Titoli di Stato area Euro PORTOGALLO Operativo titoli di stato (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione lorixnt2
- Data di Inizio
tommy271
Forumer storico
tommy271
Forumer storico
Crisi: Portogallo; scioperano anche forze ordine ed esercito
Contro bilancio 2014 approvato dal Governo
23 ottobre, 19:09
L'associazione nazionale dei sergenti delle Forze armate ha annunciato una manifestazione di protesta per il 12 novembre a Lisbona; un'altra protesta, sempre nella capitale, è stata annunciata dall'Unione delle forze dell'ordine.
Queste due ultime iniziative si aggiungono agli scioperi che erano stati proclamati dai sindacati subito dopo l'approvazione del bilancio da parte del Governo. il 25 ottobre si fermeranno i lavoratori del settore postale; l'8 novembre sarà la volta dei dipendenti pubblici, settore particolarmente colpito dal provvedimenti di austerità; il 9 di novembre lo sciopero riguarderà i dipendenti del settore trasporti e comunicazione.
Tra le altre misure impopolari figurano la riduzione dei salari nel pubblico impiego e l'aumento di 5 ore settimanali dell'orario, l'aumento dell'età pensionabile a 66 anni, il blocco delle pensioni di reversibilita' se il cumulo supera i duemila euro mensili.
Il bilancio prevede una manovra di 3,9 miliardi (il 2,3% del PIL) per rispettare i paramenti imposti dalla Troika (UE, BCE, FMI) per la concessione di 78 miliardi nel 2011, e che per il 2014 prevedono un disavanzo del 4%.
Contro bilancio 2014 approvato dal Governo
23 ottobre, 19:09
L'associazione nazionale dei sergenti delle Forze armate ha annunciato una manifestazione di protesta per il 12 novembre a Lisbona; un'altra protesta, sempre nella capitale, è stata annunciata dall'Unione delle forze dell'ordine.
Queste due ultime iniziative si aggiungono agli scioperi che erano stati proclamati dai sindacati subito dopo l'approvazione del bilancio da parte del Governo. il 25 ottobre si fermeranno i lavoratori del settore postale; l'8 novembre sarà la volta dei dipendenti pubblici, settore particolarmente colpito dal provvedimenti di austerità; il 9 di novembre lo sciopero riguarderà i dipendenti del settore trasporti e comunicazione.
Tra le altre misure impopolari figurano la riduzione dei salari nel pubblico impiego e l'aumento di 5 ore settimanali dell'orario, l'aumento dell'età pensionabile a 66 anni, il blocco delle pensioni di reversibilita' se il cumulo supera i duemila euro mensili.
Il bilancio prevede una manovra di 3,9 miliardi (il 2,3% del PIL) per rispettare i paramenti imposti dalla Troika (UE, BCE, FMI) per la concessione di 78 miliardi nel 2011, e che per il 2014 prevedono un disavanzo del 4%.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Portogallo: Fitch conferma rating a BB+, outlook negativo
Milano, 23 ott - Fitch ha confermato il rating del Portogallo a BB+ con outlook negativo.
La decisione di confermare il rating, spiega Fitch in un comunicato, riflette i continui miglioramenti registrati fino ad ora in base al programma di salvataggio varato dalla troika Ue-Bce-Fmi e l'impegno dimostrato dal governo per il consolidamento dei conti.
Inoltre, prosegue Fitch, l'economia e' migliorata di recente e dovrebbe tornare alla crescita nel 2014.
Milano, 23 ott - Fitch ha confermato il rating del Portogallo a BB+ con outlook negativo.
La decisione di confermare il rating, spiega Fitch in un comunicato, riflette i continui miglioramenti registrati fino ad ora in base al programma di salvataggio varato dalla troika Ue-Bce-Fmi e l'impegno dimostrato dal governo per il consolidamento dei conti.
Inoltre, prosegue Fitch, l'economia e' migliorata di recente e dovrebbe tornare alla crescita nel 2014.
C.Bonacieux
Forumer attivo
tommy271
Forumer storico
e allora perché l'outlook negativo?
Gli obiettivi non sono stati centrati, il governo è fragile e dovrà fare una manovra di correzione.
Tuttavia, non mancano gli spunti positivi.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Fitch Affirms Portugal at 'BB+'; Outlook Negative
Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:50am EDT
LONDON, October 23 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has affirmed Portugal's 'Long-term foreign and local currency IDRs at 'BB+' with a Negative Outlook. The 'B' Short-term foreign currency IDR and the 'A+' Country Ceiling have also been affirmed.
