher than market expectations-
CORN 5.398 bln bushels
SORGHUM 91.391 bln bushels
ALL WHEAT 1.234 bln bushels
SOYBEANS 0.999 bln bushels
Still what was interesting is that the K/N in corn held its ground very well. I still believe that nearby corn and soybean spreads will hold their ground currently as farmers will probably, in my opinion, shut off the selling spicket with this downdraft in corn and soybean prices.
Edgard Cabanillas of Lido Isle Advisors - IF - Thu Mar 28, 3:34PM CDT
The USDA issued their quarterly March 1 stocks report and first seasonal Planting Intentions Report which outlines spring planting intentions for the U.S. farmer.
Acreage Estimates (2013/14):
Corn 97.3 mln acres (+ 0% vs. 2012)
Sorghum 7.62 mln acres (+ 22 %)
Oats 2.90 mln acres (+ 5 %)
Soybeans 77.1 mln acres (+ 0 %)
All Wheat 56.44 mln acres (+ 1 %)
Winter 41.988 mln acres (+ 2 %)
Other Spring 12.70 mln acres (+ 3 %)
Rice 2.61 mln acres (- 3 %)
Canola 1.65 mln acres (- 6 %)
Soybeans 77.1 mln acres (+ 0 %)
Sunflower 1.684 mln acres (- 12 %)
Cotton 10.02 mln acres (- 19 %)
Give the current prices of Dec corn $ 5.37 1/2, it is not too surprising that we see a similar acreage number for corn in 2013/14. What is interesting is that the southern states (AL, AK, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, MO, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA, WV) have increased their cumulative acreage to 12.459 mln, which is 12.8 % of total U.S. acreage for corn, vs. last year which was only 11.9 %. Prices for new crop corn were at similar levels during planting season, so I believe that we will see early bushels in Aug/ Sept coming to the market from these states (AGW with weather) from corn & sorghum acres. Texas is expected to have 3 mln acres (+ 30 %) of milo going into the ground in 2013/14 which will compete with corn during Aug/Sept. I believe that Sept/Dec corn spread will trend towards a carry vs. currently at 24 cent inverse. I also believe that, assuming we get decent June weather, U.S. carryout could gravitate towards 2.0 bln bu +.
As for the wheat acres, USDA is projecting a slight increase of 2 % vs. last year for winter wheat acres. However, as we look into the HRW country, most of the heavy hitters in production like OK, TX, KS, NE, SD, MT, and CO are actually going to have fewer acres by 2.0 % at 27.400 mln. The gain is all in the SRW country for about 24 % increase in major states like AR, IL, IN, KY, MI, MO, NC, OH, TN, and WI. All going well with weather, I believe that spreads in the new crop months will start to widen out July-forward for both Chicago and KC. I believe we could also see something similar in Mpls but spreads have already been widening in U/Z there for a while now, so it is somewhat limited as full carry is 26 cent vs. 9 cent carry currently.
The oilseed complex looks a little more interesting as it seems from the USDA forecasts that all competing oilseeds (including canola, sunflower, peanuts, ottonseed and soybeans) will have fewer acres overall dedicated to their production. Soybean acres is expected by USDA to be unchanged vs. last year. This could make a rather interesting scenario come this summer and fall in my opinion. An already tight stocks scenario for the U.S. oilseeds balance sheet is our reality now as we have seen spreads narrow in soybeans and canola over the recent months due to smaller U.S. crop and South American logistical problems. I still believe that spreads in soybeans and meal will continue to narrow due to tight supplies in the coming months.
Cotton acres are forecasted to reach 10 mln for 2013/14, which means I believe that cotton will probably have to travel higher in order to buy acres away from other commodities like corn & soybeans. We have seen consistently strong export sales to China and other destinations for U.S. cotton over the last several to keep the N/Z inverse near 3.00 cent, which typically starts to erode as competing origins usually take over (i.e. Australia, Argentina and Southern Hemisphere origins). This has not happened quite yet, so I believe we will continue to see cotton travel higher and spreads narrow.
For all intents and purposes, it seems that the stocks report for grains was bearish as the numbers came out this morning as final results were higher than market expectations-
CORN 5.398 bln bushels
SORGHUM 91.391 bln bushels
ALL WHEAT 1.234 bln bushels
SOYBEANS 0.999 bln bushels
Still what was interesting is that the K/N in corn held its ground very well. I still believe that nearby corn and soybean spreads will hold their ground currently as farmers will probably, in my opinion, shut off the selling spicket with this downdraft in corn and soybean prices.
Donzauker
Forumer attivo
Un saluto a tutti. Spero abbiate passato una buona pasqua.
Come aprirà secondo voi la borsa? un tracollo?
Vi posto le previsioni di Ben per il gas.... sembrerebbero ancora bullish
Storage for EIA report date 4/4/13
this weeks storage poll is for week ending 3/29 and reported by EIA on 4/4.
observation:
temperatures were slightly colder than the week prior, and remained substantially colder than average and last yr.
final temperatures came in slightly warmer than what had been forecast.
high nuclear outages along with colder conditions in the south helped boost demand for power generation. power burns increased by around 9bcf from the week earlier.
offsetting generation gains was declines in res/comm and industrial use by around the same amount.
total supply increased by 1bcf on the week as imports increased slightly.
storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 170 (2cdd 168hdd)
previous week: 168 (4cdd 164hdd)
same week last yr: 65 (14cdd 51hdd)
avg: 148 (4cdd 164hdd)
* source: NOAA
storage:
same week last yr: 43
5-yr avg: 4
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my current estimate is -93 bcf
Come aprirà secondo voi la borsa? un tracollo?
