Come vedi la situazione Seat in prospettiva? Ciao e grazie.
Ciao Marco, non la seguo così da vicino... con l'ultimo aumento di capitale hanno giocato una buona carta sul piano della liquidità, però, a quanto leggo, è difficile che basti, dovranno ancora ristrutturare il debito e nel mentre ridurre il leverage (dichiarato a quota 6x a fine 2008). Dunque hanno guadagnato un po' di tempo, ma è da vedere come gli tornerà utile, visto che la parte più profittevole del business delle directories è quella della vendita pubblicitaria alle piccole aziende (qui da noi in fortissima sofferenza) e della gestione database per il direct marketing (settore in crisi già prima della crisi, e che per sua natura è piuttosto ciclico) ...
La situazione è aggravata dalla presenza di consistente debito bancario sovraordinato rispetto al bond, e con stime di recupero delle agenzie (che di solito sono di manica larga) inferiore alla pari. Ergo, in caso di default con ristrutturazione del debito, qui si paga dazio molto severo.
Recupero l'ultima rating action di S&P in portafoglio: a qualcosa serve, almeno per fare il punto... A maggio 2009, questa agenzia prospettava aulteriori operazioni di consolidamento di liquidità e di riduzione del leverage nei successivi 18 mesi
SEAT PagineGialle SpA Issuer Ratings Affirmed At 'BB-' After Rights Issue; Off CreditWatch Negative; Outlook Negative
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) May 12, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it affirmed its 'BB-' long-term corporate credit ratings on Italy-based classified directories publisher SEAT PagineGialle SpA (SEAT). The outlook is negative. We also affirmed the 'BB-' rating on the second lien notes issued by SEAT's Luxembourg-based subsidiary Lighthouse International Co. S.A.
In addition, we removed all of the ratings on SEAT and on the second lien notes from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Dec. 4, 2008. At the same time, we assigned a 'BB' rating to the first lien debt issued by SEAT for an original amount of €2.6 billion, one notch higher than the corporate credit rating. We also assigned to this debt a recovery rating of '2', indicating our expectation of substantial (70%-90%) recovery in the event of a payment default.
The rating actions followed the group's recent completion of a €200 million rights issue, which was announced in December 2008. The rights issue formed part of the group's agreement with its bank lenders to modify some of the terms of its original €2.6 billion credit facilities due in 2012 and 2013, most notably maintenance covenant thresholds.
On Dec. 31, 2008, SEAT reported gross consolidated debt of £3.4 billion, including about £76 million of deferred financing fees.
"We consider the timely execution and size of the rights issue as a key rating support because it should provide an adequate liquidity cushion for the group in the next few quarters, in the context of the tough operational environment for SEAT's classified directories publishing," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Manuela Gabetta.
In our view, the risks that the steep economic downturn might affect SEAT's 2009 operating performance beyond the group's recent market guidance are substantial.
We therefore see the need for some additional comfort on liquidity for the next 18 months. SEAT has indicated it has an EBITDA target of €560 million for 2009. "The negative outlook reflects the operating risks for SEAT in 2009 and 2010 and the possible implications for leverage and cash flow measures," added Ms. Gabetta.
Rating pressures would mount if EBITDA were to turn materially weaker than expected, renewing pressures on covenant headroom.
In particular, any indication of covenant headroom dipping to less than 15% or of weaker-than-expected discretionary cash flow generation (which we estimate at more than €100 million) could lead to a downgrade.
In addition, we could lower the ratings if the group were unable to reduce gross debt to EBITDA from its peak of about 6.0x at year-end 2008 to about 5.5x by Dec. 31, 2009. Equally, we could revise the outlook to stable if the company were to preserve its healthy cash flow generation capacity, despite the cyclical
downturn, while continuing to deleverage