KEY RATING DRIVERS The affirmation reflects continued progress under the IMF-EU programme to date and the government's demonstrated commitment to fiscal discipline in spite of several political and institutional setbacks.
Moreover, the economy has picked up recently and Fitch expects growth in 2014. However, political and implementation risks remain high and warrant, in our view, the maintenance of the Negative Outlook.
The affirmation of Portugal's 'BB+' rating reflects the following key rating drivers:
-Portugal is characterised by large fiscal imbalances, high indebtedness and has suffered from weak economic performance over the last six years.
These factors make Portugal particularly vulnerable to adverse shocks. This explains Portugal's rating level despite its high per-capita income relative to its 'BB' category peers.
-The Portuguese economy is making progress with its external adjustment process.
The current account is likely to reach a surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2013 from a deficit of 11% of GDP in 2009.
-The 2014 draft budget, if fully implemented, would imply a significant fiscal deficit narrowing to 4% from 9.9% in 2010, albeit Fitch forecasts some slippage to a deficit of 4.5% for 2014. Moreover, planned measures consist mainly of expenditure cuts and should have a less detrimental effect on GDP than in previous budgets.
-Economic growth surprised on the upside in the first half of the year. Following 10 consecutive quarters of contraction, real GDP grew 1.1% qoq in Q213. In annual terms, real GDP declined 2.1% versus a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter. Fitch revised its 2013 forecast to negative 1.8% of GDP from negative 2.6% of GDP in June and projects growth of 0.2% in 2014.
-Portugal's EUR78bn financial assistance programme and the government's commitment to its conditions alleviate short-term liquidity risks, thereby supporting the sovereign ratings.
-Structural reforms to achieve improvement in productivity have been central to the adjustment programme. The number of measures already implemented is extensive, considering both the fragile underlying macroeconomic environment and compared with eurozone peers.
-The long-term fiscal cost of an ageing population is one of the most stable in the EU, due to past reforms.
-The intensity of the eurozone crisis has eased over the past 12 months reflecting progress with the country's fiscal and reform plans and policy enhancements at the EU level, including the ECB's outright monetary transactions and gradual steps towards banking union. Nevertheless, in Fitch's view the eurozone crisis is not over and the risk of further market volatility remains material.
The Negative Outlook on Portugal's foreign and local currency IDRs reflects the following factors:
-There are implementation risks to the 2014 budget. In this respect, potential rulings by the Constitutional Court are the biggest risk. Although the government has committed to reformulate the budget law in the event that measures are deemed unconstitutional by the Court, such an outcome is likely to delay or weaken fiscal consolidation.
-Political risk remains significant. Cross-party commitment to the programme has somewhat waned in 2013. The opposition Socialist party has taken a strong stance against the fiscal consolidation programme, but will likely be involved in negotiations regarding further official support when the current programme ends as elections are due in 2015. Any lack of cross-party support for additional official sector assistance could undermine investor confidence and reduce the likelihood of such assistance being provided. Such an outcome would be negative for the ratings.
-Public debt dynamics are worsening, reflecting a slower consolidation path than previously anticipated and some one-off factors. Fitch now forecasts general government gross debt (GGGD) to peak in 2014-15 at around 130% of GDP before declining gradually from 2016, and stabilising at 116% of GDP by 2022. This compares with Fitch's previous projections in November 2012 of GGGD peaking at 124% in 2014 and declining to 116% of GDP by 2020.
-Despite the large external adjustment, net external debt remains high at an estimated 82% of GDP in 2013. This is the legacy of over-borrowing in the decade to 2009, particularly in the non-financial corporate sector. Portugal may only achieve a more marked decline in external debt ratios from larger current account surpluses.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Negative Outlook reflects the following risk factors that may, individually or collectively, result in a downgrade of the ratings:
-Political crisis or institutional gridlock that threatens material fiscal slippage and undermines successful completion of the adjustment programme
-Material deviation from the adjustment programme that threatens the provision of additional official support in the event that full market access is not regained by the end of the current programme
-Material upward revision in Fitch's forecast for the peak in the GGGD/GDP ratio Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to the Outlook being revised to Stable include:
-Sustained return to economic growth and evidence that public debt is stabilising
-Securing a credible precautionary programme from June 2014 and/or regaining market access on sustainable terms
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch assumes that fiscal consolidation is maintained beyond the programme period to ensure an exit from the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) by 2015, in line with the government's stability programme.
