Report di Fitch sul comparto in area EU che postula un calo dei prezzi dell'oil, non compatibili con l'attuale scenario macro, secondo l'agenzia...
Fitch: Oil Price Correction Poses Risk to European Producers
22 Mar 2010 4:00 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-22 March 2010: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that a potential correction to crude oil prices poses risks to European integrated oil major's ability to control operating costs and enhance profit margins, especially in their downstream segments. Furthermore, a prolonged downturn in oil prices or continued difficulty in the refining sector could delay cash generation needed for companies to meet their strategic goals and thus have a negative impact on ratings.
"A widening gap appears to be developing between upward crude oil price momentum in the futures market and supply and demand fundamentals on the ground," says Jeffrey Woodruff, Senior Director in Fitch's Corporate Energy team in London. "If oil prices start to trend lower over an extended period, European oil companies may not be able to generate sufficient operating cash flow to return credit metrics to more normal levels."
As European oil majors increased borrowings in 2009 to fund capex and dividends during the downturn in the business cycle, their financial profiles have deteriorated alongside slower cash flow generation. Whilst Fitch rates issuers on a "through-the-cycle" basis using its conservative oil price view, for credit ratios to return to mid-cycle levels, companies will need to begin demonstrating in 2010 that business conditions are improving and cash flow generation is materialising.
As the second quarter of 2010 approaches, momentum behind economic recovery appears to be slowing in some OECD regions, while growth in emerging markets like India and China is stronger.
Given the impact of any slowing economic recovery in developed markets on oil prices ahead of a seasonal decrease in demand for crude oil and oil products in the northern hemisphere, Fitch anticipates European oil companies will be even more vigilant in controlling costs in 2010 if they are to preserve profit margins, maintain cash flows and limit reliance on borrowings.
This is especially true for the downstream sector, which faces a particularly challenging operating environment in the face of continued slow demand growth, large idle capacity, low utilisation rates and persistently high inventories.
Economic developments in the second quarter of 2010 could provide important clues as to how results in the sector will materialise over the course of the year. Growth data in OECD countries remains mixed and could yet revert to lower levels. In the meantime, OPEC countries continue to over-produce, which adds pressure to existing high commercial inventories and further moves oil market fundamentals away from price dynamics that are being driven by increased activity in oil futures markets.
Within the downstream segment, Fitch anticipates it could take up to three years to rebalance global demand and overcapacity for refined products to a level significant enough for refining profits to fully revert to the long-term average.
The 22 March 2010 report, entitled 'European Oil Majors - Update', can be accessed by copying the following URL
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=505294 into your browser.
