Titoli di Stato area Euro PORTOGALLO Operativo titoli di stato

[tommy271]

Portogallo: Moody's, preoccupano prospettive crescita a lungo termine




2010-10-18 Ma ok risposte di Lisbona a pressioni mercato e richieste Ue (Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) -


Londra, 18 ott - Il rating 'A1' con outlook stabile assegnato al debito pubblico del Portogallo "tiene conto da un lato dell'elevata forza delle istituzioni del Paese e della bassa probabilita' di eventi negativi, dall'altro del basso tasso di crescita in prospettiva e del peggioramento dei parametri di indebitamento del Governo".
E' quanto scrive Moody's in un rapporto sul Portogallo.

L'agenzia di valutazione del credito ha declassato il Paese il 13 luglio, abbassando il rating sul debito di lungo termine da 'Aa2' con outlook negativo a 'A1' con outlook stabile.

Nel rapporto, Moody's sottolinea che il Governo portoghese "sta rispondendo in modo adeguato alle pressioni di mercato e alle richieste della Commissione Ue a livello di consolidamento di bilancio".

L'irrigidimento delle politiche di bilancio ha aumentato il rischio di una recessione 'double dip' dell'economia portoghese, ma non e' questo il rischio principale per il rating sovrano del Paese, quando piuttosto le deboli prospettive di crescita nel lungo termine che incideranno ulteriormente sugli introiti governativi, a meno che non si vedano i primi frutti delle recenti riforme strutturali, limitando gli spazi a disposizione per invertire le dinamiche negative del debito.


***
Il giudizio di Moody's in italiano.



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[tommy271]

Portugal opposition sets terms to back budget





Wed Oct 20, 2010 4:48am EDT

* PSD insists on smaller tax hikes, more spending cuts *
Wants big infrastructure plans suspended
* Analysts expect deal after tough negotiations (Updates with analysts, market recation)


By Axel Bugge and Sergio Goncalves LISBON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Portugal's main opposition party set conditions on Wednesday for supporting an austerity budget, seeking to shift the onus onto the minority Socialist government to cut public spending further.

Financial markets see Portugal as one of the weak links in the euro zone and view a tight budget as critical to restoring confidence in the country's finances.
Analysts expect a deal to be reached for the budget to pass.

The terms outlined by the centre-right Social Democrats (PSD), who initially opposed any tax increase, included a smaller than proposed rise in value added sales tax.
They remain far from the government's proposals.

Other conditions include a suspension of big infrastructure projects and independent monitoring of public finances. "The conditions have been set, it is up to the government to meet the conditions to approve the budget," PSD secretary general Miguel Relvas told journalists in the early hours of Wednesday after a five-hour meeting of the party's council.

There was no immediate reaction from the government but Finance Mininster Fernando Teixeira dos Santos has said he will consider all proposals that may lead to a budget deal.
"The PSD is showing it does not want to give unconditional support, but the basis for negotiations is there now.

I believe that voting down the budget bill on Oct. 29 is out of the question," said Viriato Soromenho-Marques, political scientist with the University of Lisbon.
Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates has threatened to resign if the budget is not approved.

"The PSD did show that there is a will to have a budget.
The finance minister's stance was also positive.
The cold war continues, with both sides seeking a tactical victory, but there is no alternative to having a budget," Soromenho-Marques said.

WAR OF NERVES

In an editorial, Portugal's leading daily Publico said: "The war of nerves is here to stay."
It predicted difficult negotiations, but added that "at the end of the day, however, the Socialists and the PSD will come to terms".

Giada Giani, a Citi economist in London said she viewed the PSD's decision as positive overall.
"It's a bit of a constructive move, a kind of compromise, especially on the value added tax.
The other requests are not out of line either.

I think the government will have to negotiate and they will be pressured by the Europeans to have a deal on the budget," she said.
The risk premium on Portuguese bonds, which has narrowed to the tightest level in nearly two months after hitting a euro lifetime high at the end of last month, widened slightly on Wednesday.
Traders cited the budget tightrope as one reason.

Portugal's euro zone partners have been pressing the country to pass the budget, concerned that failure would force up bond yields and increase the likelihood of a Greek-style bailout.
Relvas said the PSD's governing council had also empowered its political commission -- a smaller grouping of party leaders -- to make the final decision on backing the budget vote, which will take place in parliament on Oct. 29.

The government, which does not have the numbers in parliament to pass the budget without the PSD's support, had warned of political chaos if the opposition did not support the budget, but has said it was open to negotations.
PSD leaders accused Socrates of trying to blackmail them with his resignation threat into voting for a budget with which they do not agree.

One-third of the government's deficit reduction plan for next year hinges on tax hikes.
The rest comes from spending cuts, including a five-percent cut in civil servants' salaries.
The government aims to cut the budget deficit to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2011 from 7.3 percent this year. In 2009 it reached 9.3 percent.

