Report odierno di un broker, a chi interessa:
EUR USD (1.4975) It was Ben Bernanke’s turn to talk about global
imbalances yesterday. Typical among US officials lately has been to
see the problem in terms of trade and capital flows. Exporter nations
such as China must consume more (of their own output as well as of
America’s); the US must save more (allowing more output to be freed
for export). Exchange rate adjustment was not an explicit prescription,
although there are few commentators who doubt the justification for a
weaker dollar. In Europe, the talk is all about FX rates. Ahead of a
Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker
expressed fears that a strong euro would impede export growth.
Although it is clear that the level of external demand is the principal
determinant of export success, i.e., the recession is hurting exports,
not the euro, the loudest appeals for a ‘strong dollar’ now come from
Trichet, Lagarde and Juncker. Yet with crude oil at $80, the strong
euro clearly shielding the zone from imported inflation, allowing the
ECB to keep rates lower for longer. This loose monetary policy is
arguably more useful for European firms and households than a low
euro FX rate. And what if these finance ministers get their wish for a
weaker euro and exports do not improve, what will they blame then?
As a result, we do not believe these appeals reflect an interest in a
trend reversal. Rather, by ‘strong’, European officials mean a dollar
that is not deliberately devalued by US policy.
We hike the objective for our bullish strategy to 1.5125 today (earlier
resistances are probably too weak to halt the upswing now). The risklimit
must also be tightened to 1.4855.
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