Imark
Forumer storico
Intanto migliora l'outlook anche dell'ungherese MOL, uno dei pochi titoli HY del comparto in Europa... passa a stabile da negativo. Una certa ripresa dei corsi petroliferi beneficia l'upstream, il downstream soffre ancora ma è previsto in miglioramento, seppur lieve, nel 2010.
Il risultato sono un leverage contenuto (net debt/EBITDA al 2,8x nel 2009, ben sotto il 3,5x che per S&P è la soglia critica per il rating assegnato a MOL) e una maggiore adeguatezza della capacità di generazione di cassa alla copertura del debito (FFO/debt nel range 20-25%).
MOL si giova inoltre di una politica finanziaria improntata a cautela: sebbene il capex per il biennio 2010 - 2011 sia ancora elevato, non sono in vista distribuzioni agli azionisti o nuove acquisizioni in misura tale da incidere negativamente sul quadro descritto.
MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas PLC Outlook Revised To Stable On Fair Metrics, Improving Operating Environment; 'BB+' Affirmed
· MOL's 2009 credit metrics are in line with the rating, and we believe the operating performance has shown better resilience than we anticipated in early 2009.
· As an integrated oil and gas player, MOL should benefit from strongly improved upstream conditions, while downstream markets should pick up only gradually.
· We are revising our outlook on MOL to stable and affirming the 'BB+' rating.
PARIS (Standard & Poor's) April 1, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has revised its outlook on Hungary-based integrated oil and gas company MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas PLC to stable from negative. At the same time Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'BB+' long-term corporate credit rating on MOL.
"The stable outlook reflects our expectations that industry conditions will improve in 2010 from the 2009 trough year," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lucas Sevenin. "We have also assumed that MOL will pursue a supportive financial policy with modest shareholder distributions and acquisitions, given material capital expenditure and still challenging refining industry conditions," said Mr. Sevenin. We would view a Standard & Poor's-adjusted ratio of FFO to debt of 20%-25% and debt to EBITDA below 3.5x as commensurate with the rating.
The outlook revision and rating affirmation reflect the following factors:
· 2009 credit metrics were commensurate with the rating, including our adjusted ratio of FFO to debt in the 20%-25% range, and our adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.8x, which is clearly below our 3.5x guidance;
· We think the group's financial policy has been supportive of the current rating, with modest shareholder distributions and acquisitions, and lower capital expenditure (capex) in 2009. Although investment levels are likely to remain significant in 2010-2011--we assume Hungarian forint (HUF)340 billion per year, about $1.8 billion--we do not expect significant acquisitions or shareholder distributions unless market conditions clearly improve and result in much higher free operating cash flow (FOCF) than we currently expect;
· Upstream conditions have already strongly improved, and we believe downstream conditions will gradually strengthen in 2010, as demand should further improve in MOL's Eastern European markets; the outlook for middle distillate crack spreads remains challenging, but refining results should pick-up from the stressed levels seen in 2009;
.Improving economic prospects compared with the beginning of 2009 in the core countries where the group operates, including Hungary and Croatia.
Il risultato sono un leverage contenuto (net debt/EBITDA al 2,8x nel 2009, ben sotto il 3,5x che per S&P è la soglia critica per il rating assegnato a MOL) e una maggiore adeguatezza della capacità di generazione di cassa alla copertura del debito (FFO/debt nel range 20-25%).
MOL si giova inoltre di una politica finanziaria improntata a cautela: sebbene il capex per il biennio 2010 - 2011 sia ancora elevato, non sono in vista distribuzioni agli azionisti o nuove acquisizioni in misura tale da incidere negativamente sul quadro descritto.
MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas PLC Outlook Revised To Stable On Fair Metrics, Improving Operating Environment; 'BB+' Affirmed
· MOL's 2009 credit metrics are in line with the rating, and we believe the operating performance has shown better resilience than we anticipated in early 2009.
· As an integrated oil and gas player, MOL should benefit from strongly improved upstream conditions, while downstream markets should pick up only gradually.
· We are revising our outlook on MOL to stable and affirming the 'BB+' rating.
PARIS (Standard & Poor's) April 1, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has revised its outlook on Hungary-based integrated oil and gas company MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas PLC to stable from negative. At the same time Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'BB+' long-term corporate credit rating on MOL.
"The stable outlook reflects our expectations that industry conditions will improve in 2010 from the 2009 trough year," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lucas Sevenin. "We have also assumed that MOL will pursue a supportive financial policy with modest shareholder distributions and acquisitions, given material capital expenditure and still challenging refining industry conditions," said Mr. Sevenin. We would view a Standard & Poor's-adjusted ratio of FFO to debt of 20%-25% and debt to EBITDA below 3.5x as commensurate with the rating.
The outlook revision and rating affirmation reflect the following factors:
· 2009 credit metrics were commensurate with the rating, including our adjusted ratio of FFO to debt in the 20%-25% range, and our adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.8x, which is clearly below our 3.5x guidance;
· We think the group's financial policy has been supportive of the current rating, with modest shareholder distributions and acquisitions, and lower capital expenditure (capex) in 2009. Although investment levels are likely to remain significant in 2010-2011--we assume Hungarian forint (HUF)340 billion per year, about $1.8 billion--we do not expect significant acquisitions or shareholder distributions unless market conditions clearly improve and result in much higher free operating cash flow (FOCF) than we currently expect;
· Upstream conditions have already strongly improved, and we believe downstream conditions will gradually strengthen in 2010, as demand should further improve in MOL's Eastern European markets; the outlook for middle distillate crack spreads remains challenging, but refining results should pick-up from the stressed levels seen in 2009;
.Improving economic prospects compared with the beginning of 2009 in the core countries where the group operates, including Hungary and Croatia.