 

[tommy271]

L'analisi di AXA sul Portogallo, da leggere per chi vuol investire nel paese lusitano.

FondiOnLine.it

 

[tommy271]

Portogallo, opposizione pronta a negoziare su piano austerity

giovedì 21 ottobre 2010 15:29



LISBONA, 21 ottobre (Reuters) - Il Partito sociademocratico (Psd), il principale partito dell'opposizione di centro-destra in Portogallo, ha nominato un gruppo di negoziatori per aprire la discussione con il governo di minoranza socialista sulla manovra fiscale 2011.
Un portavoce del Psd ha spiegato a Reuters che i colloqui inizieranno "nei prossimi giorni" e saranno gestiti da un gruppo di cinque persone guidate dall'ex ministro delle Finanze Eduardo Catroga.
L'appoggio dell'opposizione è fondamentale per l'approvazione del piano di austerità, considerato dai mercati un passaggio fondamentale per l'allontanamento del paese dalle sabbie mobili di una possibile crisi finanziaria simile a quella greca.
Dopo settimane di contrapposizioni e incertezze ieri il governo di Lisbona si è detto disponibile a considerare tutte le proposte che possano portare al raggiungimento di un accordo sulla Finanziaria.
Per il governo la trattava verrà condotta dal ministro delle Finanze in carica Fernando Teixeira dos Santos.
Il Psd cheide un mix di provvedimenti diversi rispetto a quelli propsti dall'esecutivo, con meno rialzi alle tasse e più tagli alla spesa.
Il leader del Psd Pedro Passos Coelho ha dichiarato che il suo partito potrebbe astenersi in Parlamento qualora le sue proposte di modifica del piano venissero accettate.

 

[tommy271]

Commenti:

Il Portogallo si riallontana dall'obiettivo - Il Sole 24 ORE

 

[C.Bonacieux]

Commenti:

Il Portogallo si riallontana dall'obiettivo - Il Sole 24 ORE

Sì, però mi pare che le quotazioni non ne abbiano risentito troppo.

 

[tommy271]

Sì, però mi pare che le quotazioni non ne abbiano risentito troppo.

Le quotazioni seguono un pò l'onda del Club Med: si sale e si scende di riflesso.
Un giro di boa sarà l'approvazione agli inizi di novembre del programma antideficit da parte del Parlamento di Lisbona.
L'operazione però è lunga e macchinosa: difficile una sintesi tra maggioranza e opposizione.

 

[tommy271]

Portuguese Budget Talks May Sustain Bond Rally: Euro Credit

October 26, 2010, 5:26 AM EDT

By Joao Lima


Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Portugal’s biggest opposition party is poised to let the government pass its deepest budget cuts since at least the 1970s, giving a possible boost to the country’s bond market.
“There may be a short relief rally,” said Harvinder Sian, a London-based senior bond strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.
Portugal’s borrowing costs climbed to a euro-era record on Sept. 28 amid threats by the Social Democrats to oppose Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates’s plan to raise sales taxes to help trim the euro-region’s fourth-biggest deficit. Since then, prices rebounded, giving fixed-income investors returns of almost 5 percent.

“The market has been reacting quite positively on the assumption that the budget will go through,” said Sian, adding that the gains won’t last beyond the fourth quarter. “The market needs to see growth for that.”
The extra yield investors demand for holding 10-year Portuguese debt rather than German bunds, the European benchmark, fell to 318 basis points today from last month’s record 441. The spread is still about six times higher than a year ago and twice the level for Spain and Italy. Only Greek and Irish yields are at a bigger premium to bunds of the so-called euro peripherals.

Portugal plans tomorrow to sell as much as 1.25 billion euros ($1.75 billion) of bonds due October 2014 and June 2018. Borrowing costs dropped last week at an auction of 760 million euros of 12-month bills. The securities due in October 2011 were issued at an average yield of 2.886 percent on Oct. 20, compared with 3.333 percent at the previous auction.

Parliamentary Vote

Social Democratic leader Pedro Passos Coelho said Oct. 20 that the biggest opposition party may abstain in the parliamentary vote, allowing the 2011 budget to pass as long as the government considers its proposals.
Passos Coelho has called for “greater ambition” to cut state spending, reduce the proposed tax burden and prevent additional cost increases for infrastructure projects and public-private partnerships. The Social Democrats won’t impose “all-or-nothing” conditions on the government, he said.

Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos is negotiating the budget proposal with the Social Democrats, who are represented by former Finance Minister Eduardo Catroga. Parliament will start discussing the 2011 budget proposal on Nov. 2 and an initial vote is scheduled for the next day.

