Il downgrade di Fiat da parte di S&P...
Attenzione perché questo dato non mi pare sia emerso in quanto letto sulla stampa italiana: l'agenzia enfatizza la circostanza, nell'effettuare la riduzione di rating, di cui si parlava con Capirex e con altri in questo ed in altri 3D, ossia quella per cui Fiat al momento non ha la liquidità necessaria per fare fronte alla scadenze debitorie nei prossimi 12 mesi.
Per tale ragione i rating rimangono ancora sotto osservazione per un possibile ulteriore abbattimento legato alla situazione della liquidità, a maggior ragione se, come sembra estremamente probabile, Fiat brucerà cassa nel 2009.
Se Fiat non riesce a procurarsi un sostegno ai livelli di liquidità (bancario o di altro tipo), il rating potrebbe calare drasticamente nei prossimi mesi. Solo ove un tale tentativo avesse successo, si potrebbe assistere ad una stabilizzazione del rating sui livelli attuali.
Circa Chrysler, S&P dà per assunto che - se l'alleanza dovesse effettivamente realizzarsi, non ci sia alcuna uscita di cash (sarebbe suicida, nella situazione attuale) o impegno in tal senso da parte di Fiat, ma anche il livello di coinvolgimento di risorse diverse dal cash (if any ... viene precisato) meriterà un attento scrutinio.
Insomma, una situazione all'insegna di una grande precarietà.
Carmaker Fiat SpA Becomes A Fallen Angel On Downgrade To 'BB+/B' Re Weak Liquidity; Long-Term Rating Still On Watch Neg
MILAN (Standard & Poor's) March 31, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has lowered its long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on Italian industrial group Fiat SpA to 'BB+/B' from 'BBB-/A-3'. The long-term rating remains on CreditWatch with negative implications, where it was placed on Jan. 22, 2009, while the short-term rating was removed from CreditWatch.
Standard & Poor's also lowered to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' its long-term ratings
on the senior unsecured debt issues of wholly owned subsidiaries Fiat Finance & Trade Ltd. and Fiat Finance North America Inc. These ratings remain on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, we assigned a recovery of rating of '3' to these issues, indicating our expectation of meaningful (50%-70%) recovery in the event of a payment default.
"The downgrade reflects our opinion of Fiat's weak liquidity position
considering 2009 and 2010 debt maturities," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Barbara Castellano. "According to reported data as of Dec. 31, 2008, Fiat did not have enough available financial resources in the form of bank lines and existing cash to fully cover its financial maturities in the subsequent 12 months, barring the repayment by subsidiary CNH Global N.V. (BB+/Watch Neg/--) of some intercompany loans."
We note the deterioration of global demand in the auto and truck sectors, as well as difficult capital-market conditions worldwide. This lower demand could, in our view, negatively affect Fiat's operating performance and increase the risk of it having to burn cash again in 2009.
"The continued CreditWatch listing reflects our intention to review
Fiat's measures to improve its liquidity position over the coming months," said Ms. Castellano.
We do not expect Fiat to commit any significant funds to support Chrysler LLC (CC/Negative/--) following the U.S. government's most recent analysis of Chrysler's financial needs to survive. Still, we expect more details in the coming weeks on the proposed Chrysler-Fiat alliance.
Fiat reported sound operating performance in 2008, increasing its trading margin to 5.7%, from 5.5% in 2007. However, reported free operating cash flow was a negative €4.8 billion, and reported industrial debt increased by about €6 billion, to €5.9 billion.
In 2008, the financial services business CNH Capital Corp. had to cope
with the decline in demand for asset-backed securities (ABS), and the group's industrial companies were called on to provide financial support.
We believe that interest in ABS could be recovering and that CNH Capital could also benefit from the U.S. Federal Reserve's TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility) program set to start in April 2009.
"We aim to resolve the CreditWatch placement within the next 90 days,
after reviewing any measures Fiat takes to improve its tight liquidity
position," said Ms. Castellano.
We expect some benefit to come from the securitization of CNH Capital's
financial receivables, as these should be supported by the TALF program in the U.S.
During this period, we also expect to receive further details on Fiat's
precise involvement in Chrysler. We currently assume that if the alliance is finalized, it will not involve any cash drain for Fiat, but we still need clarification on the level of engagement of nonfinancial resources, if any.
"A downgrade is possible if we believe that the group's liquidity
situation will remain weak and insufficient to cover financial obligations over the next 12 months," said Ms. Castellano.
Standard & Poor's could also lower the ratings if, contrary to information that is currently in the public domain, it sees evidence that Fiat's involvement with Chrysler translates into cash outflows, or if it foresees the likelihood of a prolonged deterioration in auto demand beyond the
current year, leading to a worsening of the group's financial measures beyond the already expected weak 2009 levels.
In contrast, an affirmation is possible if Fiat succeeds in strengthening
its liquidity position
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