Fitch assumes that Portugal will gradually regain market access, supported by a post programme precautionary agreement with the troika.
In its debt sustainability analysis, Fitch assumes an average primary surplus of 3% of GDP, potential growth of 1.5%, a GDP deflator of 1.7% over 2016-22 and gradual regaining of market access from 2014 reflected in higher marginal cost of funding.
Should the Constitutional Court reject part of the measures in the 2014 draft budget law, Fitch assumes that the government will adopt necessary alternative measures to comply with the IMF-EU programme.
Fitch assumes there will be progress in deepening fiscal and financial integration at the eurozone level in line with commitments by policy makers. It also assumes that the risk of fragmentation of the eurozone remains low.
Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:50am EDT
LONDON, October 23 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has affirmed Portugal's 'Long-term foreign and local currency IDRs at 'BB+' with a Negative Outlook. The 'B' Short-term foreign currency IDR and the 'A+' Country Ceiling have also been affirmed.
KEY RATING DRIVERS The affirmation reflects continued progress under the IMF-EU programme to date and the government's demonstrated commitment to fiscal discipline in spite of several political and institutional setbacks.
Moreover, the economy has picked up recently and Fitch expects growth in 2014. However, political and implementation risks remain high and warrant, in our view, the maintenance of the Negative Outlook.
The affirmation of Portugal's 'BB+' rating reflects the following key rating drivers:
-Portugal is characterised by large fiscal imbalances, high indebtedness and has suffered from weak economic performance over the last six years.
These factors make Portugal particularly vulnerable to adverse shocks. This explains Portugal's rating level despite its high per-capita income relative to its 'BB' category peers.
-The Portuguese economy is making progress with its external adjustment process.
The current account is likely to reach a surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2013 from a deficit of 11% of GDP in 2009.
-The 2014 draft budget, if fully implemented, would imply a significant fiscal deficit narrowing to 4% from 9.9% in 2010, albeit Fitch forecasts some slippage to a deficit of 4.5% for 2014. Moreover, planned measures consist mainly of expenditure cuts and should have a less detrimental effect on GDP than in previous budgets.
-Economic growth surprised on the upside in the first half of the year. Following 10 consecutive quarters of contraction, real GDP grew 1.1% qoq in Q213. In annual terms, real GDP declined 2.1% versus a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter. Fitch revised its 2013 forecast to negative 1.8% of GDP from negative 2.6% of GDP in June and projects growth of 0.2% in 2014.
-Portugal's EUR78bn financial assistance programme and the government's commitment to its conditions alleviate short-term liquidity risks, thereby supporting the sovereign ratings.
-Structural reforms to achieve improvement in productivity have been central to the adjustment programme. The number of measures already implemented is extensive, considering both the fragile underlying macroeconomic environment and compared with eurozone peers.
-The long-term fiscal cost of an ageing population is one of the most stable in the EU, due to past reforms.
-The intensity of the eurozone crisis has eased over the past 12 months reflecting progress with the country's fiscal and reform plans and policy enhancements at the EU level, including the ECB's outright monetary transactions and gradual steps towards banking union. Nevertheless, in Fitch's view the eurozone crisis is not over and the risk of further market volatility remains material.
The Negative Outlook on Portugal's foreign and local currency IDRs reflects the following factors:
-There are implementation risks to the 2014 budget. In this respect, potential rulings by the Constitutional Court are the biggest risk. Although the government has committed to reformulate the budget law in the event that measures are deemed unconstitutional by the Court, such an outcome is likely to delay or weaken fiscal consolidation.
-Political risk remains significant. Cross-party commitment to the programme has somewhat waned in 2013. The opposition Socialist party has taken a strong stance against the fiscal consolidation programme, but will likely be involved in negotiations regarding further official support when the current programme ends as elections are due in 2015. Any lack of cross-party support for additional official sector assistance could undermine investor confidence and reduce the likelihood of such assistance being provided. Such an outcome would be negative for the ratings.
-Public debt dynamics are worsening, reflecting a slower consolidation path than previously anticipated and some one-off factors. Fitch now forecasts general government gross debt (GGGD) to peak in 2014-15 at around 130% of GDP before declining gradually from 2016, and stabilising at 116% of GDP by 2022. This compares with Fitch's previous projections in November 2012 of GGGD peaking at 124% in 2014 and declining to 116% of GDP by 2020.