Support or Abstain

Socrates, who lacks a majority in parliament, needs the Social Democrats to either support the plan or abstain for the budget to be passed. European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Oct. 18 that he was “confident” the budget will get the required support from Portuguese lawmakers.
Socrates has proposed to lower the wage bill by 5 percent for public workers earning more than 1,500 euros a month, freeze hiring and raise the so-called value-added tax rate by 2 percentage points to 23 percent to trim a budget gap that reached 9.3 percent of gross domestic product last year.

The planned spending cuts for next year are set to be the biggest since at least 1978, according to Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office. Portugal was under the dictatorship of Antonio de Oliveira Salazar and his successor Marcelo Caetano from the 1930s until 1974.
Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 18 that the government was responding “adequately” to market pressures to lower the deficit. Portugal is rated A1 by Moody’s and A- by Standard & Poor’s.

Swaps Market

Credit default swaps on Portuguese debt declined to 332 basis points today from a record high of 472.6 on Sept. 29, according to prices from data provider CMA. Greece and Ireland are considered more risky than Portugal in the credit-default swaps market. The cost of insuring Greek debt for five years was 668.5 basis points and it was 427 for Irish securities.

“Portuguese problems are more long term,” David Owen, chief European economist at Jefferies International Ltd., said in an Oct. 15 interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown” program. “It has lost competitiveness inside EMU and it needs to address those issues.”

Owen’s comments were echoed by Moody’s, which said in its Oct. 18 report that “low growth will aggravate the weakness of government revenues unless recent structural reforms bear fruit.”
The government is counting on exports such as paper and wood products to help the economy as it scales back spending and investment. The budget includes a forecast for 0.2 percent growth in 2011 and 1.3 percent this year.

S&P Report

S&P said Oct. 4 that Portugal probably won’t default on its debt even as the economy fails to grow in the next two years. Jorg Decressin, head of the International Monetary Fund’s world economic studies division, said Oct. 6 that the Portuguese economy may contract 1.4 percent next year if the new deficit- cutting measures are taken into account.

The Bank of Portugal forecasts that GDP will expand 1.2 percent this year, compared with gains of about 1.6 percent in the 16-member euro region, according to projections last month from the European Central Bank. Economic growth in Portugal averaged less than 1 percent a year during the past decade, compared with 1.3 percent for the euro region.

The Finance Ministry forecasts Portugal’s public debt as a percentage of GDP will increase to 86.6 percent in 2011 from about 82.1 percent this year. Teixeira dos Santos, the finance minister, said Oct. 16 he expects the ratio to “stabilize” in 2012 and to start declining in 2013.

The government posted the highest budget gap last year in the euro region after Ireland, Greece and Spain. It aims to lower the shortfall to 7.3 percent this year, to 4.6 percent in 2011 and to meet the EU’s 3 percent limit in 2012.

***
Una bella panoramica di Bloomberg.

 

[tommy271]

Portugal: gov't, opposition fail deal on austerity

October 27, 2010 7:39 AM ET


LISBON, Portugal (AP) - Portugal's minority government and main opposition party have failed to agree on austerity measures designed to restore confidence in the country's debt-laden economy.
Portugal, like other eurozone countries Greece, Ireland and Spain, is battling a government debt crisis that has threatened to ruin its economy.
The center-left Socialist government wants to introduce steep tax hikes and spending cuts in next year's state budget but doesn't have enough votes in Parliament to enact the measures without the support of other parties.
After five days of negotiations the Social Democratic Party announced Wednesday it didn't agree with some of the proposed tax increases.
However, it hasn't said whether it will allow the state budget to pass in next week's vote by abstaining.


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Nulla di buono in vista...

 

[tommy271]

Portogallo, salta accordo maggioranza/opposizione su manovra

mercoledì 27 ottobre 2010 13:05




LISBONA, 27 ottobre (Reuters) - I socialdemocratici, all'opposizione in Portogallo contro un governo socialista ormai di minoranza, hanno interrotto la trattative chiave sulla legge finanziaria 2011.
Lo riferiscono funzionari Psd.
"I negoziati sono terminati e non c'è accordo" dice un portavoce dell'opposizione.
I socialdemocratici potrebbero così votare contro la manovra in parlamento, bloccandone il passaggio fino ad arrivare a una crisi politica dai potenziali effetti assai negativi sui costi della raccolta.
Sul mercato dei titoli di Stato il differenziale di rendimento tra il decennale portoghese e la controparte tedesca si allarga così di 4 centesimi a 325 punti base, dopo un minimo di seduta a 312 tick.
Un primo voto del parlamento sulla finanziaria 2011 è in agenda per il 3 novembre prossimo. L'emittente televisiva locale 'Sic' annuncia per questa sera alle 21 una dichiarazione dei leader Psd.