Vi posto le previsioni di Ben per il gas.... sembrerebbero ancora bullish
Storage for EIA report date 4/4/13
this weeks storage poll is for week ending 3/29 and reported by EIA on 4/4.
observation:
temperatures were slightly colder than the week prior, and remained substantially colder than average and last yr.
final temperatures came in slightly warmer than what had been forecast.
high nuclear outages along with colder conditions in the south helped boost demand for power generation. power burns increased by around 9bcf from the week earlier.
offsetting generation gains was declines in res/comm and industrial use by around the same amount.
total supply increased by 1bcf on the week as imports increased slightly.
storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 170 (2cdd 168hdd)
previous week: 168 (4cdd 164hdd)
same week last yr: 65 (14cdd 51hdd)
avg: 148 (4cdd 164hdd)
* source: NOAA
storage:
same week last yr: 43
5-yr avg: 4
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my current estimate is -93 bcf
NEO_99
Forumer storico
meglio il corn
mavtop
Forumer storico
Silver Future
SOTTOSTANTE:
Premesso quanto sopra riposto i target del T+7 corretti:
- < 26,070$
- fibo 61,8% a 24,30$ e mm sul 64gg con 40%
- fibo 76,40$ e mm sul 128gg a 18,27$ con 5%
Il T+1 attuale non permette un T-1 al rialzo, se cio' accadesse daremmo per iniziato un nuovo T+1, ovviamente anche se superiamo i 28,81$
Il T+2 attuale non permette un Tracy al rialzo, se cio' accadesse daremmo per iniziato un nuovo T+2, ovviamente anche se superiamo i 28,845$.
Aggiungo che la finestra temporale indicata da me (AREA ARANCIONE) per il minimo del T+4 ed eventualmente del T+6 in corso e' giunta alla fine.
Ovviamente un minimo e' stato trovato, ma potrebbe non essere il minimo finale, ricordo che la mia ipotesi iniziale era che con questo T+4 sarebbe terminato l'annuale precedente, ma visto che cosi non e' stato la finestra temporale finale andra' spostata ovviamente sulla conclusione del prossimo T+4. Ne riparleremo comunque piu' avanti.
INVERSO:
Il secondo mensile inverso e' giunto a 24gg di vita (con oggi) se scendesse (salisse sul sottostante) sotto (sopra sul sottostante) i 28,845$ andrebbe ad invertire/chiudere.
Attualmente non abbiamo vincoli alcuni.
Cosa mi aspetto ?
Entro il 4-Aprile mi aspetterei la chiusura del Tracy sul sottostante e successivamente quella del Tracy inverso.
Il primo supporto importante e' posizionato a 26,070$ (ultimo minimo) e credo che sara' il 1o punto di arrivo. Questo costituira' un punto nodale, rotto quel supporto i target indicati sopra potrebbero diventare realta'.
SOTTOSTANTE:
Premesso quanto sopra riposto i target del T+7 corretti:
- < 26,070$
- fibo 61,8% a 24,30$ e mm sul 64gg con 40%
- fibo 76,40$ e mm sul 128gg a 18,27$ con 5%
Dopo 20gg di vita il mensile del sottostante diventa ribassista, ora di tempo ne abbiamo ancora molto per chiudere il mensile, ma incominciamo a mettere dei paletti.
Il T+1 attuale non permette un T-1 al rialzo, se cio' accadesse daremmo per iniziato un nuovo T+1, ovviamente anche se superiamo i 28,81$
Il T+2 attuale non permette un Tracy al rialzo, se cio' accadesse daremmo per iniziato un nuovo T+2, ovviamente anche se superiamo i 28,845$.
Aggiungo che la finestra temporale indicata da me (AREA ARANCIONE) per il minimo del T+4 ed eventualmente del T+6 in corso e' giunta alla fine.
Ovviamente un minimo e' stato trovato, ma potrebbe non essere il minimo finale, ricordo che la mia ipotesi iniziale era che con questo T+4 sarebbe terminato l'annuale precedente, ma visto che cosi non e' stato la finestra temporale finale andra' spostata ovviamente sulla conclusione del prossimo T+4. Ne riparleremo comunque piu' avanti.
INVERSO:
Il secondo mensile inverso e' giunto a 24gg di vita (con oggi) se scendesse (salisse sul sottostante) sotto (sopra sul sottostante) i 28,845$ andrebbe ad invertire/chiudere.
Attualmente non abbiamo vincoli alcuni.
Cosa mi aspetto ?
Mi sembra che i 2gg ipotizzati sono bastati per chiarire le idee, ed il mensile del sottostante si e' trasformato in ribassista (ripeto segnali c'erano gia stati).
Entro il 4-Aprile mi aspetterei la chiusura del Tracy sul sottostante e successivamente quella del Tracy inverso.
Il primo supporto importante e' posizionato a 26,070$ (ultimo minimo) e credo che sara' il 1o punto di arrivo. Questo costituira' un punto nodale, rotto quel supporto i target indicati sopra potrebbero diventare realta'.
Ultima modifica:
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