-Despite the large external adjustment, net external debt remains high at an estimated 82% of GDP in 2013. This is the legacy of over-borrowing in the decade to 2009, particularly in the non-financial corporate sector. Portugal may only achieve a more marked decline in external debt ratios from larger current account surpluses.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Negative Outlook reflects the following risk factors that may, individually or collectively, result in a downgrade of the ratings:
-Political crisis or institutional gridlock that threatens material fiscal slippage and undermines successful completion of the adjustment programme
-Material deviation from the adjustment programme that threatens the provision of additional official support in the event that full market access is not regained by the end of the current programme
-Material upward revision in Fitch's forecast for the peak in the GGGD/GDP ratio Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to the Outlook being revised to Stable include:
-Sustained return to economic growth and evidence that public debt is stabilising
-Securing a credible precautionary programme from June 2014 and/or regaining market access on sustainable terms
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch assumes that fiscal consolidation is maintained beyond the programme period to ensure an exit from the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) by 2015, in line with the government's stability programme.
Fitch assumes that Portugal will gradually regain market access, supported by a post programme precautionary agreement with the troika.
In its debt sustainability analysis, Fitch assumes an average primary surplus of 3% of GDP, potential growth of 1.5%, a GDP deflator of 1.7% over 2016-22 and gradual regaining of market access from 2014 reflected in higher marginal cost of funding.
Should the Constitutional Court reject part of the measures in the 2014 draft budget law, Fitch assumes that the government will adopt necessary alternative measures to comply with the IMF-EU programme.
Fitch assumes there will be progress in deepening fiscal and financial integration at the eurozone level in line with commitments by policy makers. It also assumes that the risk of fragmentation of the eurozone remains low.
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
Crisi: Portogallo, migliaia in piazza contro tagli bilancio
Budget 2014 approvato in prima lettura
01 novembre, 16:47
(ANSAmed) - LISBONA - Migliaia di portoghesi hanno manifestato davanti al parlamento per protestare contro i severi tagli alla spesa pubblica previsti nel bilancio 2014, che il parlamento ha votato oggi in prima lettura.
"Governo fuori legge", "il bilancio è un furto" e "Basta la troika" si poteva leggere sui cartelli dei dimostranti che avevano come obiettivo la coalizione di centro destra al potere e la troika Ue-Bce-Fmi.
"Per il governo e' arrivata l'ora di andarsene" scandivano i manifestanti che hanno risposto all'appello della Cgtp, principale confederazione sindacale portoghese, vicina al partito comunista.
La bozza di bilancio, la cui versione finale sara' votata il 26 novembre, prevede risparmi ed entrate supplementari pari a 3,9 miliardi di euro, equivalenti al 2,3% del pil.
Secondo il governo, la legge di bilancio permettera' al Paese di concludere nel giugno 2014, come previsto, il programma di rigore e riforme negoziate con l'Unione europea e il Fondo monetario internazionale nel magio 2011, in cambio di un prestito di 78 miliardi di euro.
(ANSAmed).
Budget 2014 approvato in prima lettura
01 novembre, 16:47
(ANSAmed) - LISBONA - Migliaia di portoghesi hanno manifestato davanti al parlamento per protestare contro i severi tagli alla spesa pubblica previsti nel bilancio 2014, che il parlamento ha votato oggi in prima lettura.
"Governo fuori legge", "il bilancio è un furto" e "Basta la troika" si poteva leggere sui cartelli dei dimostranti che avevano come obiettivo la coalizione di centro destra al potere e la troika Ue-Bce-Fmi.
"Per il governo e' arrivata l'ora di andarsene" scandivano i manifestanti che hanno risposto all'appello della Cgtp, principale confederazione sindacale portoghese, vicina al partito comunista.
La bozza di bilancio, la cui versione finale sara' votata il 26 novembre, prevede risparmi ed entrate supplementari pari a 3,9 miliardi di euro, equivalenti al 2,3% del pil.
Secondo il governo, la legge di bilancio permettera' al Paese di concludere nel giugno 2014, come previsto, il programma di rigore e riforme negoziate con l'Unione europea e il Fondo monetario internazionale nel magio 2011, in cambio di un prestito di 78 miliardi di euro.
(ANSAmed).