Analisi Intermarket ....quelli che.... Investire&tradare - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione Dogtown
- Data di Inizio
mmmmm
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
DDUKE
Viva i popoli, Viva le Nazioni europee, fanculo U€
Per quanto alle mie, ho il VIX siu massimi e con momentum ormai prossimo a zero, nella parte veloce.
Quindi, anche se è ancora presto per dirlo o confermarlo, si pende di più per una ripresa/laterale che discesa. Ovviamente se non mi arriva l'incrocio sulle veloci per adesso risulta essere un semplice calo di forza dell'indice di vola.
Quindi, anche se è ancora presto per dirlo o confermarlo, si pende di più per una ripresa/laterale che discesa. Ovviamente se non mi arriva l'incrocio sulle veloci per adesso risulta essere un semplice calo di forza dell'indice di vola.
c0ltran3
Forumer attivo
Buongiorno segnalo una parte del commento settimanale che appare sul sito Rajmond james:
" It was the first weekly loss for the Industrials in seven weeks and reinforced what I wrote in last Monday’s letter. To wit:
“Personally, I believe what is shaping up is a giant false upside breakout pattern that would be confirmed by a close below 1700 on the SPX, and reinforced by a break below 1684. However, in this business stubbornness is a dangerous trait! Accordingly this week, and next, should tell us if my cautionary call, within the context of a secular bull market, is going to play.”
And while last week was somewhat “telling,” the SPX tested, but did not close below my key pivot point of 1684. So we enter this week still thinking it is “kiss and tell” time. In numerous missives I have given a plethora of reasons why the mid-July through mid-August timeframe is the window for the first meaningful decline of the year to begin.
Well, it’s now mid-August and earnings season is just about in the rearview mirror. Admittedly, at least not to me, earnings remain better than most expected with 62.9% of all reporting companies beating estimates (68% for the S&P 500), while 56.6% of all reporting companies beat their revenue estimates. However, with earnings season about over, there will be no upside earnings catalyst for the next few months. Nor will there be any catalyst from the Federal Reserve until their September meeting. And, while there could be some consternation out of the D.C. beltway about debt ceilings, continuing resolutions and sequestration before Congress’s early-August recess, hereto there will be a political void over the next few months. So I will say it again, “We are at the perfect window for the first meaningful decline of the year, but it is likely within the context of a new bull market.” Of course, that begs the question, “Why?”
First, purchasing managers’ reports from around the world are improving (including China) with global economic growth registering its best reading in two years. Second, conditions are in place to suggest a capital expenditure cycle is about to commence. Indeed, strong readings in the purchasing managers’ index should compel corporate America to start spending money. And third, low inflation, a stronger dollar, and a faster-than-expected reduction in the budget deficit should allow price earnings multiples to expand. But even if PE multiples don’t expand, stocks can still trade higher. Consider this, the SPX is currently trading at a PE multiple of 15.5x based on the S&P’s earnings estimate for this year of $108.81. Next year’s bottom-up operating earnings estimate is $122.43. If in 2014 the SPX trades at a PE multiple of 15.5x on that year’s earnings estimate, it implies a price objective of ~1897. So even if we get the decline I have been looking for, do not get too bearish.
Surprisingly, while most of the major indices look like they are rolling over to the downside, some of the recently shunned sectors appear to have reversed to the upside. Just look at the charts of copper and coal, certainly two of the most hated industry groups out there. Take coal, as represented by the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Van Eck Global Market Vectors Coal (KOL/$18.50). It looks to have bottomed and turned up"
" It was the first weekly loss for the Industrials in seven weeks and reinforced what I wrote in last Monday’s letter. To wit:
“Personally, I believe what is shaping up is a giant false upside breakout pattern that would be confirmed by a close below 1700 on the SPX, and reinforced by a break below 1684. However, in this business stubbornness is a dangerous trait! Accordingly this week, and next, should tell us if my cautionary call, within the context of a secular bull market, is going to play.”
And while last week was somewhat “telling,” the SPX tested, but did not close below my key pivot point of 1684. So we enter this week still thinking it is “kiss and tell” time. In numerous missives I have given a plethora of reasons why the mid-July through mid-August timeframe is the window for the first meaningful decline of the year to begin.
Well, it’s now mid-August and earnings season is just about in the rearview mirror. Admittedly, at least not to me, earnings remain better than most expected with 62.9% of all reporting companies beating estimates (68% for the S&P 500), while 56.6% of all reporting companies beat their revenue estimates. However, with earnings season about over, there will be no upside earnings catalyst for the next few months. Nor will there be any catalyst from the Federal Reserve until their September meeting. And, while there could be some consternation out of the D.C. beltway about debt ceilings, continuing resolutions and sequestration before Congress’s early-August recess, hereto there will be a political void over the next few months. So I will say it again, “We are at the perfect window for the first meaningful decline of the year, but it is likely within the context of a new bull market.” Of course, that begs the question, “Why?”
First, purchasing managers’ reports from around the world are improving (including China) with global economic growth registering its best reading in two years. Second, conditions are in place to suggest a capital expenditure cycle is about to commence. Indeed, strong readings in the purchasing managers’ index should compel corporate America to start spending money. And third, low inflation, a stronger dollar, and a faster-than-expected reduction in the budget deficit should allow price earnings multiples to expand. But even if PE multiples don’t expand, stocks can still trade higher. Consider this, the SPX is currently trading at a PE multiple of 15.5x based on the S&P’s earnings estimate for this year of $108.81. Next year’s bottom-up operating earnings estimate is $122.43. If in 2014 the SPX trades at a PE multiple of 15.5x on that year’s earnings estimate, it implies a price objective of ~1897. So even if we get the decline I have been looking for, do not get too bearish.
Surprisingly, while most of the major indices look like they are rolling over to the downside, some of the recently shunned sectors appear to have reversed to the upside. Just look at the charts of copper and coal, certainly two of the most hated industry groups out there. Take coal, as represented by the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Van Eck Global Market Vectors Coal (KOL/$18.50). It looks to have bottomed and turned up"
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
c0ltran3
Forumer attivo
Io pure la penso così ma magari siamo in troppi a crederci e proprio per questo non accadrà.
